Pezzullo gave a stark assessment of the security challenges facing Australia and New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific region. He made a compelling case for something we urgently need to consider: an integrated ANZAC military force.
The timing of our discussion could not have been more relevant. Just last month, a Chinese naval cruiser conducted exercises in the Tasman Sea, equipped with 112 missile cells capable of precision strikes against targets in both our countries.
This was not merely a routine exercise. Pezzullo described it as “both a strategic diplomatic purpose to project power and to seek to intimidate, but also a military rehearsal.”
“The defence of New Zealand actually starts at the outer edge of the Australian territorial sphere,” Pezzullo told me. His assessment was blunt: “If Australia goes down, if Australia is militarily defeated or has its sovereignty severely impacted by military coercion, then New Zealand is next.”
New Zealand’s current defence position is precarious. We spend just 1.2% of GDP on defence compared to Australia’s 2% and maintain minimal military capability. Rather than trying to match Australian capabilities independently – an economically unfeasible proposition – Pezzullo suggests reinstating our 1944 military alliance.
His proposal would create an integrated force specifically for territorial defence while maintaining sovereign decision-making for operations beyond our immediate region. “New Zealand wouldn’t necessarily have to acquire its own F-35 Lightnings, for instance, but it could contribute in other ways,” he explained.
A united ANZAC approach would strengthen our position in countering China’s growing influence in the Pacific, evidenced by recent security agreements with the Solomon Islands and Cook Islands.
Pezzullo estimates a 10-20% probability of conflict – far higher than most insurable risks people address in their private lives. With American security guarantees increasingly conditional, we cannot afford complacency.
What this means for New Zealand is clear: our geographic isolation no longer provides the security buffer it once did. Modern military technology, changing geopolitical dynamics, and strategic competition in our region demand a serious reassessment of our defence arrangements. The public conversation about these realities has been notably absent in New Zealand compared to Australia.
The ANZAC tradition began with our nations standing together. In today’s complex security environment, a renewed military partnership represents our most realistic path to maintaining sovereignty.
This was not merely a routine exercise. Pezzullo described it as “both a strategic diplomatic purpose to project power and to seek to intimidate, but also a military rehearsal.”
“The defence of New Zealand actually starts at the outer edge of the Australian territorial sphere,” Pezzullo told me. His assessment was blunt: “If Australia goes down, if Australia is militarily defeated or has its sovereignty severely impacted by military coercion, then New Zealand is next.”
New Zealand’s current defence position is precarious. We spend just 1.2% of GDP on defence compared to Australia’s 2% and maintain minimal military capability. Rather than trying to match Australian capabilities independently – an economically unfeasible proposition – Pezzullo suggests reinstating our 1944 military alliance.
His proposal would create an integrated force specifically for territorial defence while maintaining sovereign decision-making for operations beyond our immediate region. “New Zealand wouldn’t necessarily have to acquire its own F-35 Lightnings, for instance, but it could contribute in other ways,” he explained.
A united ANZAC approach would strengthen our position in countering China’s growing influence in the Pacific, evidenced by recent security agreements with the Solomon Islands and Cook Islands.
Pezzullo estimates a 10-20% probability of conflict – far higher than most insurable risks people address in their private lives. With American security guarantees increasingly conditional, we cannot afford complacency.
What this means for New Zealand is clear: our geographic isolation no longer provides the security buffer it once did. Modern military technology, changing geopolitical dynamics, and strategic competition in our region demand a serious reassessment of our defence arrangements. The public conversation about these realities has been notably absent in New Zealand compared to Australia.
The ANZAC tradition began with our nations standing together. In today’s complex security environment, a renewed military partnership represents our most realistic path to maintaining sovereignty.
Listen to Dr Oliver Hartwich and Michael Pezzullo's podcast episode here.
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was first published HERE
4 comments:
"A united ANZAC approach would strengthen our position in countering China’s growing influence in the Pacific"
Why is it imperative to counter China's growing influence in the Pacific?
Whenever you hear the phrase "countering X, Y and Z's influence in region W" this is really just another way of saying "ensuring the United States' continued dominance in region W."
So the question could be rephrased: why is it imperative to ensure the United States' continued influence in the Pacific?
Because I have no desire to pedal a rickshaw up Queen Street!
Why do you even bother to ask the question?
It’s hard to believe someone could be so naive.
To Madame Blavatsky.
Quite simple really, we speak English not Chinese.
You tell Australian’ s to roll out the red carpet for Mr Xi. You’ll get kicked out of Aussie, quick smart.
So let’s be clear we need to defend our patch, if we can’t we get walked over. Talk to Singaporean’s if you think being a benign force is good for you. The memory of Japanese rule is not forgotten.
Singapore wouldn’t win a war but You would be well advised not mess with them.
Similar situation applies to Aus/NZ.
As for Americans being our friends, it’s all transactional with them.
You want weapons where’s the cheque book? No money, we accept. Gold, Silver, oil, gas, minerals etc
Another reason for NZ to get off its arse and start mining its wealth before it’s taken.
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