The Herald & Radio NZ owe the nation an apology. Their reporting has hit new lows. No wonder people don't trust the Main Stream Media. Yesterday they reported on their front pages, "Labour closing in on National in latest Ipsos issues poll, with 65% support for capital gains tax". At best its a misleading headline; at worst its a blatant untruth.
Then they go on to say, in a bit more detail, that the Ipsos Poll "found almost two-thirds of NZ'ers support a capital gains tax in some form". But Ipsos never asked its 1,000 survey respondents the question, "Do you support a capital gains tax in some form?" And wording in surveys is everything. Every word matters, since it can bias respondents. In fact, Ipsos asked, "Would you support the introduction of a Capital Gains Tax in the following situations?
(1) Sale of an investment property?
(2) Sale of a business?
(3) Sales of other assets like boats, cars & paintings?
(4) Sale of a family home".
The proportions supporting were 57%, 43%, 22% and 13%, respectively. There's only (narrow) majority support for one asset class - investment properties - and NZ already has capital taxes on them (ones that come under the bright-line test). Faced with this failure to show much public support for capital taxes, what Ipsos (sneakily) did & the Herald (sneakily) reported does not even come from the answer to a survey question. Instead it came from a calculation that was made up & contrived - they added up the number of people who ticked any one (or more) of the above 4 categories. That's how they arrived at their "65% support capital gains in one of these forms" number.
To see how misleading is the Herald's story (journos also confronted the PM with the "65% support number") then answer the following question: do you think that only 35% of Kiwis oppose Capital Gains Taxes (being 100% - 65%)? If you think the answer is "yes", its wrong. The answers to the question, "Would you not support the introduction of a Capital Gains Tax in the following situations?
To see how misleading is the Herald's story (journos also confronted the PM with the "65% support number") then answer the following question: do you think that only 35% of Kiwis oppose Capital Gains Taxes (being 100% - 65%)? If you think the answer is "yes", its wrong. The answers to the question, "Would you not support the introduction of a Capital Gains Tax in the following situations?
(1) Sale of an investment property;(2) Sale of a business;(3) Sales of other assets like boats, cars & paintings;(4) Sale of a family home",
are 32%, 41%, 64% and 78%, respectively, of respondents. So clear majorities in 2 out of 4 categories show no support. Although Big Media did not report it, I estimate about 90% of Kiwis object to Capital Gains Taxes on at least one of these asset classes (often several). Whereas the Herald reported that Ipsos "found almost two-thirds of New Zealanders support a capital gains tax in some form", the headline could equally have been Ipsos "found almost 90% of New Zealanders oppose a capital gains tax in some form". Big Media's Plot to get capital taxes put in and Labour re-elected on that platform makes me suspect its in cahoots with Labour at some horribly unpleasant & deeply disturbing level, one that needs investigation.
Sources:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-closing-in-on-national-in-latest-poll-with-65-support-for-capital-gains-tax/QSD7A426WFDEFHIHVCVBDQ5C44/
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018961806/survey-of-1000-people-shows-65-would-support-capital-gains-tax
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-10/26th%20Ipsos%20New%20Zealand%20Issues%20Monitor%20October%202024.pdf
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.
8 comments:
You mean the state corporate media lies?? Surely not!!
I saw this somewhere else today about this article and thought it worth the share......:
“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.”
― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
The first question should be "do you understand what is meant by a capital gains tax?" Second question "Do you support any cgt under which you would be taxed personally?" Of the few remaining can then get down to details. Unless the family home included very unfair. Would require some means of postponing so moves (as for work) not hampered, or capital diverted to non useful purpose. If Labour had introduced near end of term, property owning NZers would have accumulated colossal tax credits to date. With the democratic system the response to all questions, provided asked so fully understood, are entirely predictable by selfish consideration. Hence always a majority clamour to tax the rich.
But it's worse than lies. It’s manipulation. They are essentially grooming the nation, messing with our minds. They are truly despicable.
Yes, Marxist BS through and through, Anna Mouse.
Lies and propaganda and seems like we will get the same painful debate in the media we got pre election last year with all the socialist darlings extolling the virtues of CGT. Robin Malcolm, Sir Ian Taylor....etcetera...
Robert spells out a corrupt media assault on our democracy, probably motivated by the promise of a new Labour Party PIJF.
Perhaps Robert could pen an article on actions the current government can take to prevent the next Labour government courting media favour with our hard earned taxes.
"In cahoots with Labour at some horribly unpleasant & deeply disturbing level"
Mark Hanley
Could be a simple question of innumeracy. I'd predict at least half of all university students are innumerate. Of course, the public may benefit if lawyers cannot figure out how to bill us per six minutes....
I read the same article and knew it was complete crap immediately. But thanks for confirming.
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