NZCPR Newsletter: Defining Election Issues

Voting for the 2026 election has started. Anyone living overseas can now vote. Within New Zealand, early voting starts on Monday. At the last election, over 60 percent of voters had already voted by Election Day.

So, with the left and right blocs neck and neck in the polls, let’s look at five defining issues as we head towards November 7.

Centre-right versus centre-left bloc

At this election, the choice between governments is clear: on one side is the established centre‑right Coalition of National, ACT and New Zealand First, and on the other, a new centre‑left bloc of Labour, the Greens, the Maori Party, and the Opportunity Party. 

New Zealanders need to understand what’s truly at stake at Election 2026.

A government made up of Labour, the Greens, the Maori Party, and TOP would unleash a radical ideological agenda unlike anything New Zealand has seen before: higher taxes, heavier regulation, aggressive climate mandates, expanded welfare dependency, and punitive measures against enterprise — all layered on top of constitutional change, strengthened gang influence, and an education system once again used to indoctrinate children instead of educating them. Achievement would be penalised, wealth redistributed, and the productive backbone of the nation hollowed out.

Every party of the left wants higher taxes.

Despite former Labour Prime Minister David Lange warning that a Capital Gains Tax is the sort of tax you introduce if you want to lose not just one election but the next three, Labour’s Chris Hipkins is again campaigning on a CGT. He claims his 28 percent tax on baches and investment property will not affect the family home, farms, shares, or other assets. But history shows that once such a tax is in place, it can easily be expanded to capture homes, farms, and everything else — which is why New Zealanders have consistently rejected every attempt to introduce a CGT.

And then there’s the Greens’ “hate‑the‑rich” campaign, built on the corrosive ideology that every person’s success comes at someone else’s expense: a top income tax rate of 45 percent, a 2.5 percent wealth tax, a 33 percent inheritance tax, an extension of the bright‑line test from 2 to 10 years, the removal of tax deductibility on investment property, a rise in company tax to 33 percent, and a 5 percent withholding tax on offshore profits.

The Maori Party also targets success, demanding a top tax rate of 48 percent, a 2.5 percent wealth tax, company tax at 33 percent, a 5 percent foreign company tax, a 33 percent land‑banking tax, a 2 percent “batch and vacant home” tax, and a 5 percent stamp duty.

TOP’s wealth‑destruction policy, which would cost households and farmers tens of thousands of dollars every year irrespective of their ability to pay, centres on a land tax of 1.75 percent on the family home and 0.5 percent on farms.

While Labour claims their capital gains tax will be the only new tax introduced if they win the election, the reality is they will not win alone. They will have radical partners demanding billion‑dollar spending commitments that can only be funded by massive tax increases. National’s prediction of “Nine new taxes under Labour” may well become the reality.

And when it comes to spending, the left-bloc’s plans are eye-watering: Labour’s pledges amount to $34 billion ($16,000 per household), TOP is promising $229 billion ($110,000 per household), the Greens $254 billion ($122,000 per household), while the Maori Party’s multi‑billion‑dollar promises are too vague to cost.

But, while tax and spending plans provide a signal of how extreme a government of these parties would be, the most revealing indicator is their judgement. 

The recent decision by the Green and Maori parties to campaign for votes at the Mongrel Mob gang headquarters should come as a warning: these are parties that want to abolish prisons, sentence murderers to home detention, and allow gang‑patches to once again be used to intimidate the public. Labour’s partners — who will collectively hold as many, if not more, seats – insist the answer to violent crime is tikanga‑based Treaty‑centred justice, with TOP leaning the same way.

This Mongrel Mob visit is a clear signal of how the left plans to reshape New Zealand.

In stark contrast, the three‑party centre-right bloc has a proven record of working together to restore stability and fiscal discipline.

A renewed National, ACT, New Zealand First Coalition would shift their focus from undoing the damage created by Labour, to driving results: tightening public‑sector performance, boosting productivity and growth, deepening tax relief, and ensuring every dollar of spending brings results. Crime would continue to fall as gangs face tougher consequences, the refocus of schools on achievement would accelerate, and the race-based approach within public institutions would be replaced by need, merit, and equal citizenship.

Strategic Voting

Electoral Commission data shows that at the last election over a third of voters split their vote by giving their party vote to one party and their electorate vote to a candidate from another: 72 percent of ACT, 72 percent of New Zealand First, 60 percent of the Greens, 42 percent of the Maori Party, 22 percent of Labour, and just 16 percent of National.

This time around, the numbers are expected to grow as the Maori Party has adopted a deliberate vote splitting strategy for Election 2026 in the hope of creating a large-enough overhang in Parliament to change the government.

And their strategy of asking supporters to vote for Maori Party candidates while giving their party vote to Labour or the Greens, seems to be working. Polling indicates they may win up to five of the seven Maori seats, potentially creating a 5-seat overhang in Parliament – and raising the threshold required to win the election to 63 seats.

The question is, what should the centre-right do in response?

Firstly, to maximise the number of electorate seats held by the Coalition, ACT and New Zealand First supporters should vote for the National candidate in electorates where their votes would otherwise be wasted. That could help National secure 37 or more electorate seats in Parliament.

According to modelling by The Initiative, when it comes to the party vote, unless National’s party vote rises above 32 percent, all of their party votes are likely to be wasted – they will not deliver a single list MP.

If National supporters vote strategically, however, by voting for their National candidate and supporting ACT or New Zealand First with their party vote, they would be proactively countering the Maori Party’s overhang strategy and strengthening the chance of a Coalition win.

In other words, for those seeking the return of the current Coalition, an electorate vote for National, and a party vote for ACT or New Zealand First, will ensure no centre-right votes are wasted.

Kingmaker

With journalists aligned to a radical union campaigning to “change the government”, the media’s drive to promote TOP as a “kingmaker” has been relentless. But their claim TOP is centrist is a lie – behind their moderate branding sits such a dangerous constitutional agenda that the Prime Minister is right to rule them out of the Coalition.

TOP’s fourth-ranked candidate, Dr Kayla Kingdon‑Bebb, co‑authored Labour’s radical He Puapua blueprint for tribal rule, and TOP wants to repeal the Coalition’s Marine and Coastal Area Act amendments — clearing the way for Maori tribes to gain control of New Zealand’s entire coastline.

Even TOP’s founder Gareth Morgan is critical: “Opportunity’s land tax is a regressive wealth tax much like those proposed by Labour and the Greens. This alone, highlights Opportunity’s policy being far more left than right wing. Wealth taxes are hugely dangerous to living standards. There’s no way Opportunity can appeal to centre right voters with its selective wealth tax.”

He predicts: “For centre-right voters the reason to support Opportunity will fall away quickly once the allure of its refreshingly telegenic leadership passes.”

TOP’s support is falling – as voters realise how extreme they are. If it dips under 5 percent, all votes for TOP will be wasted.

Climate Change

With the cost‑of‑living crisis dominating this election, politicians prefer to blame supermarkets for soaring food prices instead of acknowledging the impact of extremist climate ideology. The Emissions Trading Scheme, Net Zero, and Labour’s oil and gas ban have all driven up the cost of energy and transport, hitting farmers, fertiliser producers, food processors, freight operators, and, ultimately, households.

Politicians should be focussing on the damage their crippling climate policies are causing – instead of threatening long-established businesses.

To understand just how misconceived these policies are, this week’s NZCPR Guest Commentator, Professor Emeritus Geoff Duffy of the University of Auckland – a specialist in climate thermodynamics – explains the scientific reality that governments continue to ignore:

“Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas by far — about 30 times higher in concentration than the total of ALL other greenhouse gases combined. After water vapour, the next two significant gases are carbon dioxide at 0.042% and methane at 0.0002%, which are mostly naturally produced in relatively small quantities.

“Unfortunately, governments around the world have wrongly focussed on carbon dioxide and methane as the main causes of climate change. Many are trying to cut them back through zero-carbon policies or by eliminating the combustion of coal, natural gas, and oil. This is totally misguided and has resulted in flawed policies, false media statements, and mass hysteria with protest organisers using ill‑informed school children as puppets.”

Only two parties are prepared to challenge the political establishment’s “misguided” climate obsession. 

ACT proposes scrapping Net Zero, repealing the Zero Carbon Act, and, if our commitments cannot be made realistic, pulling New Zealand out of the Paris Agreement.

New Zealand First also wants New Zealand to withdraw from Paris.

National, however, remains committed to “staying in Paris”, tightening emissions targets, and expanding investment in methane‑reduction technologies – in spite of consumers growing increasingly wary of genetically modified content in food.

Across the left‑bloc, every party remains firmly committed to the Paris Agreement, the Zero‑Carbon Act, and the ban on oil and gas exploration. While Labour has paused plans for agricultural emissions pricing, the far tougher penalties on farmers wanted by the Greens, the Maori Party, and TOP would drive down livestock numbers and undermine our key export industries in dairy, meat, and wool.

To view the summary of 2026 Climate Policies compiled for NZCPR readers, please click HERE.

Democracy versus Tribal Authority

When it comes to governance, the 2026 election presents New Zealanders with a clear choice. On one side are parties committed to democracy and parliamentary sovereignty while on the other are parties advancing tribal control.

National, ACT and NZ First prioritise equal citizenship and one law for all. They oppose the co-governance of public services and want undefined Treaty principles removed from legislation. While they support completing historic Treaty settlements, both ACT and NZ First want the Waitangi Tribunal abolished and a referendum held on the Maori seats. ACT wants to go further to restrict judicial activism, limit the use of tikanga in the courts, and remove race‑based obligations from the public service.

Labour would resume He Puapua, support ongoing Treaty partnerships and the co-governance of public services, restore Treaty obligations in education, introduce stronger iwi involvement in resource management, and maintain the power of the Waitangi Tribunal.

The Greens, the Maori Party and TOP support constitutional transformation, the opening of Treaty claims on private land, binding Waitangi Tribunal powers, expanded tikanga-based justice, increasing co-governance across the State sector, and further entrenching the United Nations Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

*To see the summary of 2026 Maori and Treaty policies compiled for NZCPR readers, please click HERE.

Finally…

The extremism and activism now driving the political left is taking New Zealand into uncharted territory. Calling this a defining election is a complete understatement — the stakes are far higher. 

Seeking control of the Treasury benches is a radicalised left-wing alliance determined to transform the country’s institutions, economy, and constitutional foundations, while opposing it is an experienced centre-right Coalition committed to stability, democratic accountability, and national prosperity.

That’s the reality of Election 2026: a choice between a left‑bloc intent on reshaping New Zealand, or a right‑bloc focused on restoring it.

Let’s hope voters make the right choice!

*The direct link to the NZCPR Political Party Climate Policy 2026 summary is 
https://www.nzcpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NZCPR-POLITICAL-PARTY-CLIMATE-POLICY-2026-SUMMARY.pdf

Please note: To register for our free weekly newsletter please click HERE.

THIS WEEK’S POLL ASKS:

 * Do you believe a Labour‑led government with the Greens, the Maori Party, and TOP would be harmful to New Zealand? 

 

Dr Muriel Newman established the New Zealand Centre for Political Research as a public policy think tank in 2005 after nine years as a Member of Parliament. The NZCPR website is HERE. We also run this Breaking Views Blog and our NZCPR Facebook Group HERE.