An email from Sir John Key, which landed in the PoO in-tray this morning, obviously aims to whip up votes for a National Party which desperately needs support if Christopher Luxon is to remain Prime Minister.
The latest poll shows support for the Nats at a parlous level while businessman Harry Mowbray is encouraging vote-splitting, to discredit MMP and “show people how bad it is”.
That’s not calculated to do the Nats any favours.
In very tight elections like this one, Key said in an email which stated the obvious: “every single vote counts”.
Especially the party vote that Mowbray’s campaign is undermining.
Key urges:
Don’t leave the election result to chance.
Party Vote National.
Key then said:
I was afforded the privilege of winning three elections and having a real opportunity to make the changes that were required. I know change takes time.
Yes, it does.
That includes getting results from fiscal policy and turning Budget deficits into surpluses.
Key says:
Chris Luxon and his National team have started well. They’ve got some good results, including getting on top of wasteful spending and getting us back to surplus.
Hmm.
Perhaps that’s an unfortunately written sentence, and Key intended to say no more than that the National team (without giving any credit to coalition partners) are getting on top of wasteful spending on the way to getting us back to surplus.
But to set the record straight, the Luxon government’s results do not yet include getting us back to surplus.
The Government is not forecast to return to a budget operating surplus until the 2028/29 fiscal year.
The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) 2026, released last month, has projected a surplus of about $4 billion.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis, whose future in the job is very much dependent on a much stronger party vote for National than the polls portend, mentioned the surplus a month ago:
Today’s pre-election update forecasts healthy economic growth and a distinct improvement in the government’s books, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.
“I’m pleased that New Zealanders’ hard work, resilience and adaptability through tough economic times is bearing fruit.
“Today’s numbers show that the deficit in the year ending July this year was $3.4 billion smaller than forecast in the Budget in May, reflecting stronger economic momentum.
Treasury’s forecasts also show:
We must wait for the surplus.
“Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update shows the operating balance deficit shrinking from the $11.4 billion forecast at the Budget to $6.8 billion this financial year and to less than $1 billion next year.
“Over the following three years the surplus is forecast to grow from $4 billion to almost $12 billion.”
A stronger fiscal position cannot be taken for granted and treated as a green light to open the chequebook, Willis said
“Kiwis know from bitter experience that things can always change and global instability is not going away.”
Indeed.
Key’s email was followed an hour or so later by one from Julian Paul, President of New Zealand First.
He was drawing attention to a plea previously made by Deputy Leader Shane Jones in an email labelled “You can’t run an economy on fairy dust and clipboards”.
Jones colourfully mentioned:
In very tight elections like this one, Key said in an email which stated the obvious: “every single vote counts”.
Especially the party vote that Mowbray’s campaign is undermining.
Key urges:
Don’t leave the election result to chance.
Party Vote National.
Key then said:
I was afforded the privilege of winning three elections and having a real opportunity to make the changes that were required. I know change takes time.
Yes, it does.
That includes getting results from fiscal policy and turning Budget deficits into surpluses.
Key says:
Chris Luxon and his National team have started well. They’ve got some good results, including getting on top of wasteful spending and getting us back to surplus.
Hmm.
Perhaps that’s an unfortunately written sentence, and Key intended to say no more than that the National team (without giving any credit to coalition partners) are getting on top of wasteful spending on the way to getting us back to surplus.
But to set the record straight, the Luxon government’s results do not yet include getting us back to surplus.
The Government is not forecast to return to a budget operating surplus until the 2028/29 fiscal year.
The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) 2026, released last month, has projected a surplus of about $4 billion.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis, whose future in the job is very much dependent on a much stronger party vote for National than the polls portend, mentioned the surplus a month ago:
Economy strengthening, books getting better
Today’s pre-election update forecasts healthy economic growth and a distinct improvement in the government’s books, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.
“I’m pleased that New Zealanders’ hard work, resilience and adaptability through tough economic times is bearing fruit.
“Today’s numbers show that the deficit in the year ending July this year was $3.4 billion smaller than forecast in the Budget in May, reflecting stronger economic momentum.
Treasury’s forecasts also show:
- significantly smaller deficits this year and next year
- bigger surpluses in the following years
- less debt
- lower debt servicing costs
- the economy growing at an average of 2.6 per cent
- 220,000 more jobs being created; and
- wages rising faster than prices.
We must wait for the surplus.
“Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update shows the operating balance deficit shrinking from the $11.4 billion forecast at the Budget to $6.8 billion this financial year and to less than $1 billion next year.
“Over the following three years the surplus is forecast to grow from $4 billion to almost $12 billion.”
A stronger fiscal position cannot be taken for granted and treated as a green light to open the chequebook, Willis said
“Kiwis know from bitter experience that things can always change and global instability is not going away.”
Indeed.
Key’s email was followed an hour or so later by one from Julian Paul, President of New Zealand First.
He was drawing attention to a plea previously made by Deputy Leader Shane Jones in an email labelled “You can’t run an economy on fairy dust and clipboards”.
Jones colourfully mentioned:
- The tea towel wearers and gang groupies on the left, who “have a vision for New Zealand that sees economic growth as a regrettable side effect of human existence. They want to strangle growth, prevent prosperity, and effectively drive our young people off overseas to lands where they are rewarded for their efforts”.
- The lanyard-wearers in the capital, who “seem to think prosperity materialises from government strategy documents and endless hui”.
- The clipboard brigade, who need to learn wealth has to be created. “Someone has to grow the food, catch the fish, dig the minerals, build the factories, manufacture the goods, and get our exports onto ships”.
- Chloe Swarbrick and her merry band of tree huggers, who think it is better for the environment if we ship in coal rather than dig it up.
New Zealand First has set out an ambition to double the size of our economy by 2050. And we are quite aware that is going to require an altogether different attitude to productive enterprise than the one which has prevailed in this country for far too long.
But an email from the Taxpayers’ Union noted that neither Opportunity nor New Zealand First have released a fiscal plan (although “maybe even no fiscal plan is better than the fantasy work the Greens released this week, with 89 cents in every dollar they promise to spend remaining unfunded.”)
The press statement, announcing the latest results from the weekly Bribe-O-Meter, noted:
“New Zealand First are going for the sprint finish, increasing their new spending total by 80 percent, or more than $20,000 per household, within the space of just seven days.”
The implications for the path to a Budget surplus are somewhat bothersome.
Bob Edlin is a veteran journalist and editor for the Point of Order blog HERE.
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