Ian Bradford: Explanation - Methane and Carbon Dioxide Can’t Cause Anything

The IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, formed by the United Nations, initially declared that humans were putting Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere and that was causing global warming. Then that was changed to climate change because of the embarrassment of at least 15 years of no temperature change from 1998, and then a cooling in recent years.

Graph goes from 2006 to 2015. Slight cooling began in 1998 and since 2016 the cooling has increased, as reflected in the record low temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Then all sorts of weather events were put down to more CO₂ and finally methane CH₄ also became a problem. Cows were in the firing line and it was pushed that we should give up eating meat and do away with cows.  

The brief of the IPCC from the UN was to look at only Carbon Dioxide emissions put out by humans into the atmosphere, (anthropogenic emissions), and Methane emissions from ruminants (animals with four stomachs). Only about 4% of all Carbon Dioxide emissions come from humans and about 14% of Methane emissions come from ruminants. The rest comes from natural sources.  Here is an IPCC diagram of Carbon Dioxide emissions. 

There are no units given but they are not needed. Adding together the three figures we get 29+439+332 =  800. Humans are emitting 29 units, Vegetation and land 439 units and the oceans 332 units.  So percentage human emission is (29/800) x  100  = 3.6%.  Call this 4%.

So humans are emitting just 4% of the total Carbon Dioxide emissions.  

What are “greenhouse” gases?  

Greenhouse gases are those which absorb radiation from the earth, essentially in the infra-red range. Most of the argument revolves around the “greenhouse effect.” The basic principle is that short wavelength radiation from the sun, which includes Ultra Violet A, Visible Light, and Infra Red, passes through the atmosphere and reaches the earth causing it to warm. Now the IPCC states that the earth at about 15 deg C, gives off longer wavelength Infra-Red radiation (heat), and this heat is absorbed by the CO₂ and CH₄ in the atmosphere and then they re-radiate it to warm the earth. As more CO₂ and CH₄ enters the atmosphere this warming increases - supposedly.   

   

 

Diagrams:  Climate Science Investigations, NASA 

The distance between two crests (or troughs) of  a wave is the wavelength (see diagram on the right). The wavelength can be expressed in metres but is often expresed in micrometres if looking at the visible range. Micrometres are written µm and a micrometre is a millionth of  a metre.   

The diagram on the left shows an electromagnetic wave. An electromagnetic wave consists of two waves at right angles to each other. One is an electric field and the other is a magnetic field. The vibrations of these fields are at right angles to the direction of travel. Light and all other components of the spectrum travel as electromagnetic waves. 

A word about actual greenhouses:  The same radiation from the sun strikes a greenhouse. The glass allows visible light and a small amount of shorter wavelength Infra Red to pass though.  All objects within the greenhouse are heated. Like the earth, these heated objects give off Infra Red Radiation, but this is of longer wavelength than that which entered. The glass will not pass this out. Consequently, the greenhouse builds up heat. However, if windows are opened, especially in the roof, much of this confined heat escapes into the atmosphere – by convection, (hot air rises).   

There is no comparison between a greenhouse and the earth/atmosphere system. In a greenhouse the hot air is confined. No such confinement takes place in the atmosphere. In this respect the term “greenhouse gas” is a misnomer. 

The atmosphere is divided into horizontal  layers. 

LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE

Three scientists G.V. Chilingar, L.F. Khiliyuk, and O.G. Sorokhtin, investigated the effect of CO₂ emissions on the temperature of the atmosphere.  The proponents of the so called “greenhouse effect” take into account only radiation from the earth’s surface. (That’s heat travelling by electromagnetic waves). The three scientists found that in the dense troposphere the heat is mainly transferred by convection. Convection is an actual movement of the particles and is common with gases. 

If you sit in front of a heater you feel heat, and that heat travels to you by the process of radiation. If you put your hand over the top of the heater you also feel heat. Some heat reaches you by radiation and some by convection. That is, warmed particles of air are rising up from the heater (Hot air rises).  

The three scientists found that convection accounted for about 67%, water vapour condensation in the upper troposphere accounted for about 25%, and radiation accounted for only about 8% of the heat transfer from the earth’s surface to the troposphere. The gases near the surface of the earth warm up from the earth, and expand making them less dense. They rise up through the troposphere. Methane CH₄ is carried along with all the other gases.  I need to point out at this stage that Methane is only about 1700 parts per billion (ppb) in the atmosphere.  That means it makes up only 0.00017% of all the gases in the atmosphere.  That’s a very tiny amount, but it is known that it is a better absorber of radiation than CO₂ for example. It has been continuously published that Methane is about 28 times more effective as a “greenhouse gas than Carbon Dioxide. As Barry Brill notes in a recent article, Allen et al (2018) agreed with Dr Flood’s earlier work that Methane only was about 7 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared with Carbon Dioxide. 

Since we are looking only at Methane emitted from ruminants we need to make a correction for this. It is estimated about 14% of all Methane emissions come from ruminants. So 14% of 0.00017 gives 0.00002 approx. 

That means there are just 2 Methane molecules in every ten million other molecules. 

The IPCC is only concerned with radiation(heat), emitted from the Earth. ( not covection).

So what about the 8% of heat transferred by radiation? This is a very small amount to start with. This radiation has to find one methane molecule among 5 million other molecules. So there is a good chance the radiation will be absorbed by something else.  Laboratory experiments consist of putting successive gases in a tube, shining radiation of various wavelengths through the tube and collecting the radiation with a spectrometer. 

Below is a simple sketch of the layout.

Methane is enclosed in a tube. A radiation source of several wavelengths is passed through the tube with the gas. The spectrometer picks up the radiation after it passes through the tube. 

  

Here is the result for Methane.

It is found that “greenhouse” gases do not absorb all the radiation falling on them.  They only absorb radiation of certain wavelengths. In the case of Methane it only absorbs radiation in two narrow bands centred on 3.5 microns and 8 microns. This means that those two wavelengths are not detected by the spectrometer. There are dark lines in the spectrometer in these places, because the Methane has absorbed the radiation in those two wavelengths. A micron is a wavelength of a millionth of a metre. The graph below gives the absorption spectra of greenhouse gases.  In other words, the graph gives the wavelengths of the Infra Red radiation (heat), from the Earth, that the molecules of that gas will absorb. I have drawn vertical lines though the peaks of Methane. The two absorption wavelength bands for Methane are the red blips. 

Source: Modified from Wikipedia Commons.  Fig prepared by Robert a. Rohde.  (5)

µm is micrometres or microns

Note that the vertical lines pass through at least part of the absorption spectrum of water. Water vapour by the way means just water molecules. (a gas)  

Now water vapour averages about 2% in the atmosphere. It is also a greenhouse gas- the main greenhouse gas, as it absorbs Infra Red radiation in those little blue shaded mountains. The absorption wavelengths of Methane happen to coincide with those of water vapour.

If there is an average amount of water vapour In the atmosphere, then there are 100,000 times more water molecules than a single molecule of Methane. So starting with a small amount of radiation to begin with, it is highly likely that all this radiation will be absorbed by water vapour (since there is so much of it), before it actually reaches a Methane molecule. It seems clear then, that Methane plays virtually no part in the warming of the earth.  Even if we took ALL the Methane emitted from the earth it still would not warm the earth or do anything. 

 The same argument could be applied to Carbon Dioxide. You can see that the yellow absorption bands of Carbon Dioxide also coincide with those of water vapour. So considering the very small number of Carbon Dioxide molecules compared with water vapour ones, water will absorb any radiation long before it gets to find a Carbon Dioxide molecule.

SUMMARY:

The three scientists Chilinger, Khilyuk and Sorokhtin, found that 67% of the heat leaving the surface of the earth did so by convection. The warmed air near the surface at 15 deg C rises as it is less dense. It continues to rise till it eventually cools then falls back to Earth again. The three scientists consider this to be an adiabatic process. That means no heat is lost or gained in this rise and fall of the air. So when the air falls back to the earth it does not warm the earth. The IPCC has only been concerned about the heat leaving the Earth by the process of radiation. This is only 8%. Methane does not absorb all the radiation falling on it but only a small amount in two particular wavelengths. It so happens that these wavelengths coincide with the ones in which water vapour absorbs radiation (radiation meaning heat). For every one Methane molecule in the air there are 100,000 water vapour molecules. So the chances of heat radiation striking a Methane molecule before it strikes a water vapour molecule is remote. So virtually all the heat radiation leaving the Earth will be absorbed by water vapour-not Methane. The same argument applies to Carbon Dioxide, and indeed Nitrous oxide.   

Water vapour, the largest “greenhouse” gas by far is never mentioned by the climate alarmists. 

Reducing Methane by avoiding meat and cutting down on cow numbers will make no difference to climate. A considerable reduction in meat consumption will however, increase the chance of malnutrition and nutrient deficiencies, which is something never mentioned by the anti-meat, climate alarmist disciples. 

The tiny increases in Methane associated with cows cannot be the basis for sane regulations or national policy.

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.