Oliver Hartwich: Europe's impossible nuclear option

In a previous column I discussed the precarious state of European security in light of the rising threat of Russia and the potential decline of US involvement (Europe’s precarious security could invite Putin to expand war, 26 January 2024).

Today, I will analyse a potential way for Europe to organise its own security: the development of a European nuclear shield.

Oliver Hartwich: How Wellington has become a NZ tragicomedy

I would not usually devote a column for The Australian to problems with a New Zealand local council.

Nevertheless, the city in question is the capital, so I will make an exception. Also, Wellington’s problems are indicative of the state of New Zealand’s local government more generally.

A decade ago, in 2013, then-Prime Minister John Key declared Wellington a “dying city.” It was controversial enough that Key had to retract his statement shortly afterwards. Today, however, many New Zealanders might agree with Key.

Oliver Hartwich: Europe's precarious security could invite Putin to expand war

Happy new years do not start like this. The first few weeks of 2024 served as a reminder that the geopolitical situation is at its most dangerous in decades. As if we needed reminding.

Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, warned last week that NATO must prepare for war with Russia within 20 years.

Oliver Hartwich: The right step - New Zealand's engagement in the Middle East

The Government’s decision to deploy defence force personnel to the Middle East marks a significant, yet reasonable, shift in its foreign policy. Far from undermining our long-held independence stance, this move reaffirms New Zealand’s commitment to democratic values and global security.

Historically, New Zealand has prided itself on an independent foreign policy that navigates the complex geopolitical landscape with a nuanced and principled approach.

Oliver Hartwich: A year of new beginnings

As 2023 draws to a close, we reflect on a transformative year for New Zealand’s political scene.

The election ended Labour’s six-year reign and ushered in a new three-party coalition government under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

The time since the election has been marked by a sense of change as the new government has taken shape. The New Zealand Initiative has engaged with this opportunity for change, providing thoughtful analysis and promoting policies that benefit all New Zealanders.

Oliver Hartwich: While the west dithers, Russia steams ahead

As 2023 draws to an end, it is time for a stocktake on the most significant geopolitical issue of the past couple of years: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At first, this unprovoked attack seemed to trigger a revival of Western unity and determination. There was a noticeable optimism that the West might regain its lost strength. I wrote about it then (The West is back, 22 March 2021).

Oliver Hartwich: It's happy hour for economists in NZ now

Economics enjoys the reputation of being the “dismal science”. And yes, there is hardly a policy in which economists cannot find a flaw.

To a degree, this is understandable. When you have studied economics, the world around you looks like a madhouse. All too many government policies, often introduced with laudable goals, simply do not make sense.

Oliver Hartwich: Reversing Ardern's policies as easy as unscrambling an egg

When it comes to politics, it is often easier to create new policies than to dismantle existing ones.

Returning a scrambled egg to its original state would be an apt metaphor for the challenge facing Prime Minister Chris Luxon’s newly-formed coalition government in New Zealand.

The administration is embarking on a complex journey to reverse a range of policies instituted by its predecessors. These policies include those relating to the Treaty of Waitangi, Māori and the Te Reo language.

Oliver Hartwich: David Seymour's regulation decimation could learn a thing or two from Iceland

In the rugged landscapes of Thingvellir National Park, just outside Iceland’s capital Reykjavik, lies a reminder of a simpler time in governance.

During a visit many years ago, I was struck not just by Thingvellir’s natural beauty but by its historical significance: Thingvellir was the site of Iceland’s parliament from the 10th to the 18th century.

It was a parliament unlike any we know today. Meetings were held outdoors, and the assembly convened only once a year.

Oliver Hartwich: Stark warning in creative misuse of covid funds

Writing about European affairs for a New Zealand audience may seem, at first glance, a bit of a strange pastime. What happens in European domestic politics rarely seems to matter down here.

Yet part of my motivation for this column is to elaborate parallels between Europe and New Zealand. The challenges we face are often similar, but our responses to them are usually not. That means there is much to compare.

Oliver Hartwich: Initiative applauds new coalition's clarity and reforms

The outcome of New Zealand’s recent coalition negotiations marks only the beginning of the next three years of government. But the principles and policies outlined in the agreements suggest the country now has a reformist administration ready to rebuild the economy, refine regulations, and expand choice in social services.

As a public policy think tank, The New Zealand Initiative welcomes the clarity around priorities like stimulating economic growth after recent disruptions and years of questionable policies.

Oliver Hartwich: How Luxon can drag NZ out of mediocrity

Everyone has a story: where they come from, what they believe in, what they strive for.

Such self-mythologies can have powerful effects when they are based on positive values. We form our identities through them. We may use them to motivate ourselves. In difficult times, they can provide comfort.

Oliver Hartwich: Reform or Transform?

We reserved this space in today’s newsletter to congratulate the new Government on taking office.

If we have to wait another week or two, then so be it. A Government’s legacy is defined by its accomplishments when it leaves office, not by what is written about it at the outset.

In history, good intentions count for nothing. It is achievements and results that matter.

Oliver Hartwich: Not ready to be ruled by AI, but maybe inspired

Last week, I spoke on a panel at Microsoft’s GovTech Futures conference in Wellington. The event brought together IT professionals and public servants. I was probably invited because someone knew I was a tech geek working in policy. Or maybe they just liked my accent.

Anyway, it was fun. Not least because the first question caught me off guard. The moderator asked me if AI could have helped this year’s coalition negotiations. What a great question!

Oliver Hartwich: Germany and Turkey a microcosm of western challenges

Turkish Presidential visits to Germany are seldom easy affairs. This has been especially so during the tenure of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Germany, with the largest Turkish population outside Turkey, has become centre stage for Erdoğan’s assertive foreign policy. Regardless of the duration of their stay in Germany, or indeed whether Germany is their birthplace, Erdoğan perceives the Turkish diaspora in Germany as part of his extended national constituency. And he treats it as such.

Oliver Hartwich: Never again is now

Over a month has passed since the conflict between Hamas and Israel escalated dramatically. The death toll of the 7 October massacre exceeds 1,400, marking this as the most severe episode of violence affecting Jewish people since the Holocaust. And Hamas still holds more than 240 hostages.

Understanding the full extent of such atrocities often takes time. We saw this following the attacks of September 11, the bombings in Madrid and London, and the massacre in Christchurch. People usually need weeks, if not months, to process the enormity of such events.

Oliver Hartwich: Cutting Cabinet - Why New Zealand needs leaner government

New Zealand will soon have a new government following the final 2023 election results. It will comprise three parties: National, ACT, and New Zealand First. Like all new Governments, the parties promise a change of direction from the previous administration.

What will not change, however, is New Zealand’s unwieldy structure of ministerial portfolios.

Oliver Hartwich: The love language of politics - How to decode a coalition agreement

New Zealand is waiting – for better weather, the next Rugby World Cup, and the formation of our new Government. Not necessarily in that order, but with similar anticipation.

This is a challenging time for political commentators used to analysing even the smallest details of political life. The preliminary coalition talks are still under wraps, so there is little to comment on.

Oliver Hartwich: Reclaiming democracy in Poland

It is not just New Zealanders waiting for a new government to be formed following parliamentary elections. Poland also recently held an election – and like New Zealand, a change of government is expected.

Just as the details take some time to emerge here in New Zealand, forming a new government in Poland still faces some hurdles.

Oliver Hartwich: Irish secrets - An Irish lesson in prosperity

We are pleased to announce the release of our groundbreaking report, Irish Secrets - An Irish lesson in prosperity.

Written by Dr Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative, and featuring a foreword by Fraser Whineray, head of the delegation to Ireland, this report summarises what New Zealand can learn from Ireland.