In both countries, the centre-right was flying high in the polls, with leads of up to 20% in Canada and 10% in Australia. In both countries, those leads had evaporated by the time the election took place, leading to victories for centre-left parties that had only recently been counted out. In both countries, hard-charging conservative leaders who had seemed on the cusp of becoming prime minister were instead out of parliament, having lost their seats.
What happened?
No election result is monocausal, and these elections were no exception. Canada’s centre-left Liberals got a boost after the once-popular Justin Trudeau fell on his sword and Mark Carney, his technocratic successor, proved a hit with voters. Peter Dutton, the leader of Australia’s centre-right coalition, was never a popular figure.
But commentators across the English-speaking world have been pointing to one man as playing a decisive role in both these elections: Donald Trump.
Trump’s impact is especially clear in Canada, which saw a resurgence of patriotism after Trump called for it to become the US’s ‘51st state.’ The Liberals, led by the cosmopolitan Carney, were the beneficiaries.
This was largely because of the perceived Trumpishness of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who railed against the World Economic Forum and pledged to defund the state-run Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Dutton set up a ‘government efficiency’ platform that echoed Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Centre-right parties should obviously learn from this, especially in terms of presentation. Poilievre’s Trump-like habit of adding derisive epithets to his opponent’s names (‘Carbon-tax Carney’) was never likely to go down well in a country with a notorious penchant for politeness.
But there is also a danger of over-correcting. The Conservatives’ share of the vote in Canada was the highest since 1988, with the Liberals limited to a minority government. In Australia, the coalition won 32% of first-preference votes, only 3% fewer than the victorious Labour party. This suggests that a robust policy platform can win a healthy share of the vote.
As voters across the Anglosphere have made clear, though, there is a line – the line that divides robust but civilised democratic politics from Trump’s MAGAlomania.
Dr James Kierstead is Senior Lecturer in Classics at Victoria University of Wellington.This article was first published HERE
But commentators across the English-speaking world have been pointing to one man as playing a decisive role in both these elections: Donald Trump.
Trump’s impact is especially clear in Canada, which saw a resurgence of patriotism after Trump called for it to become the US’s ‘51st state.’ The Liberals, led by the cosmopolitan Carney, were the beneficiaries.
This was largely because of the perceived Trumpishness of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who railed against the World Economic Forum and pledged to defund the state-run Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Dutton set up a ‘government efficiency’ platform that echoed Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Centre-right parties should obviously learn from this, especially in terms of presentation. Poilievre’s Trump-like habit of adding derisive epithets to his opponent’s names (‘Carbon-tax Carney’) was never likely to go down well in a country with a notorious penchant for politeness.
But there is also a danger of over-correcting. The Conservatives’ share of the vote in Canada was the highest since 1988, with the Liberals limited to a minority government. In Australia, the coalition won 32% of first-preference votes, only 3% fewer than the victorious Labour party. This suggests that a robust policy platform can win a healthy share of the vote.
As voters across the Anglosphere have made clear, though, there is a line – the line that divides robust but civilised democratic politics from Trump’s MAGAlomania.
Dr James Kierstead is Senior Lecturer in Classics at Victoria University of Wellington.This article was first published HERE
6 comments:
What exactly are these robust and civilised policies? Are they everything the WEF or EU proclaim to be true? Forced medical procedures and the requirement to carry vaccination passports? The shutting down of our country causing business closures and lack of jobs? Men in women's sports? A push towards tribalism? DEI. That's where we were heading. President Trump is signing trade deals with the UK and others who once were anti, he is now negotiating closely with China to correct a large trade imbalance, he has managed to get closer to a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.He is putting a stop to inane human foolishness. Hopefully we will follow suit but I am not holding my breath. People are pretty silly if their vote is simply anti-Trump, don't you agree? I mean, that is just so short-sighted.
Indeed - but this is how " empathetic" people can vote.
Why are the commentators obsessed with the Trump factor? I have yet to talk to any one ie any 'person in the street' who considered the Trump factor. The US voters did not worry about the world- they worried about jobs, homes and cost of living. So to, imho, the Aus voters who were also ultimately unexcited by the Liberal campaign.
I didn't know I had been influenced by Trump until after I voted and was told I had been.
Trump????
Cost of living, domestic violence policies, stability of income .. yes.
But Trump????
Perhaps unsurprising but the world is finally acknowledging a new sheriff in town who, unlike his predecessors, remains focused on doing what he promised the American people he would do.
And it looks as if most of his attempts at restructuring the world economic order are bearing fruit.
He never promised that he would succeed in everything he tried - only that he would take on the existing world order as no other before him simply because it was in everybody’s interest to do so.
No one is expecting him to succeed in everything he tries but it is refreshing to see the leader of the Free World using his position of authority in order to bring about peace and prosperity to a world struggling for survival.
Trump doesn’t pretend to be anything other than, like the rest of us, a flawed human being but does expect us to respond favourably to his unique method of getting things done.
He is a deal maker - not a politician. That is his greatest strength.
Unlike most other world leaders, he doesn’t owe anything to people who helped get him to where he is.
My hope is that the US electorate will respond favourably to his efforts on their behalf - they have nothing to loose but much to gain..
Precisely Janine and Clive , If only NZ had some courage from the PM , some leadership qualities , some vision and experience , some time paying a wage claim . PM Luxon doesn't even listen to others.
James, perhaps Trump is cleverer than he looks? After years of Trudeau style deterioration, maybe Trump knew just another few years would see a final Canadian collapse onto the embrace of the USA? Was that the plan?
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