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Thursday, May 1, 2025

David Farrar: Liberals a minority Government again


As expected the Liberal Party won the Canadian election, but they have fallen short of a majority.

Here’s how each party has gone.

Liberals
  • Vote went from 32.6% to 43.5%
  • Seats went from 160 to 168
Conservatives
  • Vote went from 33.7% to 41.4%
  • Seats went from 119 to 144
In a shock though leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat

NDP
  • Vote went from 17.8% to 6.2%
  • Seats went from 25 to 7
Leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat. The NDP has also lost party status in the Parliament.

Bloc Quebécois
  • Vote went from 7.6% to 5.4%
  • Seats went from 32% to 23
Greens
  • Vote went from 2.3% to 1.2%
  • Seats went from 2 to 1
People’s
  • Vote went from 4.9% to 0.7%
  • Seats went from 0 to 0
Mark Carney will be able to govern either with support from the NDP or the BQ so it should be a fairly stable minority Government.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.

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