The climate alarm media, the bureaucracy and the Green Energy industry follow an agenda which is served by inflating any short-term weather event into a climate calamity. They should take a long-term view.
Earth’s climate is never still – it is always changing, with long-term trends, medium-term reversals and minor oscillations. Humanity is best served by those who use good science to study geology, astronomy and climate history searching for clues to climate drivers and the underlying natural cycles and trends hidden in short-term weather fluctuations.
For the last 10,000 years Earth has
basked in the Holocene Interglacial which is the latest of many warm cycles
within the Pleistocene Ice Age. There are small warm and cool cycles within the
Holocene. Today we enjoy the Modern Warm Cycle (which started about calendar
1900) following the Little Ice Age which bottomed in about 1750.
What does the future hold? The past
gives clues to the future.
In every warm era, glaciers retreat,
ice sheets melt and sea levels rise. Coastal land, ports and settlements are
lost under the rising seas but tundra, grasslands and forests expand. Some
corals manage to grow as fast as the seas rise, but others are drowned in deep
water. The warmth drives more carbon dioxide from the seas, plants thrive,
deserts shrink and humans are well fed.
Then solar intensity wanes, solar
orbits change, less solar energy is received by the big northern lands, and the
warm Earth radiates more heat to space. It starts cooling.
As Earth enters a cold era, not all
of the winter snow melts over summer. The extra snow reflects more solar
radiation, leading to even colder winters. The snow-line and the tree-line
fluctuate lower, mountain passes are closed, and advancing glaciers threaten
mountain villages. Sea ice expands, ice sheets grow, lakes and rivers are
frozen, sea levels drop and coral reefs are stranded above the water line. The
cooling seas absorb life-giving carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and crops
fail; deserts expand, humans suffer poverty and famine, settlements are
abandoned, empires fall and some species disappear.
This has happened many times before
and will probably happen again.
But there are clues to the next big
phase for Earth’s climate.
Earth has two natural global
thermometers which can reveal short and long term trends – the advance and
retreat of glaciers, and the rise and fall of sea level.
If glaciers are growing and ice
sheets are advancing and getting thicker, it indicates that average global
temperature is falling.
Glaciologists have drilled and
analysed many of today’s glaciers. They have been surprised to discover that,
outside of Antarctica and Greenland, no glacial ice older than 4,000 years has
been found. For example, the Fremont Glacier in Wyoming half-way towards the
Equator is only a few hundred years old.
Naturally some of these new glaciers
can show melting and retreat during long spells of warm weather, but the mere
existence of glaciers today where none existed at the peak of the Holocene
warming over 3,000 years ago confirms what other studies show - Earth is
gradually cooling towards the next Glacial Cycle.
The second natural thermometer is the changing sea level caused by fluctuations
in the volume of ice and snow trapped on land, and by the expansion or
contraction in the volume of sea water as it warms or cools. Coastal and
near-shore locations show much evidence of past and recent sea level changes.
In warm eras, glaciers and ice sheets melt, sea water expands, sea levels rise
and offshore coral reefs become submerged and drown. Then as peak warming is
passed, ice starts to accumulate on land, cooling sea water contracts and sea
levels fall.
Even a moderate cooling event such as the Little Ice Age was sufficient to cause lowering of sea level and stranding of port cities and beaches.
Earth’s natural thermometers are now flashing an amber warning. The long-term
trends point to growing glaciers and falling sea level. These warn us that the
warm moist bountiful Holocene Era is past its peak. The next chapter in Earth’s
History will be a long, hungry, ice-bound era. Only humans who are good at
hunting and gathering or have easy access to nuclear power or carbon energy
will survive.
People who try to create a “Climate Crisis” out of extreme weather events or
short-term climate fluctuations (such as today’s Modern Warm Cycle) are like
Lord Nelson – their telescope is applied to the blind eye. They point to the
choppy waves from summer storms behind the ship, but fail to see the blizzard
approaching on the horizon ahead.
Al Gore was right in one thing – warm cycles coincide with high levels of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The warmth drove CO2 into the atmosphere, and
then the cooling oceans removed it again. Carbon dioxide variations are the
result, not the cause, of climate changes.
But never once, over eleven warm cycles covering the last million years, have
those high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide prevented the next glacial
cycle.
“Carbon Dioxide
Causes Global Warming
Like Wet Roads
Like Wet Roads
Cause Rain.”
Trying to remove or limit atmospheric carbon dioxide is a futile and costly gesture. Even if it were to succeed, by removing plant food from the atmosphere, it would increase the misery of the approaching cold, hungry era.
We may still have warm decades or even centuries ahead. But even when there is a heatwave in autumn, the winter still comes.
“Summer is Over
Fall is Fading . . . .
And Winter? Winter is Coming!”
John Kehr, 2011, “The Inconvenient
Skeptic”.
www.theinconvenientskeptic.com
www.theinconvenientskeptic.com
Viv Forbes has a degree in Applied Science, and long experience in soil science, pasture management and breeding and managing cattle and sheep.
Further Reading:
Sea levels and Temperature peaked at least 5000 years
ago:
http://notrickszone.com/2017/08/21/10000-to-5000-years-ago-global-sea-levels-were-3-meters-higher-temperatures-4-6-c-warmer/
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/10/australian-sea-levels-have-been-falling-for-7000-years/
http://notrickszone.com/2017/08/21/10000-to-5000-years-ago-global-sea-levels-were-3-meters-higher-temperatures-4-6-c-warmer/
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/10/australian-sea-levels-have-been-falling-for-7000-years/
Climate
Change – the last 20,000 years:
https://carbon-sense.com/2013/11/30/nothing-new-about-climate-change/
https://carbon-sense.com/2013/11/30/nothing-new-about-climate-change/
Temperature and Sea levels:
http://carbon-sense.com/index.php?s=sea+levels&Submit=Go
The De-icing of North America (animation):
https://youtu.be/wbsURVgoRD0
Himalayan Glaciers are Growing:
http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2012/04/himalaya-glaciers-are-growing/
“Most glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere have only formed in the last 4000 years”.
John
Kehr 2001 “The Inconvenient Skeptic” Chapter 8, p116-126
Al Gore manipulated the data to suit his agenda:
https://yournewswire.com/global-warming-scientist-theory/
4 comments:
Many of us now realise that there is no value in engaging in deba6e with Progressives on Climate or any other matter. What is of value is that we keep up to date with the best of reality from people like Viv. Here there is a sombre reading about what it will be like,[ and must have been like before],living in an ice age.
As a side effect I have to correct the image I had of Horatio Nelson. Following the affairs of Napoleon Bonoparte is a nasty business
Well stated Viv!!
I forwarded this article to James Shaw, so expect to see him on mainstream tv news expounding some hot day somewhere story within the next few days. That's how it has played out every time I send him some facts..
A.G.R - when it comes to the Green Party they are a waste of the awesome air we breath - I've sent info to them, they pass the buck and use their underlings to take the brunt - Shaw and Genter are prime examples of uselessness - this is why NZ should move toward independent MP's and an elected PM - political parties of all persuasions suck (eg their Little Red Books) and should be voted out of power - Independents Rock!
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