Guest Post: Who’s in charge of running the country if coalition negotiations drag on?

Guest Post - Neil Sands on Law News

As the government prepares to enter the official caretaker period on November 7, Professor Philip Joseph KC ponders what he calls the $64,000 question – what happens if a disgruntled leader goes rogue and ignores the caretaker convention setting out the orderly transition of power in New Zealand’s democracy?

“We just don’t know how the situation would unfold,” Joseph, a legal academic at the University of Canterbury specialising in constitutional law, told LawNews. “It’s never happened, that’s the first point to make.

Andrew Dickens: A Government before Christmas is unlikely

The other day Christopher Luxon sent conniptions through the commentariat by saying we'll be lucky to have a Government by Christmas.

I'm not surprised.

So we have an election on November 7th. Writ day is December 3rd – that's the deadline for all the votes to be counted.

Benjamin Macintyre: Dutch Courage

Are you suffering from post-election fatigue? Did you feel the whole campaign was overly long and protracted, and a little boring?

And then the coalition negotiations – they dragged and dragged. It took so long that the planned mini-budget before Christmas will probably only contain our new government’s holiday plans.

Jack Tame: It's A Done Deal

We can dispute when the counter should have started – election night or the official results – but I suspect the waiting game will soon be forgotten as the new government is sworn in and the house sits in urgency.

At first blush, I actually think the biggest winner of the three parties is National. Perhaps you’d expect nothing less from the highest-polling party, but there’s no doubt Christopher Luxon and his team were negotiating with a couple of wily, smart operators. And at the conclusion of negotiations, almost all of National’s policies remain on the table. They haven’t had to sacrifice their babies.

Heather du Plessis-Allan: It would be insulting to David Seymour if he isn't given the Deputy PM role

I think David Seymour has reason to be pretty salty if he isn't given the Deputy Prime Minister’s job.

This is not really about whether the job is really a job or whether it's just ceremonial.

The fact is- it is a title. And that title implies seniority, it means whoever gets the Deputy Prime Minister role is the second most senior person in the Government.

Kate Hawkesby: Nicola Willis looks like the most mature of them all

So has the anticipation of this government been greater than the event itself?  

Will it be under whelming when we finally see the state of it?  

Did we just build it up as this huge thing full of controversy and twists and turns, when in fact it was just a boring longer than expected meeting of negotiating endless minutiae?  

Kate Hawkesby: Seymour for Deputy PM?

I don’t begrudge David Seymour tipping his hat into the ring for Deputy PM.  

Many would argue it’s a relatively inconsequential role - it doesn’t mean much. I mean most of last term we couldn’t remember who was deputy leader or deputy PM: Kelvin Davis or Carmel Sepuloni. It didn’t really matter, no one really cared.  

But it does carry gravitas. There is something about the title which carries weight – and of course the obvious additional bonus of stepping into the PM’s shoes when they're out of the country. So you can’t argue it doesn’t carry some responsibility too. And Seymour’s argument is fair I reckon. Proportionality. He’s arguing that the role makes sense for him given they’ve got the second-largest government party, so he says, the second-biggest role makes sense. He thinks that’s the clear case for him to be Deputy PM. 

Graeme Edgeler: As Long as It Takes, or There are No Hard Deadlines

Government-formation negotiations are ongoing between National, Act and New Zealand First. We do not know how long these will take. Neither it seems, do they.

Importantly, there are fundamentally no hard deadlines on government formation negotiations in New Zealand. It will take as long as it takes. I’ll start by saying that some of the hypotheticals I talk about here are ridiculously unlikely. National, Act and New Zealand First will almost certainly either come to an agreement, or realise they cannot, well before we reach the ones I mention at the end. The point I am making is well-established by them however: there really are no hard deadlines. There is no date by which, if negotiations haven’t resolved anything, there must be a fresh election. Unless they’re still going in 2026, of course, when we’ll need an election anyway.

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Prepare for a political battle of the egos

Again, it's looking pretty positive on the formation of Government today.

Here's the update for the day- The policy work is now actually done, all three parties have now reached agreement on the policy agenda for the next three years.

This seems like a minor step forward from yesterday, because yesterday ACT and NZ First had reached agreement with National.

Today, ACT and NZ First have signed off on each others’ agreements. So minor- but significant.

Kate Hawkesby: " I'm As Impatient As The Next Guy"

I’m as impatient as the next guy but can we cut Luxon some slack here? He’s dealing with Winston. He’s dealing with two parties, both deeply ambitious, principled and headstrong, and one of them has Winston at the helm. 

That makes this entire negotiation of talks that he’s enduring.. all the more harder I reckon. I also don’t buy into the media’s timeline. This is not one of the longest negotiations on earth. Not by a long shot. And I don’t believe it started the day we counted votes either. That’s unfair to start the clock from there. 

Point of Order: Co-Deputy Leaders?

Luxon could suggest we have co-deputy prime ministers, if that’s an issue for ACT and NZ First – but tossing a coin is another idea

While Point of Order waits for a new bunch of ministers to be appointed and start posting their announcements, proclamations and speeches on the government’s official website, we are keeping an eye on media reports on coalition negotiations.

Point of Order: Buzz from the Beehive - 16/11/23

While awaiting agreement on new government, MFAT bosses jump the gun (and peeve PSA) by muting the use of te reo

There’s no news on the government’s official website again today – not since November 10, when Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Christoper Luxon agreed that caretaker government arrangements be extended.

But RNZ reports Luxon as saying negotiations to form a government are in the final stages.

John MacDonald: Luxon and Seymour deserve better. We do too

How cringing are these coalition negotiations getting?

I’m very tempted to send Christopher Luxon a text message saying ‘you reap what you sow mate’.

And I would do that, if I had his number. But then he probably wouldn’t reply because he might not believe it’s actually from me.

Robert MacCulloch: Coalition talks: On economics, Luxon is arguing about nothing with Winston Peters & David Seymour

As coalition negotiations drag on, it has been left to speculation about what disagreements are taking place. They cannot be on economic issues. The differences in terms of finance-related policies between National, ACT and NZ First are trivial and inconsequential. It cannot be that the nation doesn't have a new government due to sticking points over matters like National's foreign buyer tax which has been featuring prominently in the mainstream media, nor for that matter any other tax or spending policy. For example, the foreign-buyer tax would only raise around 0.1% of GDP.

In terms of other tax policies, here is one of NZ Firsts "founding principles":

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Coalition talks are hurting Luxon's reputation

It's starting to get a bit awkward with how long these coalition negotiations are taking, especially now that Chris Luxon’s warned us we might not get a deal until the end of this week.

These talks are about to become the second longest set of coalition talks in the history of MMP.

Former Green Party MP Gareth Hughes went back through all of the elections and counted how long it took from each election date to the end of the coalition talks.

Peter Williams: The Return of the Rant

To slightly amend Schwarzenegger’s Terminator: “I’m back.”

To be honest, this series of modest little essays and opinion pieces has been in abeyance for far longer than anticipated.

There have been numerous attempts in the last month or so to commit some thoughts to keyboard during my travels in Europe but they always fell prey to either a pressing social engagement - usually drinks at 5pm - or another day’s travel or, towards the end of the trip, a somewhat debilitating flu which deprived me of both energy and cogent thought.

Anyway that is all behind me. I’m now back in the world’s most glorious environment – Central Otago – and returning to full health so there’s not much wrong with the world.

Peter Wilson: The Week in Politics - Coalition negotiations could be near the endgame

After a slow start, the coalition negotiations may be approaching the point where an announcement is imminent, while Chris Hipkins keeps his job as Labour leader and could face another tax policy conundrum.

The media was really fizzing on Saturday after the final election results were announced the previous day.

Christopher Luxon said he was "going to get cracking", there were reports that he was about to "hit the phones" and negotiate coalition deals with ACT and NZ First.

Kate Hawkesby: Maybe Winston's experience will be a good thing

So, we now know Winston’s in the mix in a real and tangible way. He’s needed.  

We can thank special votes for that.  

So, I’m trying to look for positives, and trust me, it’s not easy - but I found one.  

He at least has institutional knowledge of how parliament works, what being a politician means, and how the place functions.  

That’s a benefit to Luxon because that’s more than he’s got. 

Peter Wilson: The Week in Politics - 'Eerie silence' surrounds coalition negotiations

Negotiations to form a new government between National, ACT and NZ First were taking place this week - in Auckland at an unknown venue and with very little known about what was going on between the three parties.

Newshub's Lloyd Burr said incoming prime minister Christopher Luxon was attempting to control media coverage, and the best way to do that was to hold them in a city without a political press gallery.

After previous MMP elections, negotiations have been mostly held in Parliament.

Rob Ogilvie: Why just Kingmaker? Why not King?

Like many I lazily assumed National had it in the bag until their recent press conferences.  Then the faces showed they have had their “Oh Sh-t” moment.  To woo the elusive Mr Peters Mr English has already told David Seymour to scram, and both Ms Bennett (National) and Mr Davis (Labour) have offered to step aside from deputy leadership. Mr Joyce has said he really can be best friends, honest.  Both parties have made it clear that cherished policies are up for grabs.  Have whatever cabinet seats you like.  And that is just their opening positions.  The negotiations apparently haven’t even started.

The art and science of negotiation means Winston could be our next PM, or at least a newly constructed position more influential than Deputy PM.  If he really wants the job.