David Farrar: Is the Government’s loss of support unusual?

A reader inquired if the support lost by the major party of Government since the election is a record. I didn’t think so, but have now gone and checked the data. This compares the 1st 1 News poll of the middle year of a term against the last election result.

1.  2008: +9%

2.  1996: +8%

3.  1999: +8%
4.  2017: +8%
5.  1984: +6%
6.  1993: +3%
7.  2011: +2%
8.  1981: +1%
9.  2014: +0%
10. 1978: -1%
11. 1975: -2%
12.  2005: -2%
13.  2002: -3%
14.  2023: -4%
15.  1987: -9%
16.  2020: -10%
17.  1990: -22%

So the biggest gain at the beginning of the mid year was the 2008 – 2011 National Government which was up 9% and the biggest fall was the 1990 – 1993 National Government which was down a massive 22%.

More Governments were up than down in the start of the middle year of their term, but the 4% drop for the Government is far from the biggest fall.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.