Because Winnie was actually Chippy's only credible path back to being prime minister again. Without Winnie, Chippy is completely stuffed, because the alternatives are not real options.
The alternatives are:
One - being in a coalition with a couple of loony parties, which centre voters are absolutely not going to go for. So you can forget about that.
The other is that Labour is returned as a majority Government again, which is, after what happened last time, not going to happen for a very long time again.
So basically, there is no way back for Chippy. He will not be Prime Minister after 2026, if ever.
Now a lot of people would say to me at this juncture - well of course not, National were always going to win the next election anyway, so this is just a completely spurious argument.
But I would say to you is - Labour's chances are actually a little bit better than you might think, because what we have right now is hardly a wildly popular Government.
These guys were elected, remember, telling us they were going to turn this economy around. 18 months later, they have not turned this economy around. 18 months later, we are still in the economic doldrums.
We are yet to see a vision, economically, from the coalition Government, the right track, wrong track indicator that comes out in multiple polls now is heavily negative for this Government.
Thousands of people are voting with their feet and leaving the country altogether.
People vote with their hip pocket, right? Forget about everything else. If you just look at the economy, that is your greatest determiner of what happens at the election. People vote with their hip pocket - and right now, the hip pocket is suffering, it is not looking good for the economy.
But also, there should be a target right now on Chippy's back in Labour, because Winnie's problem is not with Labour.
Winnie's problem is with Chris Hipkins, which means a different leader and Winston Peters is back in the game as a possibility for Labour. Now that requires Labour to roll Chris Hipkins and then their chances are good again.
However, that requires Labour actually realizing that they need Winston Peters to form a coalition Government after 2026 - and that requires them also realizing there is no way they can coalesce with the Māori Party because most voters are allergic to the shenanigans that that party get up to.
But I don't think Labour is smart enough to realize that yet, do you?
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show HERE - where this article was sourced.
6 comments:
The Coalition might be more popular if Luxon had not blatantly betrayed voters over race relations. People fully understand the mess inherited from the treacherous Left . But Luxon cooked his " personal integrity" goose over the ACT Bill where he cynically dismissed the right of the people to give their view on the most critical issue for NZ's future. Ironically Hipkins - a despicable politician by any metric - fully gets Luxon's error. NZ is not well led.
So, inflation down from 7%, mortgage rates down, rent rises below inflation but no, National are not delivering economic recovery (yeah right). Maybe the real reason people are leaving is the dual standards of citizenship that they are too afraid to speak out against?
'Subliminal' and ever more visible apartheid IS the real reason why people are leaving. I told my National MP that unless they and Luxon deal with the racist issues of Maorification and co-governance there would not be an economy worth saving. They have clearly ignored that warning and I bet I'm not the only person that issued it.
They may get a very harsh message in 2026!
Not 'may' Anon@9:49 - WILL get a harsh message!
Chose you line, Heather - either the economy wasn’t in such a bad shape in 2023 so we expect it to be hunky dory in 18 months, or it was pretty bad and needs a lot to recover. National have their shortcomings but economy is not one of them.
Post a Comment