Ian Bradford: Bits and Pieces

Those who believe that humans are causing global warming sometimes agree, that warming has occurred in the past without the influence of humans but argue that it is the speed of the present warming that convinces them humans are responsible. They either don’t know about, or simply ignore the Younger Dryas. In fact, the Younger Dryas is one important example of an abrupt change. Throughout the Earth’s history there have been serious ice ages. About 14,500 years ago, Earth’s climate began to shift from one of those cold glacial worlds to a warmer interglacial state. However, part of the way through this transition, temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere SUDDENLY returned to near glacial conditions. This near glacial period is known as the Younger Dryas, named after the flower Dryas Octopetala, that grows in cold conditions and that became common in Europe during this time. The end of the Younger Dryas about 11,500 years ago was particularly abrupt. IN GREENLAND, TEMPERATURES ROSE 10 DEG C IN JUST 10 YEARS! (Alley, 2000). Proxy records including lake sediments in Europe, display these abrupt shifts. (Brauer et al, 2008).

This makes the 1.5 Deg C temperature rise since the Industrial Revolution a bit of a joke. That means on average, a temperature rise in 10 years of just 0.1 Deg C. Compare this to the 10 Deg C temperature rise in 10 years during the Younger Dryas. AND HUMANS HAD NO INFLUENCE.

The Younger Dryas is clearly observable in paleoclimate records from many parts of the world. The story in Antarctic is somewhat different. Ice core records show that climate changes in Antarctica were out of phase with those in the Northern Hemisphere. An isotope of hydrogen-deuterium, is proportional to temperature. The deuterium record shows temperatures in the Antarctic ROSE during the Younger Dryas.

Scientists have theorised that, just prior to the Younger Dryas meltwater from the North American ice sheet was re-routed from the Mississippi river to the St Lawrence river. A more northerly routing of meltwater has a greater impact on the salinity and density of the surface ocean in the north Atlantic, which can cause a slowing of the oceans thermohaline circulation and cause climate changes around the world. Multiple proxies for the thermohaline circulation, indicate that such changes occurred during the Younger Dryas. (Thermohaline= warm salt water).

If the thermohaline circulation were to slow, less heat would be transported from the South Atlantic to the North Atlantic. This would cause the South Atlantic to warm and the North Atlantic to cool. This pattern is sometimes called the “bipolar see saw”. So what happens is the Northern Hemisphere cools and the Southern Hemisphere warms as the warm water at the equator tends to stay at the equator. Multiple proxies for the thermoline circulation indicate such changes occurred during the Younger Dryas.(McManus et al 2004, Pretorius et al 2008.) Eventually, as the meltwater abated, the climate recovered.

The Gulf Stream is a powerful and warm Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, flows up the eastern coastline of the United States, and then heads towards northwestern Europe. It is a vital component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of currents that redistribute heat throughout the Atlantic Ocean. The AMOC acts like a giant conveyor belt, transporting warm surface water northward and cold dense water southward. As warm water flows northward, it cools and becomes saltier through evaporation and sea ice formation. This denser water then sinks driving the return flow southward at depth. The melting of ice and glaciers in Greenland and the Arctic causes an influx of fresh water into the North Atlantic. This reduces the salinity of the surface water, making it less dense and less likely to sink. This disruption weakens the AMOC and subsequently slows the Gulf Stream.

Recent studies have indicated that the Gulf Stream has slowed by about 4% over the past 40 years. This could pose threats to weather patterns. Northwestern Europe could experience colder winters. There will be changes in weather patterns. With more extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods and there will be changes in ocean temperatures. The Southern Hemisphere may warm. It is possible that the Gulf Stream could stop altogether.

Now the climate alarmists claim that because of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet is melting and putting fresh water into the ocean in the northern latitudes. The Greenland ice sheet is indeed melting, but not from global warming. Japanese researchers under Dr. Genti Toyokini of Tohuku University recently discovered a flow of molten rocks known as a mantle plume, rising up beneath the island. It melts Greenland’s ice from below. The plume has two branches , and the second one arises under Iceland and is responsible for the active volcano in recent times there. As far as the Arctic is concerned, it is simply a mass of floating ice and if it melts does not add anything to sea level. This includes all floating ice such as ice shelves, and icebergs.

The freshwater enters the northern Atlantic and disrupts the gulf stream as indicated previously, but only by a relatively small amount compared to the Younger Dryas. But perhaps it is enough to explain the unusual weather events around the world, such as excess rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves and so on. THESE UNUSUAL WEATHER EVENTS WERE EVIDENT DURING THE YOUNGER DRYAS, WHEN AS STATED PREVIOUSLY, THE GULF STREAM SLOWED RIGHT DOWN.

The slowing of the Gulf Stream can affect the formation of low pressure areas and low cloud formation. Research shows the Gulf stream affects the entire troposphere. Weather far outside the Gulf Stream is affected. A shift in the Gulf Stream’s trajectory and strength can have profound consequences for the weather patterns, climate, and coastal communities.

I have mentioned that the Northern hemisphere cools while the Southern hemisphere tends to warm. The extremely cold winters experienced in the north over the past few years is never mentioned in the media. We only hear about the warm days. However, many low temperature records have been set in the north recently. Some high temperatures have been seen in the south.

Here are a few facts about the cold in the north: In the winter of 2020/2021, new record low temperatures were experienced in many places . In January in Asia, and in February 2021 in Nth America, Europe, the Mediterranean countries and the Middle East.

Worst Snowfall in 50 plus years hits Moscow. Manitoba set 20 new cold records in one day and cars have been buried under snow in Britain.

Record smashing snow and ice storms leave 5 million Americans without power. The situation is critical.

Greece suffers the most intense snowfall since the 1970’s. Little Rock Arkansas, receives 6 years’ worth of snow in a week.

Northern hemisphere snow mass jumps to 700 Gigatonnes above the 1982 to 2012 average and the Arctic sea ice sees exponential gains.

Slovenia suffers the coldest April temperature in history. Belgrade breaks all-time snow record.

Right now, Europe is experiencing a period of extreme cold. Maps released by the UK Met Office show that everywhere from the south coast to the north east of England are covered in white. In Ireland, Met Eireann warned that ice and freezing frost are on the way forecasting cooler days and chilly nights. Similar weather is being experienced in the USA.

In the southern hemisphere, the media has been pushing higher temperatures in Australia and New Zealand. In 2009 I was walking around Melbourne in a temperature of 45 deg C. Temperatures in the 40’s are common in parts of Australia in the summer. High temperatures in various spots does not mean global warming. Global means a warming all over. In many parts of NZ this summer for example, temperatures were in the 20’s, while some locations had temperatures in the 30’s.

The question then is since the Younger Dryas happened without input from humans, and was caused by the slowing of the Gulf Stream, then if at present the Gulf stream is slowing and has been for some time, does that explain the unusual weather events? Does it also explain low temperatures in the north and perhaps warmer in the south? Humans have no input.

Some parts of the oceans are warming. In a previous article, I suggested this warming could be in part due to undersea volcanoes. As time goes on, more and more active undersea volcanoes are being discovered. What seems to be clear at this stage is that there are a large number of these. Most are just pushing out magma at very high temperatures. A few like the Tongan volcano are explosive. It now appears that the Gulf stream may be adding to this warming. Warm water from around the equator is not moving north like it used to. It is moving much more slowly. It then has a tendency to warm the oceanic waters south of the equator.

The oceans hold the most carbon dioxide - around 70 % of all carbon dioxide. Warm water holds less carbon dioxide than colder water. In addition, a plant found in less deep water in abundance has been emitting carbon dioxide as the water warms. It seems natural to think the present emissions of carbon dioxide are not caused by the meagre amount humans emit, but by emissions from the warming oceans.

The lockdowns around the world during the early stages of covid, gave support to this. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere is recorded at Mauna Loa. This is the curve they produce - the Keeling curve.

Now, during the early stages of covid, human activity slowed considerably. Less travel in vehicles including planes. Less industry. Many just confined to their homes. It has been estimated that carbon dioxide emissions fell by 7% during these times. That is a significant decrease in emissions. You would expect it to show on the Keeling curve if humans were responsible for the current emissions of carbon dioxide. But there is no change in the curve. No downward kink is evident. Carbon dioxide emissions just keep rising. This I believe gives some credence to the present rise in carbon dioxide coming from the oceans.

Below is the Keeling curve

There is no downwards kink in the graph. The major NZ lockdown was in 2020. Around the world, lockdowns were also occurring during this time. Carbon dioxide continued to rise in the same manner it had for some time. This suggests humans are not responsible for the outpouring of carbon dioxide we have seen over the past 40-50 years.

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.