After 30 long years, the NZ Ministry for the Environment has stopped arguing that the science is on their side. They have had to accept that modern research has exploded their mantra that “agricultural methane causes 28 times as much warming as CO2”.
As I pointed out in “Mammoth Methane Mistake”, there is not the slightest ambiguity in the finding of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –
“…expressing methane emissions as CO2 equivalent of 28, overstates the effect on global surface temperature by a factor of 3-4”.
Let us not forget that the IPCC works on a consensus basis. They cannot take a scientific position that has not been approved by every one of its 194 member countries. Representatives of every government in the world have signed off the AR6, thereby signing on to its dogmatic finding regarding the traditional metric for the global warming potential (GWP) of methane.
As Al Gore likes to say: the science is now settled.
But, as we’ve all long known, climate science is never the only consideration. In fact, it doesn’t appear to be a factor at all. The discipline that attracts the Ministry is political science.
It’s very inconvenient
In a briefing note to Minister James Shaw (obtained under the OIA) the Ministry makes four arguments for continuing to pretend that methane has a real GWP of 28. Note that none of these arguments have anything to do with science:
1. To the extent that we don’t blame methane, we would have to put greater blame on carbon dioxide. If it were agreed that agricultural CH4 causes only 10% of NZ-sourced warming then we must say that CO2 is now responsible for 80%.
2. The same problem occurs globally “Not reducing methane levels at the same rate as in the scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 and 2°C would mean global net CO2 emissions have to reduce even faster and reach net zero even faster than in those scenarios”.
It is not politically possible for the world to reduce CO2 any faster. So, if we drop deep cuts in methane from our models, it would immediately become obvious that the 1.5°C target is already out of reach.
3. We have already adopted a statutory split-gas target in New Zealand. That phase is over, so we don’t need metrics for methane any more.
4. “Other likeminded countries also agree on GWP100 and there is no appetite to reopen the discussion”. If we insist, there could be reputational risk.
Just let that sink in.
The Ministry no longer believes that deep cuts in methane will actually change future global temperatures very much at all – in the real world. That whole theory has been blown out of the water..
BUT the Ministry needs those highly-inflated methane figures in order to make their modelled scenarios work. If the methane science is wrong, then all their CO2 models and targets and budgets and net-zero calculations are all going to be wrong as well.
If the hard yards previously allocated to farm methane are now re-allocated to carbon budgets for motorists and businesses, that is not going to be politically popular.
What to do? It is now evident that the global bureaucrats have hit upon a common strategy. It amounts to this –
We could all agree to shut our eyes tight and put our fingers in our ears … and then we can hang on to our important scenarios, at least in the short term. It could be years before people find out the truth.
So this is a conspiracy theory. Well… not just a theory actually, but a true conspiracy. A cover-up. An unprincipled deception. A giant lie.
The Ministry are claiming to produce positive future environmental impacts which will never exist in reality. That is the very definition of greenwashing.
Reputational risk?
Before COP26 in Glasgow, Minister Shaw reported to HWEN that he would check the extent of “international reputational damage” that was being generated by the split-gas approach adopted in our Zero Carbon Act of 2020. He noted that EU campaigners took every opportunity to harp on about New Zealand farmers ‘getting a free ride'.
The Minister has since reported back that he is very worried about the reputational risk of correcting our methane metrics to conform with IPCC science. No surprise.
So, we could earn a bad reputation for telling the truth …. or for upholding climate science? No. Shaw is talking about fact-free spin that we are trying to cheat. He is concerned that propagandists will tell lies about us and they might be believed.
Methinks Minister Shaw protests too much. He knows that farm methane is such a trivial portion of the EU’s warming potential that they could slash it 75% without destroying their modelled scenarios.
The Ministry is right that e-calibrating climate models will be troublesome. Casting even more doubt on the feasibility of the 1.5°C target may dampen enthusiasm. The credibility of the modellers will take a hit. Giving a political win to the hated farm sector will upset Greenpeace and most other environmental campaigners.
However, they seem to forget that their whole reason for existing is to promote and execute policies that are genuinely expected to reduce the threat of future global warming. New Zealand taxpayers invest billions of scarce dollars in policies that are meant to work.
Our most distinguished climate diplomat, Adrian Macey, writing jointly with our top climate scientist, David Frame, put it clearly:
“It is hard to understand why there is reluctance here to listen to sound science which enables accurate measurement of emissions, especially when the less accurate alternative severely penalises the New Zealand economy.
I would have thought the duty of both politicians and government officials would be to obtain the best and fairest deal for the country and its wealth-producing farming sector; not to buy in to ill-informed pressure from local and international lobby groups.”
A Ministry that greenwashes its publications and gaslights the voting public is unconscionable. It deserves to have no future at all.
Barry Brill OBE JP LL.M(Hons) M.ComLaw is a former MP and Minister of Energy, Petrocorp director, and chair of the Gas Council, Power NZ, ESANZ, and EMCO. He is presently the Chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition. This article was first published HERE
7 comments:
However, Barry, we know from experience that the woke climate crisis doomsayers will cling onto the false narrative and just ignore the evidence to the contrary.
Why aren't National all over this? It gives a cast-iron reason to revisit the whole farm emissions scenario (scam) because the new scientific evidence allows any earlier acquiescence to be rescinded without too much criticism of flip-flopping. There is so much political ammunition to be had here. Unless of course the Luxon/Willis etc band are totally in tune with Looney Shaw and Co?
This should be top of the headline news and properly reported as it directly affects our economy and cost of living.
Those briefing notes are the biggest load of crap ever. Whoever wrote them needs sacking.
Thanks Barry, for bringing us this information about methane, and the real and actual damage that overestimating it’s side effects poses to our economy and highly profitable agricultural centre.
Farming has been the backbone and engine of this economy for well over 100 years.
This information needs to be put in the public square, on all our newspapers, on our talk TV shows and especially into the mouths of our politicians.
It is true, some politicians find the truth I’m palatable. Perhaps the Blind Eye, BS and lies work for them.
But I would argue, not for long!
Agnes Repplier (1855-1950), the great American Essayist told us long ago…
“There are a few nudities, so objectionable, as the naked truth.”
And, how right she was!
Interestingly, those who follow the news, and who pay attention, will be aware that something similar has occurred in the Netherlands. The European Union is doing its best to severely limit Dutch farming. In response the Dutch Farmers Party was created only four years ago to respond to this absurd nitrogen crisis. According to POLOTICO’s Poll of Polls, the Dutch Farmers Party now has 16% of the National vote.
This has implications for New Zealand. Should a New Zealand farmers party form, and also likely receive 16% of the National vote, under our voting system, it would control the balance of power in New Zealand politics.
This should be a sobering to all NZ politicians and political activists. We have proportional representation in this country. — We voted for it!
Ignore the Truth now, & not alone will the economy and the farmers lose out, but many of our politicians will, with the passage of time, also go Dutch & lose their seats.
I think it’s time we all came to our senses.
Wake-Up! & Wise-Up!
Thank you Barry for your excellent articles and for shining the light of transparency on this incredibly important National issue.
Ivor Galvin.
Another great piece Barry. Never let a lie get in the way of a good story. The seedy ministry of education would then be bound to replace the climate change syllabus with numeracy and literacy subjects. How droll when you can brainwash the vulnerable with the Green Party’s ideology. Stuffs dedicated Climate Alarmists may be forced to publicly apologise after years of dedication to their fanatical “Forever Project” I held my breath when MP Maureen Pugh stated that she understood climate change but was yet to be convinced that man influenced it. It was the classical Hans Christian Andersen moment. Luxon was ambushed by a wild eyed 18 year old Press reporter, microphone in hand and recent climate change graduate demanding he denounce Pugh’s freedom to question her religion.
When will logic prevail where we can have a grown up discussion?
I was thinking about your comment alang about why the mats aren’t all over this. There is not only the “egg on your face” scenario as all parties as as guilty as each other but also if farming isn’t causing climate change then the big pharma /ag companies stand to lose billions from the other farce of GE.
I love the truth but greenies Greta and Stuff have been brainwashed for years. Their ridiculous stance must be exposed in clear and simple terms. Yes it beggars belief that National are still in the gulag! Further it is a fact that Labours policies will have a climate effect no better than me dropping a bucket of water into the sea.!!Wake up NZ and smell the stinking lies.
Don't let the truth get in the way ( in this case votes from the young brainwashed greenies)
In 10, 20 or 50 years when nothing much has changed climate wise, maybe humans will finally admit that this man made climate change bs has been the biggest hoax ever perpetrated upon mankind.
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