This is the war between the US and Iran. It is still going on.
The biggest problem was always going to be the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz is not open.
In fact, there were tankers going through the other day in a shoulder that the US should be said should be safe, and guess what, they weren't.
Now, over the weekend we've had Leon Panetta, this is the US former US Defence Secretary.
He was also CIA Director under Obama.
He's said, yeah, look, it's one of those things. It's at risk now becoming another forever war in the Middle East, which is exactly what everybody doesn't want.
We've had these before, we've had many before, Iraq, Afghanistan, you name it.
He says the likelihood is this war is going to continue for another six months without being resolved.
And at the same time, you've got chaos at the Pentagon.
You've got Hegseth going after and firing people left, right, and centre, or senior military commanders leaving their posts.
And just imagine if you were one of the frontline soldiers here, if you were on some Navy frigate in the middle of the Gulf, although they're having a wee holiday in Thailand at the moment, of course, but if you were on a Navy frigate in the middle of the Gulf and you were reading updates on your phone or you're reading updates from command going, oh, he's gone now.
Oh, who's in charge here? And what exactly are we doing? Quite disconcerting.
And I think Leon Panetta makes that point very well.
This war is not going to end in a hurry, certainly not in the next six months.
Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.
9 comments:
We may not like it, but now it’s started America must win it, otherwise Iran gets to do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, simply by closing, or threatening to close Hormuz if it doesn’t get its way
History will record this war as a geopolitical watershed. Goodbye US global dominance and welcome to a new world order where non-Western powers thumb their noses at the US and do as they see fit, and strike back when struck. If we Europeans have the brains we were born with, we will dissociate ourselves from the US and come to our own arrangements with the likes of Iran. After all, we have relevant experience going back many centuries.
So the US have an expenditure in the war of $60B/yr very few deaths and an oil price up at $90/bbls.
The US produce 5 billion BOEs/yr thus they have $100B increase relative to everybody else.
The Straits are loosing all importance, pipelines etc. and Qatar who are sympathetic to Iran loose their LNG industry. Are we sure this is a bad thing.
Iran were building a bomb and intended to use it that is really much changed.
It will be looked at as the beginning of the end. The West, in general, prefers to support a despotic regime because of its hatred of one person, Trump. The useful idiots have won at last. History will be written by the winners and this will not be the enlightened society of old. So this war will be celebrated in the future as a success.
CXH nailed it.
It isn't much of a war though. Very few people have been killed in fighting, compared to what the Iranian Government has been doing to their own people.
A lot has happened
USAs grip of the Middle East has truely been broken
This is USAs Suez Canal moment
Iran is now a dominant regional player & USA has been shown to have no military staying power
Seeing MAGA fail so badly makes one wonder if Peters and Seymour will give up their Trump-lite approaches and go back to good proper kiwi behaviour, or will they stay the course of madness. Time will tell.
Perhaps the war doesn’t go anywhere because somebody doesn’t want it to go anywhere. Who benefits from a prolonged disruption of uncertainty in oil supply and prices?
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