JC: She’s a Must to Avoid

Many reading this will be old enough to remember the Herman’s Hermits song, “She’s a Must to Avoid”. That is how the leader of the Opportunity Party, Qiulae Wong, presented in last weekend’s Q+A interview with Jack Tame. Mr Tame, who does not often inspire me, deserves credit for pushing to get to the bottom of what Opportunity stands for. This was no easy task, as Wong has an unflappable streak, where every criticism or query is met with a smile and is seamlessly brushed away. The interviewer therefore has to dig deep and press for answers that the audience wants. Tame’s ‘dog with a bone’ technique often frustrates me, but on this occasion it was necessary.

Mike's Minute: Why all the angst around the Opportunity Party?

I have been surprised, and not surprised, by two aspects of the Opportunity Party.

1) I'm not surprised by the media's fascination,

2) I am surprised at the amount of angst shown by people increasingly alarmed at the prospect they may be heading for Parliament and some sort of influence.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Has Luxon made a mistake ruling out Opportunity?

You know what? I thought the Prime Minister was right to rule out working with Opportunity, until that One News-Verian poll. Now, I think he might have made a mistake.

I'm not 100 percent sure, but I'm starting to lean towards this being an error.

Bruce Cotterill: The risk behind Opportunity Party’s rapid rise in the polls

There once was a young woman. She had long dark hair and a nice smile. She was a politician. She came out of nowhere. She was bright and charismatic, communicated well, and the media adored her. The people adored her too, despite not knowing that much about her or the team around her.

She became our Prime Minister, with promises of kindness, more houses and less poverty.

Chris Lynch: Opportunity Party wanted to raise youth justice age to 25....

Opportunity Party wanted to raise youth justice age to 25, now can’t say what the limit should be

The Opportunity Party has scrubbed the age of 25 from a policy proposing a major expansion of New Zealand’s youth justice system.

An archived version of the party’s “Smart on Crime” policy, captured on March 5, explicitly promised to “raise the age of the youth court jurisdiction to 25, in line with developmental science”.

Peter Dunne: Opportunity Party Poaching National Voters

Christopher Luxon's ruling out any possibility of National working with the Opportunity Party after the election is not nearly as emphatic as it sounds.

This time three years ago Luxon was saying his party's strong preference was not to have to work with New Zealand First after the 2023 election, only to end up going into coalition together a couple of months later. In a similar vein, ACT's David Seymour originally specifically ruled out ever sitting around the Cabinet table with New Zealand First Ministers, only to join the post-election coalition because of the perceived greater good of keeping Labour out of office.

Spaniard: Opportunity Party: what of our conservation estate?

At present, New Zealanders have equal stakes in our open-access public conservation estate … Those settings would be ended by the work Kingdon-Bebb fronted for the Options Development Group. Kiwis’ equality in the public conservation sphere, certainty of access, and the science-driven focus on nature’s good health would be over.

Ryan Bridge: The Opportunity Party needs more time to hit five percent this election

I don't think Opportunity will hit five percent this election.

It's fun to flirt, people are frustrated, but I was there when Colin Craig got close and failed, saw Gareth Morgan then Geoff Simmons have a crack and fail.

I encourage anyone listening to have a look at their policies, do the maths and figure out for themselves how much worse, or better off, you'll be.

John McLean: Opportunity......

But for what? Analysis of an ascendant political party

New Zealand’s latest political poll, a 1 News-Verian poll conducted from 13 to 17 June, has The Opportunity Party at 4.6% of the popular vote. Opportunity is trending upwards. If the trend continues, Opportunity will get over the 5% threshold for representation in Parliament and would probably form part of NZ’s next Government.

Peter Dunne: The Opportunity Party

Since 1996 no new party has entered Parliament without either a sitting or former MP leading it. The Conservative Party in 2014 came close to doing so, scoring about 4% of the party vote, but ultimately failed and never attained that level of support again.

With some opinion polls currently suggesting the Opportunity Party is inching closer to the cusp of the 5% threshold that sobering reality remains a daunting challenge. As with the Conservative Party and other small parties before them, potential voters will have to be persuaded that the Opportunity Party can make a difference, and that therefore a vote for it would not be wasted.

Ani O'Brien: The media isn't reporting on TOP's rise, they are creating it

How the media creates political momentum

Political momentum is one of the most powerful forces in politics. Voters are heavily influenced by ‘social proof’ which is the psychological phenomenon where people copy the actions of others to validate their own behaviour. People want to support parties that appear viable and relevant. Therefore, a party that is constantly discussed in the media acquires a kind of legitimacy simply through repetition. People hear its leader interviewed, see its policies analysed, watch journalists speculate about its prospects, and begin to regard it as a serious political force. This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where media attention generates awareness, awareness generates support (or opposition), support (or opposition) generates further media attention, and the party gains momentum.

Mike's Minute: Can the Opportunity Party succeed?

Well, welcome back Opportunity. I think I have that right.

Opportunity is the former "The Opportunities Party". Now it's just "The Opportunity Party".

It has a new leader and a new tax policy. They have been looking for a leader for ages and they even advertised.

None of this is a good sign.