David Farrar: Liberals looking comfortable in Canada

The Canadian election is on Monday (Tuesday NZ time) and the Liberal Party has gone from being 20% behind a few months ago and facing a loss of well over 100 seats to leading in most polls and projected to win re-election.

They may not get a majority, which needs 172 seats. Current projections have them getting 186 seats. 338 Canada projects they have an 89% chance of winning the most seats and a 68% chance of getting a majority.

The chances of a Conservative majority is now under 1% and in December the chances were over 99%! Trump has destroyed the chances of the Canadian Conservative Party with his attacks on Canada.

The seat projections are:

1. Liberals 186 (+26 from 2021)
2. Conservatives 124 (+5)
3. Bloc Quebécois 24 (-8)
4. NDP 8 (-13)
5. Greens 1 (-1)

The last few polls have shown the race getting tighter, so the Conservatives may do better than the projections, but the betting markets have the Liberals at between 82% and 88% favourites to win, so it would be a real upset.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.