Point of Order: Latest Morgan poll might shock politicians on the Left

But can those on the Right exploit the trend?

Labour politicians might have risked heart attacks as they read the latest Roy Morgan poll.

According to the poll data, the party vote for Labour has fallen to 26%, down 4.5% from the June sampling . That would mean it holds only 33 seats in the next Parliament, 32 fewer than it won in 2020.

The Roy Morgan poll showed the gap between the parties of the Right and Left widening.

National was 3.5% up at 33.5%, and ACT was on 14%, down 1%. Together they would hold 61 seats in the next Parliament while Labour and the Greens would have would have only 45. Even with Te Pati Maori, which might have eight seats (up from six) the Left might have only 53 seats.

The intriguing issue thrown up by the Roy Morgan poll is that NZ First might, like a ghost from the past, emerge from the political shadows. According to the sampling, it is on 5%, up two points, entitling it to six seats.

The TOP party, up one point to 4%, is barking at the door, and could gain entry if it wins a seat.

Some political pundits are not surprised by the trends evident in the Morgan sampling. Labour has almost been trashing itself, with prominent ministers being sacked and another, mentally unwell, leaving Parliament abruptly.

The Prime Minister who has almost single-handedly been manning the ramparts to keep the enemy at bay has had to quell a (muted) rebellion from his two senior finance ministers on tax policy.

Testing opinion on when the country is moving in the right or wrong direction the Roy Morgan pollsters found 29% saying “right” (down 9%) and 60.5% “wrong” (up 6% ).

On this poll Labour is forecast to lose half of their current seats – from 65 to 33. This would represent the largest loss ever under MMP.

David Farrar on Kiwiblog has noted the net country direction is at the lowest level in the history of the Roy Morgan poll (since 2007).

On this factor alone it might be thought the National support would be soaring, but so far the current leadership has not found the right wavelength. That leaves it to the ACT Party’s David Seymour to sharpen the attack or, perhaps the old master himself, Winston Peters.

Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton.