Colinxy: The Success Rate of Rehabilitation of Criminals

New Zealand Labour’s crime policy is built on a simple premise: rehabilitation works, and therefore the best way to reduce crime is to focus on treatment, programmes, and reducing reoffending. Labour rejects the “tough on crime” approach and frames rehabilitation as the humane, evidence‑based alternative.

The Green Party, particularly under figures such as Tāmatha Paul, goes even further. Their position aligns with international activist movements that call for defunding the police and abolishing prisons altogether. In that worldview, rehabilitation is not merely one tool among many; it is the only legitimate response to criminal offending.

But this raises a crucial question:

If rehabilitation is the centrepiece of Labour’s crime policy, how effective is it?

If rehabilitation works, Labour’s approach has merit. If it doesn’t, then Labour’s policy collapses under its own weight.

What the Evidence Shows

Rehabilitation programmes do have some success. No one disputes that. But the scale of that success is the issue.

Research from Victoria University of Wellington acknowledges that only 11 out of 100 offenders in certain rehabilitation contexts could be considered “successes.” Even if one debates the exact methodology, the figure is hardly a ringing endorsement.

An 11% success rate means:

• 89% do not change,
• 89% continue offending,
• 89% remain a threat to the public.

If rehabilitation is the backbone of Labour’s crime policy, then the backbone is fragile.

Why Rehabilitation Fails So Often

There are biological, developmental, and social factors that can make rehabilitation difficult. For example:

• prenatal alcohol exposure,
• neurological impairments,
• trauma,
• addiction.

But critics argue that the core problem is psychological, not biological: most criminals do not believe they have done anything wrong.

If an offender does not accept responsibility, does not feel guilt, and does not believe their behaviour is harmful, then:

• they see no reason to change,
• they resist treatment,
• They treat programmes as a box‑ticking exercise.

This is why rehabilitation often works best on the small minority who already want to change — and fails on the majority who don’t.

Other factors include:

• gang loyalty,
• criminal identity,
• peer reinforcement,
• lack of consequences,
• lack of internal motivation.

Rehabilitation is not magic. It requires offenders to participate in their own transformation — and most do not.

The Colonisation Argument

The Coalition of Marx — Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori — frequently attribute criminal behaviour to colonisation, structural oppression, or historical injustice. This is a standard Western‑Marxist framing: crime is not an individual choice but a product of systemic forces.

But critics argue that this explanation collapses when tested against real‑world evidence.

For example, Māori in Australia, living under the same colonial history but in a different policy environment, tend to perform significantly better across multiple social indicators. If colonisation alone explained crime, this would not be the case.

Thus, critics argue that the colonisation narrative is an ideological shield rather than an explanatory model.

What Happens If Labour Gets Its Way?

If Labour forms a government in November and pursues its rehabilitation‑first crime policy, New Zealanders will already know what the outcome looks like.

We only need to rewind the clock three years:

• High crime,
• High violent crime,
• Brazen youth offending,
• Retail crime surging,
• Police stretched thin,
• Communities feeling unsafe.

This was the natural consequence of a system that prioritised rehabilitation over consequences, theory over reality, and ideology over public safety.

If rehabilitation remains the centrepiece of Labour’s crime strategy, and if the Greens push even further toward abolitionist policies, then the public will almost certainly face a repeat of the same conditions.

Sources

• What Is Rehab Success Rate Of Violent Criminals
• Why “Rehabilitating” Repeat Criminal Offenders Often Fails
• What works now? A review and update of research evidence relevant to offender rehabilitation practices within the Department of Corrections » The Hub
• ‘Chaotic, sometimes dangerous places’—why successful rehab for remand prisoners will be hard to achieve | News | Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington

Colinxy regularly blogs at No Minister, This article was sourced HERE