Harbingers of doom for the US Air Force protecting Taiwan from a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) attack are gaining purchase. Piles of budget data and capabilities analysis all come to similar conclusions. The US Air Force has been underfunded in acquiring attack and fighter aircraft for years, and its capability to fight and overcome near-peer adversaries like China is not only questionable but doubtful. Solutions to the problem are few, expensive, and will take time to deliver.
China is growing as a threat in air combat capability. China’s growing prowess in air assets is particularly troubling when the defense of Taiwan is the issue. Distance and geography do not favor the US and its Allies in a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. US defense analysts have been sounding the alarm for several years, but substantial change in acquiring greater air power capability has not been forthcoming.
China Catching US Air Force in Number of Fighters
In its January 2024 release of its comparative worldwide military capability, Global Firepower provided a side-by-side comparison of US and China airpower. The Global Firepower analysis combines all US military aviation in terms of numbers. Looking at the total aircraft number of 13,209 for the US versus 3,304 Chinese military aircraft, the overwhelming advantage would go to the US. But that number is deceiving. Over 70% of those military aircraft are helicopters and trainers. Comparing fighter aircraft, the capability of the US and China is closer to parity. The US possesses 1,854 compared with China’s 1,207.
The most recent US Department of Defense publication China Assessment, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2023, described China’s expanding fighter capability, explaining:
“In 2021, General Chag Dingqiu assumed the post of PLAAF [People’s Liberation Army Air Force] and continued to enact PLAAF reforms to improve the force’s ability to accomplish joint warfighting tasks. The PLAAF is rapidly catching up to Western air forces. This trend is gradually eroding longstanding and significant US military technical advantages vis-à-vis the PRC [People’s Republic of China] in the air domain.”
A comprehensive analysis of the US Air Force’s capability to engage in a major conflict with China released in September 2022 by the Mitchell Institute came to a disturbing conclusion: “The Air Force now lacks a force structure that has the lethality, survivability, and capacity to fight a major conflict with China, deter nuclear threats, and meet its other operational requirements necessary to achieve the National Defense Strategy.” The study authors make the case that the Air Force’s essential capability to deter or defeat a foe, specifically China, suffers from underfunded defense budgets using the National Defense Strategy as the basis for the assessment. However, according to a congressional commission’s recent report, that baseline suffers from an element of unreality.
The Defense Department budget documents show the Air Force budget request for FY2025 as $263 billion, more than the US Army’s $186 billion and the US Navy’s (including the US Marine Corps budget) $258 billion. It appears the US Air Force got the lion’s share of the funding. However, the Air Force budget line portrayed in the President’s Budget Request for Defense includes what is called “pass-through funding” of $75 billion for non-Air Force budget items like the US Space Force and classified satellite programs that bring the actual funding for Air Force programs to $188 billion. That puts the Air Force’s actual budget below that of the Navy at $204 billion (taking out $54 billion for the US Marine Corps.) and more than the US Army at $166 billion.
Budget Process Put’s Fighter Programs at a Disadvantage
The Mitchell Institute analysis maintains the US Air Force cannot “use this pass-through funding to buy new aircraft, increase its readiness, and otherwise organize, train, and equip its forces.” However, when the total US Air Force budget is argued before Congress, it is with the pass-through funding included. As the study explained, for context, using the Mitchell Institute’s logic, if the pass-through funding were available as one might believe just looking at the total US Air Force budget for FY2025, the US Air Force could procure 750 5th generation F-35A Lightning II stealth fighters “designed to fight in high-threat operational environments that would exist during a conflict with China or Russia.”
In a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) August 2024 discussion of a solution to the current US Air Force fighter capability shortfall, CSIS researchers concluded, “The Air Force needs more aircraft, but it also needs those aircraft to be cheaper to buy, fly, and repair.” To fix this problem, the Defense Department has significantly increased the multi-year funding for an unmanned fighter aircraft program referred to as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). “The Air Force aims to field thousands of more affordable, AI [Artificial Intelligence]-enabled and autonomous, and uncrewed CCA aircraft that it hopes will operate (and under the control of) pilots flying in fifth- and sixth-generation crewed fighters,” the CSIS authors explained. The Air Force envisions the CCA taking on missions like electronic warfare, dogfighting, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Though the CCA program appears visionary, focusing on innovative AI technology and mission systems integration, there are perennial issues. The over 100 CCAs on order won’t be delivered until September 2029. That’s six years before any substantive delivery of autonomous aircraft. But we’ve seen that no defense program is on schedule. So, six years is very optimistic. Furthermore, the notion of “cheaper to buy” has historically been aspirational, not real.
The dilemma for the Air Force is to produce a fighter aircraft program with existing technology requiring little development that can be scaled for more rapid manufacturing. Integrating AI-based autonomy into the air combat domain is in its infancy at best. Additionally, lest anyone forget, the Air Force’s fighter program is just one of many, like the new B-21 bomber, the KC-46 aerial tanker, and others that impact the Air Force’s annual budget. Whatever the solution for the fighter deficit is, it will certainly cost money.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE
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