Dr Clare Craig: Asymptomatic Spread is Still a Myth

In 2020 and 2021 anyone claiming Covid was like influenza was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist. In 2024, the NHS is trying to treat influenza with all the crazy superstitions used for Covid. The concept of asymptomatic influenza and the blind faith in masks would, in any other time, have been laughed at. Yet, here we are, drowning in these myths, perpetuated by authorities and swallowed whole by the public. These ideas were crazy for Covid and they are crazy for influenza.

The Farce of Asymptomatic Influenza

Let’s begin with this absurd notion that influenza can spread from people who are not showing any symptoms. The idea of asymptomatic transmission is not new — it was introduced back in 1910 by Dr. Charles Chapin, the Health Officer of Providence, Rhode Island, and a prominent figure in early public health. Chapin was eager to stamp out the idea of airborne transmission and to pin the transmission of all infectious disease on close person to person spread. Influenza was his big sticking point. Instead of admitting that the evidence pointed towards airborne transmission, Chapin invented the myth of asymptomatic spread as a way to explain rapid outbreaks of influenza. He wrote:

The rapidity with which epidemic influenza spreads, its sudden contemporaneous appearance at many distant points, and the difficulty of tracing the route of infection, render it almost certain that there must in this disease be many mild atypical cases, and many persons infected but showing no symptoms.

He had no evidence. He retained an element of caution, however, admitting

We must be on our guard lest our generalisation carry us too far. It may be a fact that most diseases are not airborne, and yet further investigation may show that certain other diseases concerning which we are still in doubt may be usually transmitted in this way.

PCR testing bolstered the idea of asymptomatic disease but the incredibly sensitive nature of this testing means that single aerosols containing a handful of virus particles are enough to trigger a positive test. Anyone breathing contaminated air could be accused of being ‘asymptomatic’. Even when a virus particle enters a cell, if the person has an effective immune response he or she will not ever reach a viral load that would cause infection in others, yet he or she would be described as ‘asymptomatic’. These are healthy people not spreaders of disease. The sick, with many cells replicating the virus, are the source of virus in the air. However, the rapid trajectory of every wave and the fact that the percentage of susceptible household contacts matches the percentage who acquire antibodies at the end of a wave is evidence that everyone is exposed and only those susceptible to that wave are infected. Blaming infected individuals for spread in a scenario where everyone is exposed in a matter of weeks is illogical and dangerous. Protection from respiratory infections comes from our immune systems, not from removing the sick.

The Masking Illusion

This winter has seen a resurgence in NHS hospitals demanding patients and visitors wear masks. The idea that wearing masks will protect us from respiratory viruses is yet another concept that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Our respiratory systems have evolved with a robust defence mechanism — our mucus — that does far more to protect us than any mask could. If the world were not so gripped by fear, the suggestion that healthy individuals should wear masks to ‘protect’ the robust, thick, mucus layers in their lungs would be comical.

The evidence for masks preventing viral transmission is weak at best. Surgical and cloth masks do not stop the fine aerosol particles that are primarily responsible for spreading respiratory infections. The aerosols of the same size as those that contain virus particles can be seen as they turn white when we exhale into cold air. These aerosols pass straight through cloth and surgical masks, rendering such ‘barriers’ pointless. Medical grade masks can filter these aerosols but they cannot provide protection from eventual exposure unless worn constantly, without gaps or touching and while wearing goggles.

Now, if transmission really were happening through droplets — larger particles that fall to the ground relatively quickly — then yes, masks would be somewhat effective. It was Dr. Charles Chapin again who, in 1910, described these larger particles as “mouth spray”, noting that they “contain the most bacteria and which settle out of the air in the space of a few feet from the mouth”. He believed that these droplets only travelled within a three-foot radius, despite admitting that “droplets from speaking” could “float for five to six hours” and travel “55 metres along a corridor, and up two flights of stairs”. He was quick, however, to dismiss this, saying: “It should not be assumed that because bacteria are observed to fall on agar plates from the air of a room, the air is infectious.”

There is an established body of literature that details that masking does nothing to reduce influenza infections. It was dismissed in 2020 and 2021 on the basis that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was somehow mechanically different. Now, it is just being ignored in place of superstition.

 
The Masking of Common Sense

It’s difficult to ignore the absurdity of it all. In a world where reason had not been hijacked by fear, the idea that we should wear masks to prevent illness in healthy individuals would be nothing more than a bad joke. But people bought into the narrative and it is proving very hard to make people unbelieve the lies they have been told. It seems that the authority of anything pronounced by the NHS carries far more weight than the truth.

Dr. Chapin’s myth of asymptomatic spread was an error that should have been corrected long ago. Instead, it has lingered, morphing into a widespread belief that healthy individuals pose a threat. Imagine if we had dedicated the last four and a half years to studying why around one in 10 have a failure of the mucus protection of our respiratory tract each winter. Imagine if we had accepted that, like all airborne respiratory viruses, none of our attempts at control would work and instead of the intense focus on this one problem we had ignored it and continued living in freedom. Imagine if the huge resources spent on Covid policy were instead directed towards improving the world. Imagine if the catastrophic policies introduced in a panicked state of fear had never happened and lives had not been lost as a result of them. Yet, here we are, still clinging to these outdated and scientifically unsupported beliefs.

Dr. Clare Craig is a diagnostic pathologist and Co-Chair of the HART group. She is the author of Expired – Covid the untold story. This article was first published HERE