But his treatment of Canada, America’s closest neighbour, defies rational explanation.
Trump’s assault on Canada exposes a grim geopolitical strategy in ways his murky Ukraine policy never could. No historical complexities blur the picture. No security issues cloud our judgment. Here stands America’s closest ally – sharing the world’s longest peaceful border, buying more US goods than anyone, fighting alongside American troops for generations – facing economic warfare from a supposed friend.
Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods took effect this month. But not before he threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent in response to threatened retaliation from Ontario. Trump also warned he would “permanently shut down” Canada’s car industry.
Trump’s apparent aim is to force Canada to become America’s “51st state.” He telegraphed this ambition by repeatedly referring to Prime Minister Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau.” Recent history suggests we should take his words seriously.
Trump’s aggression strains credulity. There are no legitimate grievances. No security threats.Just pressure against a peaceful neighbour. His justification is economic nationalism – using tariffs to force jobs back home. But this is economically misguided. It will harm both nations. Nor can it justify his territorial claims.
Wall Street recognised this immediately. Stocks suffered their worst two-day drop since August, only recovering slightly when Ontario backed down.
Mark Carney, selected as Liberal Party leader amid this crisis and poised to replace Trudeau as Prime Minister, faced an impossible choice: surrender sovereignty or watch methodical economic harm unfold. His pledge to fight “until Americans show us respect” contrasts sharply with Washington’s hostility.
All this sends a clear signal to America’s adversaries. Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran watch as the US threatens its closest ally. They know a United States without friends stands alone.
For New Zealand, the implications are sobering. The US’s protectionist tariffs of the 1930s deepened the Great Depression through global retaliation. Today’s trade wars risk similar damage.
Our economy relies heavily on agricultural exports, with nearly NZ$4 billion annually in meat and dairy products shipped to the US. Similar tariffs, combined with disruptions from a global trade war and a US recession, could slash GDP by 1–2% and devastate rural communities.
When even Canada faces economic threats, New Zealand must prepare for a world where rules matter less than might.
Roger Partridge is chairman and a co-founder of The New Zealand Initiative and is a senior member of its research team. He led law firm Bell Gully as executive chairman from 2007 to 2014. This article was first published HERE
Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods took effect this month. But not before he threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent in response to threatened retaliation from Ontario. Trump also warned he would “permanently shut down” Canada’s car industry.
Trump’s apparent aim is to force Canada to become America’s “51st state.” He telegraphed this ambition by repeatedly referring to Prime Minister Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau.” Recent history suggests we should take his words seriously.
Trump’s aggression strains credulity. There are no legitimate grievances. No security threats.Just pressure against a peaceful neighbour. His justification is economic nationalism – using tariffs to force jobs back home. But this is economically misguided. It will harm both nations. Nor can it justify his territorial claims.
Wall Street recognised this immediately. Stocks suffered their worst two-day drop since August, only recovering slightly when Ontario backed down.
Mark Carney, selected as Liberal Party leader amid this crisis and poised to replace Trudeau as Prime Minister, faced an impossible choice: surrender sovereignty or watch methodical economic harm unfold. His pledge to fight “until Americans show us respect” contrasts sharply with Washington’s hostility.
All this sends a clear signal to America’s adversaries. Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran watch as the US threatens its closest ally. They know a United States without friends stands alone.
For New Zealand, the implications are sobering. The US’s protectionist tariffs of the 1930s deepened the Great Depression through global retaliation. Today’s trade wars risk similar damage.
Our economy relies heavily on agricultural exports, with nearly NZ$4 billion annually in meat and dairy products shipped to the US. Similar tariffs, combined with disruptions from a global trade war and a US recession, could slash GDP by 1–2% and devastate rural communities.
When even Canada faces economic threats, New Zealand must prepare for a world where rules matter less than might.
Roger Partridge is chairman and a co-founder of The New Zealand Initiative and is a senior member of its research team. He led law firm Bell Gully as executive chairman from 2007 to 2014. This article was first published HERE
5 comments:
Trump seems intent on turning the US into some type of isolationist fortress economy, completely contrary to the Republican philosophies. The tarrifs on raw materials are not only against Canada but also Australia, Brazil and anyone else, regardless of their ties with the States. By hiking the costs of raw materials in the States, it won't be the Canadian car industry that is destroyed.
I note that the essay did not factor in Export dollar returns to New Zealand from meat and other food exports to US. When there is a larger currency difference our producers do gain substantially and so does NZ. The real issue is cutting offshore imports and payments when the $NZ is low . ie coal from Indonesia , payments to Paris Accord folly and of course gormless Reserve Bank fund flirtations costing eleven thousand million dollars NZD11,000,000,000.00
" There are no legitimate grievances." There are and have been grievances. Firstly there has been the position of the "leaking" boarder allowing easy access to fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the US --that has now been addressed after discussions between Trudeau and Trump.
There has been ongoing issues with Canadian tariffs on US goods. Trump talked about this during his first administration.
For example, as at October 31 2024 the following tariff examples applied :
Dairy - milk (270%) cheese (245%) butter (298%)
Poultry - chicken (238%)
Ag. - eggs (163%) meat (26.5%)
Cars -- 25%
Metals --steel (25%) Aluminum (45%) Cooper (48%)
So there is two sides to the story.
NZ has had a long, on going trade dispute with Canada concerning dairy products.
I doubt President Trump is serious about Canada becoming the 51st state. It is a bit of trolling to get people thinking. I think his administration has indicated recently that they would welcome a much closer economic relationship, without being specific on what that would look like.
"His justification is economic nationalism – using tariffs to force jobs back home." In case you are not aware, the USA is up to it's neck in debt and not far away from serious economic problems (if it is not already there). Continuing to do things the same way is not going to solve that issue. They have to find new ways have to approach it.
'New Zealand must prepare for a world where rules matter less than might' - this how it has always been and always will be, to pretend otherwise is being naive.
Ross says there are two sides to the story.
So perhaps we should look at a few things he left out of his story about grievances..
First, the fentanyl grievance. There is no fentanyl grievance. Last year the US is reported as having intercepted 21,148 pounds of fentanyl at the Mexican border. They intercepted 43 pounds from Canada. Using fentanyl as a justification for tariffs is therefore a complete fabrication by Trump, provable by hard data.
Then there is the grievance over dairy tariffs. There have been no tariffs paid. Canada certainly has the right to impose tariffs on various US imports including: Milk: Up to 243% …. Butter: Up to 298% …. Cheese: Up to 245%.” But these rates are legally part of the US-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement, a deal negotiated by Trump in 2018 during his first term in office. To assert they have suddenly become a grievance is a bit rich. But more importantly, the USMCA provides that the tariffs on US dairy imports into Canada only apply when a predetermined quota has been exceeded. Everything imported below the quota is allowed entry free of tariff. And here's the thing. The US has never got close to exceeding the quotas specified in the USMCA. That means all dairy imports from the US under the USMCA (negotiated by Trump remember) have been free of tariff. So, if there have been no tariffs paid, how can there possibly be a grievance? Another Trump fabrication.
Finally, it's worth noting that New Zealand's grievance with Canada is being dealt with through established WTO dispute resolution processes. If the US had a real grievance with Canada it should use those procedures to resolve it. That's precisely why the WTO was formed. But no. The US prefers to exercise naked power and is actively working towards collapsing the WTO by blocking the appointment of new judges to its Appellate Body. And that's more of a threat to New Zealand's interests than any one-off dispute with Canada.
Trudeau got it spot on when he stated the US tariffs have one purpose; to collapse the Canadian economy and thereby facilitate a US takeover of the country. Ross is naive in the extreme if he does not understand that.
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