As 2025 begins, I thought I would start the Substack year with some reflections on the year ahead in light of a question that kept being put to me over the summer – will this be a one term government?
The short answer to this is ‘possibly’. I stress the word ‘possibly’ as opposed to ‘probably’. If I were a betting man, I would still put money on this centre-right bloc holding the treasury benches come 2026, but it is in no way a sure bet. It pains me to say this, for contemplating a Labour-Greens-Maori Party combo returning to power is horrifying to say the least after the economic, moral, and social harm they have caused in years past.
Click to view
However, the current coalition is clearly not resonating sufficiently with the public. One only needs to look at current polling to see this, be it Party or leadership preference. The latest Curia poll showing the National Party at 29% is terrible and yet it does reflect the discontent on the ground. There is no need for panic, but there is much room for improvement. What is needed is real action and substantial policy change, not repetitious phrases and tiresome Tiktok videos.
The recent ministerial portfolio shuffle illustrates this. New titled roles like ‘Minister for Economic Growth’ make for great branding but don’t actually cause economic growth. The same levers that could make ‘the boat go faster’ today, were there yesterday and the years before. They just need to be pulled. Among them, the government has to rein in it’s spending. It remains of deep concern that this current administration is spending more – yes, more! – than the previous Labour government and digging us into deeper debt.
The year ahead is going to be tough and that is even before we contemplate the possibility of American tariffs. Inflation may have come down and now stubbornly plateaued, but people are not feeling this in their back pockets. Reminding people of the early-2024 tax cuts has its place, but seeing it was so small it is not something people remember nor overly value. This year’s Budget must see major change and bold decisions, not tinkering around the edges or dubiously motivated suggestions of taxing charities more.
Staying on the reshuffle, the leak of it does point to some internal discontent. And there is discontent. MPs need to be pondering what is good for the country, not what is good for them if things change. Worryingly, we observe an increasing number of substantial portfolios going to fewer and fewer people. I know there are many MPs with good skills, depth, and real experience on the government side of the House; that they are not being given an opportunity is unfortunate and arguably contributing to the lethargy we are seeing.
The removal of the health portfolio from Shane Reti was a given, as too it going to Simeon Brown as almost the only Minister clearly delivering and being unapologetic for his views. This is no comment on Dr Reti’s abilities, but it was clear things were not working in this specific space or being managed politically.
While congratulations are due to James Meager MP for entering the Executive, the role of ‘Minister of the South Island’ is again just marketing and branding (in the same way the ‘Minister for Auckland’ is). Ministers without an actual ministry and budget are effectively powerless and no more effective advocates than the MPs in the area. Put bluntly, if you need a Minister then what are the MPs doing – and why not have a Minister for Hamilton, Kerikeri, or the Chatham Islands for that matter?
The government also needs to observe the changes developing around the world and the clear shift to the right. A big part of this change is the population rejecting the cultural politics of the left, but also appreciating leaders with a clear, definitive vision. The government’s prevaricating on everything from gender ideology to the place of the Treaty is problematic and confusing to the voter. People want clarity and are responding to leaders and Party’s that demonstrate a strong commitment to free speech, common sense, the rule of law, equality, sex based rights (as opposed to made up rights), and more.
That Labour is lost and listless, the Maori Party being Marxist revolutionaries and out-radicalising the Greens, is also helping the current government. Their vote may have grown in the recent polls, but voters overall are not seeing them as the alternative and for now, this a good thing. If this changes - particularly if Labour finds its stride earlier than anticipated - then there is more trouble ahead for National.
Among the many headwinds facing the government this year and on it’s way back to the Treasury benches in 2026 is the new global reality of President Trump back in the White House.
I wrote months ago, and before legacy media commentators caught up, that the Trump administration will demand much more of New Zealand, particularly in our defence and intelligence space. Not only will the United States expect a more robust approach to Communist China but also a greater financial contribution to security in the Indo-Pacific. This is of course a big issue for New Zealand as we have no money and a propensity to cosy up to the CCP.
The government has, worryingly, cut defence spending and it is hard to see where it will find the amounts required. If it doesn’t, then I expect to see US tariffs deployed. In many ways, New Zealand is in a lose-lose position. We either must magic up hundreds of millions more for defence spending or pay tariffs on our export goods.
Speaking of defence. When is anyone going to be held to account for the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui? A sixth of our naval fleet lies at the bottom of the ocean for no good reason, and yet near silence and no accountability. We now have the ridiculous suggestion from government that the vessel’s sinking has not impacted capability. This is patently false considering the specific capabilities the Manawanui had, but even if true, one would then have to ask why on earth the vessel was bought in the first place! Incongruent statements such as this are being noted by our allies.
2025 is going to be a critical year for government, and in turn, New Zealand as a whole. I am very conscious many Ministers are working hard on changes. What will be key is that New Zealanders see the fruits of this work – real change to the education curriculum; better transport options; reduced emergency department waiting times; climate policy that doesn’t simply destroy our economy for the sake of global praise; a rejection of wokeness; standing clearly with our allies; and much more.
The way to re-election in 2026 is an unambiguous commitment to good centre-right policies based on time-tested values, and delivering real discernible change. As we are seeing overseas, voters will respond positively if the government in fact embraces such a commitment.
Simon O'Connor a former National MP graduated from the University of Auckland with a Bachelor of Arts in Geography and Political Studies . Simon blogs at On Point - where this article was sourced.
8 comments:
A courteous account. The PM seems hell bent on denying affirmation of our respected democracy by NZers. What could be more alarming than that?
This is No 1 priority after the destructive marxist-driven socio- economic nightmare of 2020-23. The rest - aspiration, commitment, energy - will follow.
A lengthy article on the chances of a second term for the coalition that does not mention Luxon and his (lack of) leadership is worthless in my view.
The Government have to content with the outright left wing political activism of NZ's media. Yesterday they were going after Simeon Brown for having Pro Life views and voting record which per the media makes him not suitable to be Minister of Health. He will come under heavy attack now he is doing that role.
This coalition needs to thank its lucky stars that Covid came along. It was simply Labour and Jacinda's mismanagement of Covid that saw this Coalition just sneak over the line. Another term and Labour could have been in office for a long long time. The Socialist Republic of Aotearoa . But that was then.
I've always thought that Labour were from the dunces at school, that hadn't really quite made it in life. They seek political office simply because the hate the thought of any one else running the place.
Whereas National are the the arrogant little pricks that all wanted to be school prefects, and seem to think they have a divine right to govern.
But neither of them have done particularly well , look at the mess the country's in now.
Despite the noise that armageddon would break loose if 3 water, the maori healthboards , or unelected maori wards were removed what happened ? Nothing ! Would the consequences of Luxon and Winnie supporting Seymours Bill be any different. I doubt it.
But if Luxon and Winnie don't support Mr Seymour's Treaty Principles Bill before the next election there could well be consequences all right, They might lose !
And then the Socialist Republic of Aotearoa will be in office .
For ever !
The alternative to the current govt, whatever its flaws, is a fast-paced and determined reintroduction of all the CRT and DEI and rainbow agendas combined with separate everything down the line and (radical ) '''Maori'' having final say. The ''Maori'' final say seems to be building into the system (as in Wanganui) regardless and entrenched opposition in education, local and central govt and elsewhere is just waiting for 2026. Hipkins told the party he believes Maori never ceded sovereignty. That is important but seems to have been played down in msm, or am i wrong? It seems forgotten. Do all Labour voters understand that and what it means and support him? Or is it a case of being loyal to the party no matter what because anything is better than those other so and sos. Both main parties have their loyal backbone (about 20pc of voters) who stay loyal no matter what.
" we have no money and a propensity to cosy up to the CCP".
Of course we have had to "cosy up" to China. We're simply earning a living in a hard world. If the US can't be bothered entering into a free-trade agreement with us, what choice do we have?
The least Trump has to do to maintain the status-quo is ignore us. We can handle that. After all, the US already tried ignoring us when they walked away from their treaty commitments under ANZUS, and we coped.
But if he imposes tariffs on our existing trade, for whatever reason, then that moves the goalposts. We will cope with the inevitable loss in trade. We have been there too, when the UK joined the then EEC and stabbed us in the back on trade deals. Nevertheless, It would be a hostile act by the US and would deserve a strong response on our part.
We have little to bargain with of course. Maybe we can threaten to close the 5-Eyes base in retaliation. Maybe we could invite China to build and run the new ferries under their Belt and Road initiative. Maybe we threaten to withdraw into neutrality. The Switzerland of the South Pacific. Whatever we do however needs to be as noisy and embarrassing for the US as possible, you know, just like the deal-maker in chief would expect.
This is not hypothetical stuff because these choices will be critical to our survival as a trading nation when the Taiwan War starts and we have to choose sides. While the 5-Eyes base at Waihopai is undoubtedly an immediate target when hostilities break out, China can destroy our economy without firing a shot by simply stopping buying our food. And that might not be easy to cope with.
These are the realities of the next four years that will need to be addressed by the incumbent Government during that period., and the sooner the better. The United States can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally or trading partner of New Zealand. Trump cannot be trusted and should never be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to determining our own self-interest. So as usual, we we need to hope for the best, but plan for the worst. I hope our pollys are up to the task.
I joined National briefly around the time of the 2020 election but the determination, at all levels of the party, to avoid discussion of any difficult issues was soul destroying. I guess I shouldn't reveal what happened at in-house policy meetings, but Nicola Willis's response to the Supreme Court decree that 16 year olds should get the vote was typical. She just carried on tweeting about interest rates.
The only hope for New Zealand is if NZ First and ACT replace Labour and National.
"The United States can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally or trading partner of New Zealand." This has never been so in my adult lifetime. Fair weather friends would be a better description.
Post a Comment