I normally don’t blog on my own polls, or even mention them on Kiwiblog. But as this one is being discussed so much elsewhere, I thought it would be useful to share some thoughts.
First of all, yes it is a tough poll for National. When I ran the report on the data and saw what the computer spat out, I actually used an expletive. As someone who has been a member of the National Party for 40 years, I really hate it when one of my polls is bad for the party I support. But this is not the first time that has happened. I recall one evening when one of my polls in 2002 had National on 15%, and I think I reached for the vodka. Mind you, that poll wasn’t a public poll.
Secondly the poll shows the election is absolutely competitive, as every Curia poll since July last year has shown. No poll has had the winning group of parties on more than 63 seats – well within the margin of error. This poll has 61-59 to the CL. Last month it was 60-60. That is not a huge change. Next month it might be 61-59 to the CR. What is going to matter is how the economy goes over the next few months, how public services perform, and how well the parties campaign.
The poll has had many stories speculating on the party leadership. I generally do not comment or blog on these issues as I am not a member of caucus, and it can be unhelpful to have people associated with the party adding their 2c in. But as it has been such a loud conversation today, I will add in my 2c. This isn’t my view as a pollster, but as a political commentator and party member.
For my 2c I think National changing leader barely six months before the election would be a good way to guarantee a change of government, and would make a Labour-Green-Te Pati Maori Government much much more likely. The public wants MPs focused on making things better for them, not on themselves.
I’m actually very conservative when it comes to leadership changes. I didn’t think Bolger should have rolled McLay. I didn’t think English should have rolled Shipley. I didn’t think Brash should have rolled English. I didn’t think Muller should have rolled Bridges.
In politics, you sometimes get helpful poll results, and you sometimes get unhelpful results. Sometimes a poll can be taken during a particularly tough spell for a party, and sometimes during a good spell. People shouldn’t obsess over one poll result. What all the polls show is a very very close and competitive race for government.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
Secondly the poll shows the election is absolutely competitive, as every Curia poll since July last year has shown. No poll has had the winning group of parties on more than 63 seats – well within the margin of error. This poll has 61-59 to the CL. Last month it was 60-60. That is not a huge change. Next month it might be 61-59 to the CR. What is going to matter is how the economy goes over the next few months, how public services perform, and how well the parties campaign.
The poll has had many stories speculating on the party leadership. I generally do not comment or blog on these issues as I am not a member of caucus, and it can be unhelpful to have people associated with the party adding their 2c in. But as it has been such a loud conversation today, I will add in my 2c. This isn’t my view as a pollster, but as a political commentator and party member.
For my 2c I think National changing leader barely six months before the election would be a good way to guarantee a change of government, and would make a Labour-Green-Te Pati Maori Government much much more likely. The public wants MPs focused on making things better for them, not on themselves.
I’m actually very conservative when it comes to leadership changes. I didn’t think Bolger should have rolled McLay. I didn’t think English should have rolled Shipley. I didn’t think Brash should have rolled English. I didn’t think Muller should have rolled Bridges.
In politics, you sometimes get helpful poll results, and you sometimes get unhelpful results. Sometimes a poll can be taken during a particularly tough spell for a party, and sometimes during a good spell. People shouldn’t obsess over one poll result. What all the polls show is a very very close and competitive race for government.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
7 comments:
Imagine the scenario where labour greens and maori party win the election in 6 mths. My prediction is that nzers, even the champagne socialists, will have serious buyers remorse by week one. I think hipkins is weak. It is not out of tbe question that he would appoint someone like rawiri waititi as deputy pm, just to stick it to winston peters and david seymour. Imagine rawiri's speech. It will be all in te reo. Then in the english version he will say something like; well done aotearoa, we have taken our country back from the western colonists etc iI don't think people quite realise what is at stake.
Well, that's what happens when you sit on the fence and don't do what you indicated you'd do. Getting NZ 'back on track' included rather more than just the economy, and when that's in such a mess and there are other things beyond your control that impact it (like tarriffs & oil prices), you also need to take action on the other matters you indicated you'd address - like equality for all and a reversal of the 'maorification' of everything. National could turn its political fortunes around in a heartbeat but, no, it's leader steadfastly refuses to read the room.
A good move now would be to support the abolition of the Maori parliamentary seats but, again, that's a, 'no'. Our gutless appeaser of a 'leader' clearly wants our country divided, or can't and won't see the mischief at play.
Unless there's a significant change in stance, many of his colleagues will be looking for new jobs, and he might need to join Jacinda in looking for a new home offshore - along with many NZrs who will have had enough of the destruction caused by Labour (and its idiotic accomplices) and who will no longer see a future here.
David . What NZ has not forgotten is Luxon scuttling the Treaty Principles Bill without any stated reasoned thinking . The continued maorification of NZ language , government services and history.
The election promise of reigning in spending and idle bureaucracy has not emerged. The Seabed and Foreshore amended legislation has been discarded last month by the current Attorney Generals office and supports the public loss of the coast of NZ .
That is why Luxon has to take sick leave and allow Hon David Seymour to lead NZ to win the election as a Coalition.
Basil, it was scuttled because that is what was negotiated in the coalition agreement between his party and the party that got 8% of the vote share. What do you have against representative democracy? Do you want to end up like some 3rd world country like Venezuela?
Why tough? Facts are facts
Anon 12:27pm . I support representative democracy and I support political parties presenting their manifesto for voters to peruse and make their choice . National has reneged on most of their 2023 manifesto including the victory speech and their polling proves that.
I note the 8% that ACT received was required for the coalition to be formed .
ACT are well aware that National cannot articulate what was wrong with the TPB and at Waitangi the PM supported the exact TPB in his Waitangi contribution.
Clearly you do not understand the real position of corrupt and illegal business in Venezuela .
NZ does need a leader with real life experience and personality acceptable for all NZers.
Basil NZ doesn’t seem to have people with real world experience to choose from right now. Luxon is a rich CEO who is clearly disconnected from what life looks like for regular kiwis. Ditto Seymour and his deputy, each with about 2 years’ real world commercial experience before heading for the trough of bureaucracy and politics. We’re a bit stuck.
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