As we begin the final year of the National, ACT, New Zealand First Coalition’s first term of Government, it is instructive to look back at the commitments they made when first elected.
At that time the country faced significant challenges as a result of six years of mismanagement by Labour – firstly under the direction of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and then Chris Hipkins.
Those challenges included a cost-of-living crisis and an economic recession brought about by reckless borrowing and spending, a collapsing health system caused by bungled reforms, a failing education system, out-of-control crime, the highest-ever immigration rates, and an attempted race-based takeover of our democracy.
New Zealanders had had enough and voted for change.
In response the new Coalition outlined policies to heal the damage and restore growth and prosperity:
“The Coalition Government’s priorities for this term include rebuilding the economy, improving the quality of Government spending and regulation, lowering the cost of living, ending race based policies, introducing more choice and competition into social service provision, delivering better health and education, defending freedom and democracy, and improving the lives of seniors.”
The Coalition further committed to pro-democracy decision-making: “Upholding the principles of liberal democracy, including equal citizenship, parliamentary sovereignty, the rule of law and property rights.”
Two years on, the big question is, has the Coalition delivered on its promises?
When analysing the progress that’s been made, what becomes obvious is that the Coalition has delivered most strongly where it could move quickly through legislation, but its record is weaker on the structural promises that matter most to everyday life: lifting real incomes, easing cost‑of‑living pressures, and turning around outcomes in health and education.
Whether the Coalition will be judged a success and given a second term, will depend less on the volume of laws passed, and more on whether households feel better off by the time they go to the polls.
In other words, at the start of election year, the picture is mixed. In some areas, there’s genuine progress, but in others, the problems are far deeper and more entrenched than many New Zealanders realise.
The economy remains front of mind for most households. While inflation has eased from its peak and interest rates have stabilised, the cost of living is still biting. Food, insurance, rates, and energy prices have not returned to anything resembling ‘normal’, and many families feel they are running harder just to stand still.
This, of course, is where bolder economic reforms could have helped.
Research clearly shows the optimum size of government is around 25 percent of GDP. At that level the private sector has the room to innovate, expand and grow, creating the jobs, wealth and prosperity a country needs.
At over 30 percent, New Zealand’s government is too big and the State bureaucracy has become a real barrier to progress.
While the Coalition chose not to slash spending nor downsize the public service back to pre-Labour levels, they have nevertheless introduced strict belt tightening with a strong emphasis on the ‘reprioritisation’ of spending allowances.
With a focus on long‑term structural reforms such as replacing the RMA, rebuilding infrastructure, and tightening fiscal settings, the economic turnaround has been slow to materialise. This is not only because such changes take years to influence productivity, but also because the new Government inherited high inflation, weak growth, and elevated interest rates.
So while the Coalition can plausibly claim progress on stabilising the economy, with headline GDP figures now showing signs of improvement, their reforms have not yet transformed the situation for households.
When it comes to the labour market, over the last two years it has been reshaped by two powerful forces: the loss of New Zealanders overseas and high – then moderating – immigration inflows.
While strong migration has helped fill labour shortages in key sectors such as healthcare, construction, and hospitality, the pressure on infrastructure – housing, schools and hospitals in particular – has sparked local concern.
This has raised questions about the wisdom of the expanded migration pathways in New Zealand’s new trade agreement with India – which includes a new quota of 5,000 visas for migrant workers and the removal of all limits on Indian students and their families coming to New Zealand, with work rights of up to 20 hours a week and further rights thereafter.
Those concerns that are now emerging – which echo the unease seen abroad where rapid migration is straining social unity – have already been recognised as important by New Zealand First, which appears poised to make them an election issue.
With regards to New Zealand’s housing shortfall, the underlying structural issues that caused the problems have not gone away. Years of under‑building, restrictive planning rules, infrastructure bottlenecks, sluggish consenting systems, and now runaway building costs, means New Zealand still carries a substantial housing deficit, in spite of the progress that’s been made.
Law and order, on the other hand, has been one of the Coalition’s strongest “delivery” areas. They can point to concrete legislative and policy changes, including tougher sentencing and bail settings, more police with more powers, and a greater focus on the major problem areas of gangs and youth offending, where some supportive statistics are now emerging.
When it comes to health, the Coalition inherited a system in chaos. Labour’s decision to abolish our democratically run District Health Boards in the middle of the pandemic in order to pass control of health to tribal authorities, has to rank as one of the country’s worst-ever political decisions. It was not only reckless – it cost lives.
As a result the Coalition is not only struggling to stabilise a badly disrupted system – one that is heavily influenced by hostile pro-Labour unions – but the problems are now affecting outcomes in welfare.
With the economy still in a downturn, overall benefit numbers have continued to increase, peaking at 410,000, with almost 13 percent of the working age population now on income support. While most benefit categories increased only marginally, the exception was a 9.8 percent rise – to almost 100,000 – in the number of people who receive Jobseeker Support because they are too unwell to work.
Behind those statistics lies a complex mix of pressures including growing numbers with mental health concerns, along with an alarming rise in cardiac illness and chronic disorders – a consequence not only of an aging population and Covid, but also of the mass cancellation of screening, surgery, and follow‑up care during the pandemic. In addition, the GP shortage has resulted in delayed diagnosis and treatment with conditions that could have been addressed early becoming disabling.
In education there has been progress in restoring a “back to basics” approach, with a strong focus on improving literacy, numeracy, and attendance. And while early indicators are positive, like many deep-seated reforms, not only will the benefits of improving assessment and the curriculum take time to appear, but the Coalition will have to overcome resistance from anti-government unions, as well as woke teachers, headmasters, and school boards.
When it comes to ending race‑based policies the Coalition has been a disappointment. Instead of being eliminated, Labour’s He Puapua programme to replace democracy with tribal rule, not only remains embedded within the country’s legislative and regulatory framework, but tribal authorities are pulling out all the stops to impose their authority onto the country.
This is a matter that strikes at the heart of national identity – whether New Zealand sees itself as a modern future-focused democracy where all citizens are equal before the law, or whether we are turning into a backwater irretrievably divided by race.
Despite the clear mandate against racial division and co‑governance that was delivered to the Coalition at the election, not only are activist Treaty principle clauses continuing to shape policy advice and decision‑making, but official references to the original Treaty of Waitangi are being replaced with Te Tiriti – a radicalised version that embodies He Puapua through Treaty partnerships and co-governance.
The consequences can be seen in the Courts, where legislation is increasingly interpreted by activist Judges through the lens of tikanga in ways that exceed Parliament’s intent and undermine the Rule of Law.
While the Coalition has taken steps to restore democratic accountability and equal citizenship, so much of the bureaucracy has demonstrated outright resistance that without decisive action to remove divisive race‑based provisions from law and practice, and to reassert the primacy of Parliament, the drift towards tribal governance will continue. This represents an enormous threat to the New Zealand democracy if Labour wins the election.
Finally, looking at political dynamics, recent polling shows all six Parliamentary parties in a finely balanced contest. National and Labour are effectively tied in the low‑30s, ACT and the Greens are steady around 9-11 percent, New Zealand First holds a pivotal 7-8 percent, and the Maori Party maintains its influence through the Maori electorates.
National remains the largest single party but has lost momentum, while Labour has recovered enough to be competitive again. ACT and New Zealand First remain essential to any centre‑right majority, just as the Greens and the Maori Party are indispensable to any centre‑left arrangement.
With both blocs sitting within a few seats of each other across the major polls, the election would be too close to call if it was held tomorrow, with either a narrow National‑led or Labour‑led coalition possible depending on small shifts in support and turnout.
A second dynamic that will play out this year is the voter shift within Coalition parties. Here National could take some salient lessons from the rise of the Reform Party in the UK and the demise of the Conservatives.
As this week’s NZCPR Guest commentator Dr Frank Furedi, an Emeritus Professor of Sociology at the University of Kent and the executive director of the think-tank MCC-Brussels, explains, Reform is becoming a credible contender to win the next UK General Election:
“This turn against the Tory-Labour duopoly has been a long time coming. Ever since the public voted to leave the EU in 2016, against the wishes of the entire establishment, it has been clear that there is a widespread appetite for a populist challenge to the status quo. In many ways, then, Reform owes its success less to the efforts of the party itself – or even to the performance of its leader, Nigel Farage – than to this widespread, popular demand for change. A lot of people have been yearning for a movement that finally gives them a voice.”
With this “yearning for a voice” fuelling the rise of populist parties across the West, New Zealand is not immune.
While National appears blind to the threat, its Coalition partners are not.
National’s problem is that it is increasingly seen as too establishment – and too weak to tackle the issues that really matter to voters.
As a result, New Zealand First and ACT will undoubtedly position themselves as movements that give voters a voice, making inroads into National’s support.
Under MMP, the results are not likely to be as dramatic as the demise of the Conservative Party in the UK, but the effect could be enough to alter the influence the minor parties have on post-election Coalition negotiations.
Looking at the broader picture, the advantage the governing Coalition has over the ‘toxic trio’ of Labour, the Greens, and the Maori Party, is that they are selling a political “product” – prosperity and equality – that most people want, whereas the spectre of higher taxes and tribal rule offered by the radical left is not on the wish list of voters who still have the carnage of the Ardern-Hipkins years fresh in their mind.
So, as New Zealand heads towards the polls, the big question is whether the Coalition has done enough to persuade voters to give them a second term. For the sake of the country – and our future – let’s hope the answer is “Yes”!
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THIS WEEK’S POLL ASKS:
*Which of the Coalition parties do you believe has been the strongest performer over the last two years – National, ACT, or New Zealand First?
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