Chris Luxon will not get rolled, but he may quit. That would be a mistake of epic proportions.
What would drive me, if I was him, would be rational thought.
1) This election is not about personality, it's about economic management. On that the Government are tracking well.
2) The internal polling within the National Party is fine. It does not reflect the Curia poll that the media made so much of.
The unfortunate thing about Friday's pre-hyped release is it came at the same time Luxon had had a bad week on the war.
That week by the way, was nowhere near as bad as some made it out to be. But the two events came together for a good week-end headline.
3) This would be the bit that would focus my mind - it's only Hipkins.
Seriously, you're only lining up Labour as an opponent. On the economy. The people who wrecked the place two and a bit years ago are asking the voter to come back and do a bit more of it. You don’t believe me? Read Thomas Coughlan's piece with Barbara Edmonds.
4) Even if you take the poll seriously, which you shouldn’t. There is a one seat shift, so it's within a margin of error.
5) The economy will save you. You campaigned on a turnaround and the turnaround is real.
Given we are voting on economics, the National leader is not a deal-breaker.
If you are voting on interest rates and jobs, does Chris Bishop or Erica Stanford really change your view of your lot?
They are good people and good talents, but they aren't game-changers and they won't get you a job any more than Luxon will.
6) Having done the hard yards, why quit now? The prize is just down the road and with a second term perceptions change.
7) The coalition as an operation is a success. Three parties have, and do, work well together. It's MMP in action.
The alternative? Hipkins talking about a minority Government, a Green Party and extremism and a Māori Party that will not be back in anywhere near the numbers they have now. It's not a combo.
This must all sit heavily with Luxon. How could it not?
But that is what leadership is about. That is what you chased and bought into.
If you think you will fail you will automatically be successful.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
2) The internal polling within the National Party is fine. It does not reflect the Curia poll that the media made so much of.
The unfortunate thing about Friday's pre-hyped release is it came at the same time Luxon had had a bad week on the war.
That week by the way, was nowhere near as bad as some made it out to be. But the two events came together for a good week-end headline.
3) This would be the bit that would focus my mind - it's only Hipkins.
Seriously, you're only lining up Labour as an opponent. On the economy. The people who wrecked the place two and a bit years ago are asking the voter to come back and do a bit more of it. You don’t believe me? Read Thomas Coughlan's piece with Barbara Edmonds.
4) Even if you take the poll seriously, which you shouldn’t. There is a one seat shift, so it's within a margin of error.
5) The economy will save you. You campaigned on a turnaround and the turnaround is real.
Given we are voting on economics, the National leader is not a deal-breaker.
If you are voting on interest rates and jobs, does Chris Bishop or Erica Stanford really change your view of your lot?
They are good people and good talents, but they aren't game-changers and they won't get you a job any more than Luxon will.
6) Having done the hard yards, why quit now? The prize is just down the road and with a second term perceptions change.
7) The coalition as an operation is a success. Three parties have, and do, work well together. It's MMP in action.
The alternative? Hipkins talking about a minority Government, a Green Party and extremism and a Māori Party that will not be back in anywhere near the numbers they have now. It's not a combo.
This must all sit heavily with Luxon. How could it not?
But that is what leadership is about. That is what you chased and bought into.
If you think you will fail you will automatically be successful.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
6 comments:
Hosking is the problem, he has been championing “Steady as She Goes” while the adults wanted a real change maker. New Zealand has been crippled by the last lot and voted to give Luxon an opportunity to be brave. Unfortunately he falls into the same dithering category as Carney, Starmer and recently Albanese who has been up staged by Trump offering sanctuary to the touring Iranian woman’s soccer team in Aust.
I hope the NZ voter has the sense to see through the media attacks on the PM. I hope they see the last Government for the destructive lot they were, let alone their total incompetence. Hipkins has the media promoting him, photo's eating sausage rolls etc. But every portfolio under him a failure
I hope you are correct mike but unlike in england where the vast majority want the left gone by yesterday, here in nz our right leaning minor parties have less voters that the radical, batshit lunatic greens. What does that tell you about the nz voter? The best kiwis who would never vote green or labour are all overseas.
If Luxon is elected as the leader in 2026 - it will taken as a mandate for more of the same = more maorification
You say this election is about economic management.
Wrong.
It’s about whether pre-election promises have been kept.
National (and Luxon) undertook to reverse the Maorification epidemic sweeping the country.
It hasn’t. And it won’t.
For some reason Luxon seems intent on trying to appease as section of the population who will never vote National, while ignoring the undertakings given to the party’s voting base.
That’s what this election is about Mike.
Supporters are deserting National and will continue to do so unless they see action on those promises.
Clearly the race is 50/50. It won’t need many more desertions for National to lose it.
The people are clearing their throats.
They’re about to speak.
Anon 1.15
Your opening paragraphs are so accurate - exactly what Luxon and National refuse to acknowledge.
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