Lindsay Mitchell: Why is Luxon courting Opportunity?

Someone who applied for a job as Party Leader on SEEK has brought a team of seven into parliament.

Rodney Hide's analogy of Opportunity as the manufactured Monkees, an American imitation of the Beatles - along with a highly lucrative TV show - is apt. Qiulae Wong as Davy Jones is the recruited charismatic leader.

I was asked, "But if TOP are the Monkees, who are the Beatles?"

Rodney Hide: Wasted Electorate Votes

It’s not just the party votes for National that were wasted Saturday night. So too were the electorate votes for ACT and New Zealand First.

These votes did not add one extra MP to the centre right. That was 210,914 votes wasted.

And it mattered. The fate of the election may hang on Wairarapa. The margin there is just 139 votes in National’s favour. The specials could flip it. New Zealand First’s Ron Mark got 3,555 votes in that electorate. And didn’t get in. Those votes may well have cost the centre right the election.

 Tuesday November 10, 2026 

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Steven Gaskell: Helen Clark's Democracy Suddenly Needs Fixing – Funny That!

Well, here's an interesting development. Former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark is questioning whether the 2026 election might be "flawed". Apparently, our electoral system, voting rules and campaign funding have all become major concerns. Funny how these things seem to attract so much attention when the election numbers aren't going the way some people expected.

Caleb Anderson: State media coverage of the 2026 election warrants scrutiny

It is now widely believed, by a significant portion of the population, that state media, in its current form, is incapable of moderating its left wing bias. It seems wedded to ideological positions that make neutrality near impossible, has even given up attempts at even the appearance of neutrality, and is happy to wear its bias on its sleeves. 

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: There's no way Labour can go into 2029 with Chris Hipkins

So the talk has already turned, not surprisingly, to whether either of the Chrises will keep their jobs after the election.

Let's deal with Chris Hipkins first.

Chippy's gone, right?

Ryan Bridge: Our leaders should be attending APEC even in caretaker mode

Trump's going. Xi's going. Even Putin will be there.

But what about Christopher Luxon or Chris Hipkins?

The APEC Leaders meeting is next week up in China. Shenzhen.

Ani O'Brien: Before accusing the centre-Right of gaming the system.....

.....the Left should check out its own vote-splitting ‘rorts’

I have never given both my party vote and my electorate vote to the same party. It turns out I have been “rorting the system” in a “disturbing” manner all this time.

Never mind that as my politics have evolved, I have split my vote for both the Left and the Right. Never mind that we are given two votes because those votes do different things and if we were meant to use them only for the same party, there would be no point having two votes at all.

Pee Kay: Two Boring Chris’s; which one will call Qiulae?

“Two Boring Chris’s,” was my wife’s opinion and “…may the dullest Chris win” was the headline in the Herald a day or so before polling day.

Let’s be honest; was either Chris Luxon or Chris Hipkins ever capable of inspiring a single shred of genuine passion, let alone shifting political allegiances and forcing a radical change of vote? Hell no.

Ashley Church: A huge wake-up call for National

If you’re confused about what happened on election night, you’re probably not alone. After weeks of being told that this was going to be one of the closest elections in New Zealand’s history, we’ve ended up with a result that appears to leave the country in political limbo. Nobody has claimed victory, the special votes haven’t been counted, and there’s still talk of the possibility of a Labour-led government.

Richard Prebble: A landslide

Under First Past the Post, National would have won a landslide victory on Saturday’s electorate results.

National won 42 of the 71 electorates. All the other parties combined won just 29.

National would have had a majority of 13 seats over all the other parties combined and could have governed alone.

JC: A Win Is a Win

That’s about all that can be said for a near disastrous night for the right. Even then it’s ‘more likely’ than certain. If those on the right had taken National and Key’s advice to party vote National, the election would have been lost. We would have awakened on Sunday morning to a four-headed monster on the left and with no way back. Instead, and with good reason, voters on the right basically told them to sod off and went and did the right thing and split their vote. These are the people who deserve thanks for, hopefully, returning the coalition to power.

David Farrar: The breakdown of the 55th Parliament of New Zealand

There are provisionally 131 MPs, a record high, in the 55th Parliament of New Zealand. There are 71 electorate MPs and 60 list MPs.

On Patreon, I have done a detailed analysis of the breakdown of not just Parliament as a whole, but for each party. This answers questions like:

David Farrar: Two overhangs, but for different reasons

Te Pāti Māori announced in August that they did not want party votes. They explicitly said they want to create overhang. Their MPs did not even party vote for TPM. And their strategy worked.

In 2023 they got 3.1%. In 2026 they got 0.6%. That is an 80% reduction in their party vote, or a 2.5 percentage point drop. In July they were polling around 3% in the polls.

Rodney Hide: Glorious

I should not pick on Stuff’s political editor Henry Cooke, but then he’s so target-rich. One day I hope to report that he has something right.

(You may recall I earlier drew attention to his plan that Labour and National should ask the Governor-General to call another election should the government rely on an overhang. He appears to have dropped that idea.)

Mike's Minute: The winners and losers from election night

Obviously we will work through the machinations later but lets just run through the winners and losers of the night.

The winners:

 Monday November 9, 2026 

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Ryan Bridge: Luxon will need to pick up the phone to Opportunity

As predicted last week the strategy Luxon loathes is what got him back to power.

Thank you overhang.

His strategy of ruling Opportunity out didn't keep them out.

Damien Grant: We think we vote for radically different futures....

.....History proves we don’t

If your team won yesterday you may be feeling a twinge of joy. If not, perhaps you are feeling a sense of disappointment. Either way, let me bring you back to an equilibrium.

Elections, with a very few consequential exceptions, do not matter.

Colinxy: The Coalition Looks Set to Survive Another Election

Barring an unexpected twist from the special votes, the Coalition appears set to continue governing after yesterday’s election. While commentators are already searching for scenarios that might upend the result, the arithmetic currently favours continuing the existing arrangement.