Health Minister Simeon Brown has announced that from December 2025 onwards, no new prescriptions for puberty‐blocking medications (specifically GnRH analogues) will be issued for minors for “gender‐affirming care” for gender dysphoria. It is technically until the results of a major UK-based clinical trial expected in 2031 come in, but anyone with a brain can see that any trial will prove that there are few if any benefits and significant lifelong side effects. Unfortunately, current users can continue treatment. The drugs also remain available for other uses (such as precocious puberty, prostate cancer, endometriosis).
Supporters of the decision, like myself, are celebrating a long-time-coming win for protecting children from a treatment that has lifelong consequences. On the other hand, trans-activist-captured advocacy groups including the Professional Association for Transgender Health Aotearoa (PATHA), are calling it an inappropriate political intrusion into clinical care and losing their minds. The media are amplifying the latter.
I wrote about the ban more comprehensively here.
Health Minister Simeon Brown. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii.
Labour candidates
The Labour Party has begun rolling out its candidates for next year’s election, and the choices reveal a lot about where the party thinks it can regain ground and where it’s simply trying to survive.
In Whāngārei, Labour has selected emergency doctor Gary Payinda to take on National’s Dr Shane Reti. Dr Payinda has spent nearly two decades in public healthcare and Labour is leaning hard into that narrative, clearly hoping that Dr Payinda’s professional credibility can cut through. But Dr Reti is famous for being ‘one of the good guys,’ a truly decent and dignified man and Dr Payinda has not exhibited much of that behaviour on X over the years. Though his recent purge of all his X history suggests he may be wanting to rewrite that history.
Labour has chosen Sophie Handford as its candidate for the reshaped Kāpiti electorate. Handford founded School Strike 4 Climate NZ and is a Kāpiti Coast councillor. She likely represents the party’s attempt to energise younger and climate-conscious voters.
Meanwhile, Ōhāriu incumbent MP Greg O’Connor is fighting for his political life, and the new Wellington Central electorate, despite polling well. Greg O’Connor faces challenges from Dr Ayesha Verrall and trans activist/misogynist Shaneel Lal. It has been somewhat of an open joke that the older white men of Labour know they are on borrowed time. David Parker resigned earlier this term and there is speculation that Damien O’Connor will too. I actually thought he had already but when I Googled it I instead found old reports of David Carter calling for his resignation in 1998, more calls for his resignation in 2001, in 2007, in 2009, and him telling Newshub to “f*** off” in 2023. So predicting his resignation may be futile.
Disgraced former Transport Minister Michael “River of Filth” Wood has formally announced his political comeback too. He has thrown his hat back into the ring as the Labour Party candidate for Mt Roskill, the very electorate he lost in 2023.
IPSOS and polling
The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey shows the government’s public performance rating plunged to 3.9 out of 10. Meanwhile, the opposition, mostly the Labour Party, is polling as the party best able to handle 15 of the top 20 issues identified by voters (including cost-of-living, health and housing). The coalition is haemorrhaging trust while Labour is quietly re-positioning. They have been playing a ‘small target’ strategy and it has paid off thus far.
Bad polls almost always mean leadership change chat and the whisper-network has been in motion for some time. Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith handled the media skilfully yesterday saying that the only people talking about leadership change are the “chatterati” and singled out Matthew Hooton and Barry Soper as the main culprits. Goldsmith told Ryan Bridge, “as long as I can remember, [Hooton’s] been writing columns that the National leader is no good and they’re going to be rolled”. Fair.
The Government will not be happy with where they are at, particularly National. As I say ad nauseum, in politics, control over narrative matters just as much as policy delivery. When a party’s performance rating hits record lows, it weakens its ability to set the agenda and react from a position of strength.
WATCH: I spoke about this with Duncan Garner this week on his podcast.
Sanson in mourning after devastating family loss
The small Manawatū town of Sanson has been shattered by the news of a house fire that killed three young siblings, August, 7, Hugo, 5, and baby Goldie, 1. Their father, Dean Field, also died and police have since confirmed they are treating the tragedy as a triple-homicide/suicide with no other suspects being sought. Such a brutal and terrible case of family annihilation is impossible for the community to comprehend. It is a scale of grief that defies language. “Loss beyond measure,” as the children’s mother, Chelsey Field, put it.
Greens condemn New Zealand to economic ruin and Peters savages them
The Greens have promised to revoke existing consents for coal, hard-rock gold, and seabed mining projects. More than just another ideological flourish from a party addicted to symbolism, it is a direct threat to New Zealand’s economic credibility and ability to attract longterm investment. Investors make decisions on decades-long horizons, not election cycle vibes and when a political party openly vows to tear up legally granted approvals, it sends a neon-lit message to international capital that New Zealand is not a safe place to put your money.
Winston Peters captured the essence of the situation with his characteristic wit and savageness saying the Greens have “proven how economically moronic and backward they are” by threatening to destroy the legal stability that underpins job creation and investment.
Winston Peters. NZME photograph by Mark Mitchell
The Greens may think this is a blow against the evil forces of extraction, but what it really is is a blow against workers, exporters, and every New Zealander who benefits from a functioning economy. Once a country becomes known for retrospectively rewriting rules and invalidating settled processes, the price of capital goes up, foreign investment dries up, and projects that could have delivered regional jobs, tax revenue and export growth simply don’t go ahead.
Peters also expressed in poetic brutality that the Greens impress only “brainwashed climate catastrophe clowns” who’d happily impose massive costs on taxpayers while shutting down industries that keep communities alive. It explains, says Peters, why in 53 years the party has never been trusted with a seat in Cabinet.
Te Pāti ain’t over yet…
This week has been a quieter, but still bruising, one for Te Pāti Māori. The latest is that the party has refused to attend a major hui in Te Tai Tokerau, organised by Te Rūnanga ā Iwi o Ngāpuhi to address the turmoil. The party sent a letter to the iwi saying they had been advised by rangatira not to attend and that doing so might be seen as interfering with “ongoing legal matters.” Kohewhata Marae chair Mane Tahere called the response unacceptable and said the decision sent “a loud message” about how little the party seemed to value its voters in the north.
Then MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke broke her silence, describing the situation inside the party as feeling like “a divorce between two parents.” She said she had spent six months watching people “point fingers” with no one taking responsibility for the chaos. She announced she will hold her own hui in her electorate in two weeks to let her community advise her on whether she should stay with the party. I guess that means we have another fortnight of drama at the very least.
Meanwhile, legal action looms. Mariameno Kapa-Kingi signalled this week that she expects to take the party to court over what she calls an unconstitutional and improperly conducted expulsion process. Her claim that required membership meetings weren’t held, or were held with only a handful of people present, will, if tested in court, drag the party into a messy and highly public legal fight just as it should be gearing up for an election year.
Crime stats at 10 year low in Auckland CBD, but homelessness still a problem
Despite official crime statistics show public disorder is at a ten-year low, in Auckland, areas like Queen Street are increasingly dominated by rough sleeping, aggression, begging, open drug and alcohol use, and behaviour that makes people feel unsafe. Ninety-one percent of CBD businesses surveyed say it’s hurting trade and damaging the city’s reputation.
Auckland cannot build a vibrant, economically resilient city centre if vulnerable people with complex needs are living in shop doorways, blocking entrances, intimidating passers-by, or creating conditions that drive customers away. Mayor Wayne Brown has backed the idea of move on orders, arguing current bylaws are toothless and the city needs stronger tools to restore confidence.
The orders would give police or authorised officers the power to direct someone to leave a defined area if their presence is causing disruption, safety concerns, or persistent nuisance. They aren’t meant to be mass eviction powers, but targeted interventions that stop situations escalating and keep key commercial zones functioning. The Government emphasises that move-on orders would sit alongside housing, financial, and mental health government services to ensure the goal is not punishment but practical management.
Too much preaching and not enough teaching
The Teaching Council finally dropped a clearly vexatious complaint against a teacher who posted a lawful political opinion online. It took six months for the Council to realise that expressing a personal view on social media is not, in fact, misconduct. As ACT’s Laura McClure noted, teachers were literally helping students make protest signs in class against the Treaty Principles Bill with no consequences, yet a teacher disagreeing with the Council’s own political opposition to the Bill triggered a disciplinary investigation.
The Teaching Council is also facing a high-level probe into allegations it spent a significant chunk of our taxes paying a firm run by the Council CEO’s husband. Between policing teachers’ political opinions and now grappling with a procurement scandal, the Teaching Council has undermined its credibility and trustworthiness.
Food prices: the statistics
Food prices are still higher than they were a year ago, up 4.7% in the year to October, but the latest data shows clear signs that efforts to rein in the cost of living are beginning to take effect. For the second month in a row, food prices actually fell, dropping 0.3% overall. Most notably, vegetable prices plunged 10.7% in October alone, the largest monthly fall in nearly four years. Fruit and vegetables as a group were down 4.4% for the month. Yes, annual inflation across groceries, meat, dairy and other essentials is still elevated. But the direction of travel is what matters, and the monthly figures show things are starting to shift.
X post of the week
@rosey_nz said: It’s always interesting seeing how our legacy media use emotive language to push an agenda. According to the NZ Herald while Destiny Church’s pushing and shoving at a Drag Queen story time in a library was ‘violent’, the punching, pushing, & intimidation of women was just ‘heated’.
This week.
2023.
In short - other stuff that happened:
Click to view
This LinkedIn post from Eric Crampton (quoting Jeffery Wilson) is super interesting:
Wilson warns that Australia’s illicit tobacco market has grown so large that it is now distorting national economic data. Official household spending on alcohol and tobacco has collapsed since 2022, not because Australians are drinking or smoking less, but because a huge share of tobacco purchases has moved off the books and into the black market.
Eric Crampton notes that New Zealand’s illicit market is also growing fast and the shift to the black market has two major statistical consequences:
I wrote about the ban more comprehensively here.
Health Minister Simeon Brown. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii.
Labour candidates
The Labour Party has begun rolling out its candidates for next year’s election, and the choices reveal a lot about where the party thinks it can regain ground and where it’s simply trying to survive.
In Whāngārei, Labour has selected emergency doctor Gary Payinda to take on National’s Dr Shane Reti. Dr Payinda has spent nearly two decades in public healthcare and Labour is leaning hard into that narrative, clearly hoping that Dr Payinda’s professional credibility can cut through. But Dr Reti is famous for being ‘one of the good guys,’ a truly decent and dignified man and Dr Payinda has not exhibited much of that behaviour on X over the years. Though his recent purge of all his X history suggests he may be wanting to rewrite that history.
Labour has chosen Sophie Handford as its candidate for the reshaped Kāpiti electorate. Handford founded School Strike 4 Climate NZ and is a Kāpiti Coast councillor. She likely represents the party’s attempt to energise younger and climate-conscious voters.
Meanwhile, Ōhāriu incumbent MP Greg O’Connor is fighting for his political life, and the new Wellington Central electorate, despite polling well. Greg O’Connor faces challenges from Dr Ayesha Verrall and trans activist/misogynist Shaneel Lal. It has been somewhat of an open joke that the older white men of Labour know they are on borrowed time. David Parker resigned earlier this term and there is speculation that Damien O’Connor will too. I actually thought he had already but when I Googled it I instead found old reports of David Carter calling for his resignation in 1998, more calls for his resignation in 2001, in 2007, in 2009, and him telling Newshub to “f*** off” in 2023. So predicting his resignation may be futile.
Disgraced former Transport Minister Michael “River of Filth” Wood has formally announced his political comeback too. He has thrown his hat back into the ring as the Labour Party candidate for Mt Roskill, the very electorate he lost in 2023.
IPSOS and polling
The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey shows the government’s public performance rating plunged to 3.9 out of 10. Meanwhile, the opposition, mostly the Labour Party, is polling as the party best able to handle 15 of the top 20 issues identified by voters (including cost-of-living, health and housing). The coalition is haemorrhaging trust while Labour is quietly re-positioning. They have been playing a ‘small target’ strategy and it has paid off thus far.
Bad polls almost always mean leadership change chat and the whisper-network has been in motion for some time. Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith handled the media skilfully yesterday saying that the only people talking about leadership change are the “chatterati” and singled out Matthew Hooton and Barry Soper as the main culprits. Goldsmith told Ryan Bridge, “as long as I can remember, [Hooton’s] been writing columns that the National leader is no good and they’re going to be rolled”. Fair.
The Government will not be happy with where they are at, particularly National. As I say ad nauseum, in politics, control over narrative matters just as much as policy delivery. When a party’s performance rating hits record lows, it weakens its ability to set the agenda and react from a position of strength.
WATCH: I spoke about this with Duncan Garner this week on his podcast.
Sanson in mourning after devastating family loss
The small Manawatū town of Sanson has been shattered by the news of a house fire that killed three young siblings, August, 7, Hugo, 5, and baby Goldie, 1. Their father, Dean Field, also died and police have since confirmed they are treating the tragedy as a triple-homicide/suicide with no other suspects being sought. Such a brutal and terrible case of family annihilation is impossible for the community to comprehend. It is a scale of grief that defies language. “Loss beyond measure,” as the children’s mother, Chelsey Field, put it.
Greens condemn New Zealand to economic ruin and Peters savages them
The Greens have promised to revoke existing consents for coal, hard-rock gold, and seabed mining projects. More than just another ideological flourish from a party addicted to symbolism, it is a direct threat to New Zealand’s economic credibility and ability to attract longterm investment. Investors make decisions on decades-long horizons, not election cycle vibes and when a political party openly vows to tear up legally granted approvals, it sends a neon-lit message to international capital that New Zealand is not a safe place to put your money.
Winston Peters captured the essence of the situation with his characteristic wit and savageness saying the Greens have “proven how economically moronic and backward they are” by threatening to destroy the legal stability that underpins job creation and investment.
Winston Peters. NZME photograph by Mark Mitchell
The Greens may think this is a blow against the evil forces of extraction, but what it really is is a blow against workers, exporters, and every New Zealander who benefits from a functioning economy. Once a country becomes known for retrospectively rewriting rules and invalidating settled processes, the price of capital goes up, foreign investment dries up, and projects that could have delivered regional jobs, tax revenue and export growth simply don’t go ahead.
Peters also expressed in poetic brutality that the Greens impress only “brainwashed climate catastrophe clowns” who’d happily impose massive costs on taxpayers while shutting down industries that keep communities alive. It explains, says Peters, why in 53 years the party has never been trusted with a seat in Cabinet.
Te Pāti ain’t over yet…
This week has been a quieter, but still bruising, one for Te Pāti Māori. The latest is that the party has refused to attend a major hui in Te Tai Tokerau, organised by Te Rūnanga ā Iwi o Ngāpuhi to address the turmoil. The party sent a letter to the iwi saying they had been advised by rangatira not to attend and that doing so might be seen as interfering with “ongoing legal matters.” Kohewhata Marae chair Mane Tahere called the response unacceptable and said the decision sent “a loud message” about how little the party seemed to value its voters in the north.
Then MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke broke her silence, describing the situation inside the party as feeling like “a divorce between two parents.” She said she had spent six months watching people “point fingers” with no one taking responsibility for the chaos. She announced she will hold her own hui in her electorate in two weeks to let her community advise her on whether she should stay with the party. I guess that means we have another fortnight of drama at the very least.
Meanwhile, legal action looms. Mariameno Kapa-Kingi signalled this week that she expects to take the party to court over what she calls an unconstitutional and improperly conducted expulsion process. Her claim that required membership meetings weren’t held, or were held with only a handful of people present, will, if tested in court, drag the party into a messy and highly public legal fight just as it should be gearing up for an election year.
Crime stats at 10 year low in Auckland CBD, but homelessness still a problem
Despite official crime statistics show public disorder is at a ten-year low, in Auckland, areas like Queen Street are increasingly dominated by rough sleeping, aggression, begging, open drug and alcohol use, and behaviour that makes people feel unsafe. Ninety-one percent of CBD businesses surveyed say it’s hurting trade and damaging the city’s reputation.
Auckland cannot build a vibrant, economically resilient city centre if vulnerable people with complex needs are living in shop doorways, blocking entrances, intimidating passers-by, or creating conditions that drive customers away. Mayor Wayne Brown has backed the idea of move on orders, arguing current bylaws are toothless and the city needs stronger tools to restore confidence.
The orders would give police or authorised officers the power to direct someone to leave a defined area if their presence is causing disruption, safety concerns, or persistent nuisance. They aren’t meant to be mass eviction powers, but targeted interventions that stop situations escalating and keep key commercial zones functioning. The Government emphasises that move-on orders would sit alongside housing, financial, and mental health government services to ensure the goal is not punishment but practical management.
Too much preaching and not enough teaching
The Teaching Council finally dropped a clearly vexatious complaint against a teacher who posted a lawful political opinion online. It took six months for the Council to realise that expressing a personal view on social media is not, in fact, misconduct. As ACT’s Laura McClure noted, teachers were literally helping students make protest signs in class against the Treaty Principles Bill with no consequences, yet a teacher disagreeing with the Council’s own political opposition to the Bill triggered a disciplinary investigation.
The Teaching Council is also facing a high-level probe into allegations it spent a significant chunk of our taxes paying a firm run by the Council CEO’s husband. Between policing teachers’ political opinions and now grappling with a procurement scandal, the Teaching Council has undermined its credibility and trustworthiness.
Food prices: the statistics
Food prices are still higher than they were a year ago, up 4.7% in the year to October, but the latest data shows clear signs that efforts to rein in the cost of living are beginning to take effect. For the second month in a row, food prices actually fell, dropping 0.3% overall. Most notably, vegetable prices plunged 10.7% in October alone, the largest monthly fall in nearly four years. Fruit and vegetables as a group were down 4.4% for the month. Yes, annual inflation across groceries, meat, dairy and other essentials is still elevated. But the direction of travel is what matters, and the monthly figures show things are starting to shift.
X post of the week
@rosey_nz said: It’s always interesting seeing how our legacy media use emotive language to push an agenda. According to the NZ Herald while Destiny Church’s pushing and shoving at a Drag Queen story time in a library was ‘violent’, the punching, pushing, & intimidation of women was just ‘heated’.
This week.
2023.
In short - other stuff that happened:
- The Crimes Legislation (Stalking and Harassment) Amendment Bill has passed recognising the serious harm caused by stalking and harassment.
- Police have confirmed about 20 staff are under investigation after an audit of device and internet use found “misuse and inappropriate content”, a process that could lead to employment sanctions and possibly criminal charges.
- Labour MP Helen White’s bizarre rant about children dying due to vehicle emissions has prompted a reminder about keeping politicians’ families out of political point-scoring after she referred to a National MP’s kids, suggesting they would die.
- The Government has signed a fixed-price contract with a Chinese shipyard for two new rail-enabled Cook Strait ferries and associated port infrastructure, with Winston Peters trumpeting claimed savings of $2.3b compared with the blown-out previous project.
- 🇵🇹 In Portugal, prison guards at a women’s prison reportedly threatened to strike over a violent male prisoner (who “identified as” a woman) being housed there, leading authorities to transfer the inmate out of the women’s facility.
- Former Beca costings principal Carel Viljoen, who laundered nearly $2m in an investment scam that wiped out victims’ life savings, has avoided jail and been sentenced to home detention.
- Lady Tureiti Moxon has lodged a complaint with the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD), alleging ongoing discrimination against Māori by the government.
- A former “throuple” has had their multi-million-dollar New Zealand farm ordered split three ways after a six-year legal fight.
- The National Iwi Chairs Forum has filed court proceedings seeking clarity on how the Crown must uphold Treaty settlements as it pushes ahead with major resource management reforms.
- New Zealand citizenship application fees are going up by about 19% after 22 years of being unchanged. Our fees remain low by international standards.
- Whangamatā Community Board chair Mark Drury and his deputy walked out of a meeting during a pre-meeting karakia, then later apologised for any offence caused.
- 🇦🇺 Former NRL star Ian Roberts has slammed the NZ Breakers’ decision not to wear a Pride jersey as “absolute cowardice” and “homophobia”. I wrote about this issue this week.
- Auckland Pride is taking legal action over the Government-driven scrapping of Sport NZ’s transgender-inclusive community sports guidelines.
- Wellington City Council spent around $37,000 on Andrew Little’s mayoral swearing-in raising eyebrows given Little has been talking a lot about costs and priorities. He said this week that the council and its ratepayers “simply cannot sustain another cost blowout”.
- Customs have seized about 1.5 million illicit cigarettes and roughly $500,000 in cash, another big example of the black market created by very high tobacco taxes.
- An Education Review Office report finds the Government’s school phone ban is boosting focus, learning, and behaviour even though compliance among senior secondary students is patchy, backing Erica Stanford’s flagship policy.
- Christchurch ratepayers have been billed about $1.36m for Ngāi Tahu consultancy on council restructuring.
- Tauranga City councillors have received a 15.56% pay rise to $163k and the mayor’s salary has jumped to just over $193k, sparking obvious questions about pay versus performance and rates pressure.
- Emergency housing motels in Rotorua are finally being wound down and Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell is calling it the end of a damaging era for the city and a chance to reset its reputation.
- The Supreme Court has dismissed Uber’s final appeal and ruled that drivers are employees rather than contractors, a landmark decision that will have major implications for gig-economy work rights and employer costs.
- Labour MP Ingrid Leary posted, then deleted, a Facebook complaint that it was “pretty rude” the Government hadn’t invited her to an event, even though organisers had already sent her an invite and emails show her office responding saying she couldn’t attend.
Stuff I found interesting this week:
Two articles from New Zealand’s mainstream media piqued my interest this week!
First up, this Stuff article by Lloyd Burr breaks down the key difference between New Zealand’s current bright-line test and a full capital gains tax. If you want to understand what Labour is proposing, and what it would mean for property owners, investors, or anyone building wealth, this piece lays out the essentials quickly and plainly.
Secondly, Liam Dann of the NZ Herald’s Inside Economics newsletter focused on ‘The real reason economists are confident the recovery is coming’. In it, Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod argues that the strongest driver of New Zealand’s emerging economic recovery is the sharp fall in household interest costs. Despite the OCR having dropped 300 basis points, mortgage servicing costs have only just eased back to where they were in early 2024 because fixed-rate loans take time to roll over. As more households refix, billions of dollars in savings will flow back into the economy. Ranchhod estimates only 60% of lower rates have passed through so far, with another 40%, over $1 billion in household relief, still to come as 75% of mortgages reprice in the next six months. This “baked-in” stimulus underpins his confidence that the recovery “won’t happen overnight… but it will happen.”
Chart of the week:
Two articles from New Zealand’s mainstream media piqued my interest this week!
First up, this Stuff article by Lloyd Burr breaks down the key difference between New Zealand’s current bright-line test and a full capital gains tax. If you want to understand what Labour is proposing, and what it would mean for property owners, investors, or anyone building wealth, this piece lays out the essentials quickly and plainly.
Secondly, Liam Dann of the NZ Herald’s Inside Economics newsletter focused on ‘The real reason economists are confident the recovery is coming’. In it, Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod argues that the strongest driver of New Zealand’s emerging economic recovery is the sharp fall in household interest costs. Despite the OCR having dropped 300 basis points, mortgage servicing costs have only just eased back to where they were in early 2024 because fixed-rate loans take time to roll over. As more households refix, billions of dollars in savings will flow back into the economy. Ranchhod estimates only 60% of lower rates have passed through so far, with another 40%, over $1 billion in household relief, still to come as 75% of mortgages reprice in the next six months. This “baked-in” stimulus underpins his confidence that the recovery “won’t happen overnight… but it will happen.”
Chart of the week:
Click to view
This LinkedIn post from Eric Crampton (quoting Jeffery Wilson) is super interesting:
Wilson warns that Australia’s illicit tobacco market has grown so large that it is now distorting national economic data. Official household spending on alcohol and tobacco has collapsed since 2022, not because Australians are drinking or smoking less, but because a huge share of tobacco purchases has moved off the books and into the black market.
Eric Crampton notes that New Zealand’s illicit market is also growing fast and the shift to the black market has two major statistical consequences:
1. CPI and living-cost indices overstate actual consumer costs, because they measure only legal tobacco prices and ignore the growing proportion of cheap illicit purchases.
2. Tobacco excise revenue forecasts are becoming unreliable, and the Government should treat this as a fiscal risk in its next Budget update (BEFU 2026).
Ani O'Brien comes from a digital marketing background, she has been heavily involved in women's rights advocacy and is a founding council member of the Free Speech Union. This article was originally published on Ani's Substack Site and is published here with kind permission.
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