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Thursday, May 28, 2020

GWPF Newsletter: Green Recovery Deal In Doubt As EU Divisions Deepen








Advantage Germany: No Climate Strings Attached In Lufthansa’s Bailout

In this newsletter:

1) European Commission's Green Recovery Plan In Doubt As EU Splits Deepen
Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2020

2) Competitive Advantage Germany: No Climate Strings Attached In Lufthansa’s Bailout
Bloomberg, 26 May 2020



3) EU Turns Climate Change Into Political Weapon In Brexit Trade Negotiations
Reuters, 25 May 202

4) ‘Planet Of The Humans’ EP Michael Moore & Director Jeff Gibbs Blast “Blatant Censorship” After Controversial Documentary Yanked From YouTube
Deadline, 26 May 2020

5) Most Sea Level Modellers Model Catastrophes, Expert Survey Reveals
AZO Clean Tech News, 26 May 2020

6) Pacific Island States Will Not Longer Play The Patsies For The Climate Alarmists
Craig Kelly, Spectator Australia, 25 May 2020

7) Conservative Council Borrowed £1 Billion From Taxpayers To Bet On British Sunshine
The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, 22 May 2020

8) Word Of The Week -Experts
Andy Shaw, Spectator Life, 22 May 2020
 

9) Join Our Webinar Tomorrow: Dodgy Computer Models, Dodgy Policies
GWPF, 27 May 2020

10) And Finally: UN Climate Conference Delayed Until Winter 2021
STV News, 27 May 2020

Full details:

1) European Commission's Green Recovery Plan In Doubt As EU Splits Deepen
Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2020

The European Commission has unveiled a €750 billion aid package to help the EU recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The plan will require unanimous backing from all 27 nations in the bloc. But Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden — known as the "frugal four" — have protested the proposal.

The European Commission on Wednesday proposed a €750 billion ($821 billion) aid package to help Europe's economic recovery from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed over 350,000 people globally.

In a statement on its website, the EU governing body proposed the creation of a new recovery instrument, dubbed Next Generation EU, to address the economic damage caused by the outbreak.

"Next Generation EU (consists) of €750 billion as well as targeted reinforcements to the long-term EU budget for 2021-2027 (and) will bring the total financial firepower of the EU budget to €1.85 trillion," the statement said.

The recovery fund would be embedded within the next long-term EU budget.

"The recovery plan turns the immense challenge we face into an opportunity, not only by supporting the recovery but also by investing in our future: the European Green Deal and digitalization will boost jobs and growth, the resilience of our societies and the health of our environment," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in the statement.

"This is Europe's moment. Our willingness to act must live up to the challenges we are all facing. With Next Generation EU we are providing an ambitious answer.”

Such an aid package requires all 27 member states to agree for the plan to take effect...

Opposition from the 'Frugal Four'

But Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden — known as the "frugal four" — have protested that proposal, saying the aid should instead come in the form of low-interest loans. They have said they would not agree to a mutualization of debt nor to an increase in the EU budget. The new budget period begins on January 1, 2021.

A Dutch diplomat, however, told the German dpa news agency that the proposal was unlikely to pass in its current form.

"The positions are far apart and this is a unanimity file, so negotiations will take time," the diplomat told dpa. "It's difficult to imagine this proposal will be the end state of those negotiations."

Full story

2) Competitive Advantage Germany: No Climate Strings Attached In Lufthansa’s Bailout
Bloomberg, 26 May 2020

Germany’s multi-billion euro bailout of Deutsche Lufthansa AG may cost the airline some precious airport slots, but one thing it won’t have to do is meet any new environmental rules.



Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government on Monday offered Lufthansa a 9 billion-euro ($9.9 billion) package to help the carrier survive the coronavirus pandemic. There was no mention of new measures to safeguard the climate, leaving the airline to stick to its strategy of replacing old jets with more fuel-efficient models and using less-polluting alternative fuels where possible.

It’s a sharp contrast to demands attached to bailout packages from other European Union countries, which are seeking fresh measures to curb airlines’ carbon footprints.

“It is a big mistake that Germany, unlike France, the Netherlands or Austria, does not link economic aid to specific climate-protection requirements,” said Claudia Kemfert, professor of energy economics at the DIW research institute in Berlin. “An important opportunity is lost.”

Full story

3) EU Turns Climate Change Into Political Weapon In Brexit Trade Negotiations
Reuters, 25 May 2020

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Britain’s refusal to seal climate commitments in a new deal with the European Union to govern their relations after Brexit has become a stumbling block in their deadlocked talks and raises the risk of future trade disputes.


European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and British Prime Minister’s Europe adviser David Frost 5 are seen at start of the first round of post -Brexit trade deal talks between the EU and the United Kingdom, in Brussels, Belgium March 2, 2020. Oliver Hoslet/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

While Britain has joined the global Paris agreement to fight climate change and has its own ambitious emissions-cutting goals, London has refused to make binding commitments in the area in the new deal it is seeking with the EU from 2021.

“This creates big problems with the level playing field and is increasingly politically sensitive in the EU,” said an official from the 27-nation bloc.

Britain has a legally-binding target to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. The EU’s executive Commission wants to set the same goal for the bloc, although it has yet to secure the support of all member states.

Yet their bust-up over climate provisions in the new deal reflects fundamental differences about the nature of their future relationship.

“The EU is trying to put this into the trade deal in another example of how it is seeking to continue influencing domestic UK policies,” said a British official.

Full story

4) ‘Planet Of The Humans’ EP Michael Moore & Director Jeff Gibbs Blast “Blatant Censorship” After Controversial Documentary Yanked From YouTube
Deadline, 26 May 2020

Green activists achieve what they have campaigned for after YouTube removed ‘Planet of the Humans’. The documentary is now free to watch on Vimeo



Michael Moore and Jeff Gibbs’ controversial documentary Planet of the Humans has been removed from YouTube, where it was streaming for free — a move the pair calls a “blatant act of censorship.”

EP Moore and writer-producer Gibbs told Deadline they discovered today that their film, which has racked more than 8.3 million views in a month-plus, was taken down from YouTube after a copyright claim was lodged against the documentary over four seconds of footage it contains.

"This attempt to take down our film and prevent the public from seeing it is a blatant act of censorship by political critics of Planet of the Humans,” Gibbs said in a statement provided exclusively to Deadline (read it below).

"It is a misuse of copyright law to shut down a film that has opened a serious conversation about how parts of the environmental movement have gotten into bed with Wall Street and so-called ‘green capitalists.’ There is absolutely no copyright violation in my film.”

Full story

5) Most Sea Level Modellers Model Catastrophes, Expert Survey Reveals
AZO Clean Tech News, 26 May 2020

According to the predictions of a new international study headed by the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, the faster melting of polar ice sheets than projected earlier may lead to a nearly 1.3 m rise in the ocean levels by 2100.









Icebergs in Ilulissat Icefjord, Greenland. The melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica can have a devastating impact on the world. Image Credit: Copyright—Mark Garten/UN Photo.

The new study was published recently in Climate and Atmospheric Science and predicts sea-level rise considerably higher than those projected by the UN’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2014 Fifth Assessment Report, and also in a special report on oceans and the cryosphere published in September 2019.

The researchers used a survey of opinions offered by 106 experts to estimate global mean sea-level variations under low- and high-emission conditions. Answers to open-ended questions in the survey imply that elevations in upper-end estimates emerged from the latest influential studies on the effect of the instability of marine ice-cliff on meltwater contribution to global mean sea-level rise.

According to Benjamin Horton, acting chair of NTU’s Asian School of the Environment and lead author of the study, under a high-emission condition, with a warming of 4.5 °C, the study predicts an increase of up to 1.3 m by 2100 and up to 5.6 m by 2300.

Full story

Reality check: Judith Curry – Sea Level and Climate Change

6) Pacific Island States Will Not Longer Play The Patsies For The Climate Alarmists
Craig Kelly, Spectator Australia, 25 May 2020

The science is settled. The time for debate is over. It’s actually better than we thought.














The Pacific islands are not sinking under rising sea levels, in fact, the peer-reviewed science shows the exact opposite, the majority of low lying islands are either stable or increasing in size — something even ABC FactCheck was forced to concede.

Nevertheless, this has not stopped climate alarmists led by the Portuguese socialist and UN General Secretary Guterres from denying the peer-reviewed science and exploiting Pacific Island nations, by using them as patsies to peddle fear and misinformation with discredited claims of ”sinking islands”.

And so far, the Pacific islanders have been happy to play along; perhaps driven by a cargo-cult mentality, believing if they utter the magic words ”climate change” and pose for the international media forlornly staring out over the sea, that they might be rewarded with cash handouts from the UN Green Global Climate fund.

But that was all before the Wuhan Flu.

Firstly, the worldwide economic devastation caused by the Wuhan Flu has turned the belief that the UN Green Climate Fund would have US$100 billion cash annually to hand out rivers of gold to Pacific Island nations, into nothing other than a delusional fantasy.

Secondly, the Wuhan flu, by temporarily putting an end to international tourism has given the Pacific Islanders a taste of the dark future they face if the alarmists pushing for “net-zero” get their way and end air travel until the eco-fantasy of electric-powered jumbo-jets powered by unicorn farts and pulled along by flying pigs becomes a reality.

For as Julian Allwood, a professor of Engineering and the Environment at Cambridge University, has recently admitted, the only way of achieving the fabled net-zero emissions in aviation is “by having a substantial period of no aviation at all.”

For an island nation like Fiji, tourism (which is dependent upon international air travel) contributes nearly 40% of their GPD and directly/indirectly employs over 150,000 people out of the nation’s population of around 900,000 — and where airfreight plays a vital role in exports and imports —  they are now getting a “trial run” of what life would be like if climate alarmists are successful in enforcing their sinister plans of net-zero.

Currently, with the Wuhan Flu restricting air travel and closing borders, Fiji Airways, the country’s national airline, has already grounded 95 per cent of flights. The Fiji Hotel and Tourism Association (FHTA) says a staggering 279 hotels and resorts have closed, with over 40,000 tourism workers either laid off or sent on leave without pay. And unlike Australia, Fiji doesn’t have a JobKeeper scheme to fall back on.

This current situation has been described as a ‘disaster’, a ‘complete catastrophe’, with livelihoods being destroyed and tens of thousands pushed into dire poverty. And although hopefully this will only be temporary until the travel restrictions are lifted, the Pacific Islanders will quickly realise, that if the climate alarmists get their way, this will become permanent.

And if their fragile economies are in ruins from the permanent decline in tourism brought on by the Climate Alarmists’ enforcement of ‘net zero’, these Pacific island nations will be substantially more vulnerable to not only the next cyclone that strikes but also to the seductive lure of selling their souls for China’s Belt and Road.

Full post

7) Conservative Council Borrowed £1 Billion From Taxpayers To Bet On British Sunshine
The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, 22 May 2020

A major investigation has revealed how Thurrock Council got into more than £1billion in debt, borrowing the money from around 150 local authorities across the UK. But instead of funding council services, the council gambled at least £604million in solar farms located outside of the borough.

Among Thurrock’s rundown council estates and neglected public parks, typical of many towns after a decade of austerity, there is nothing to suggest that over the past three years the local council has borrowed and then invested hundreds of millions of pounds of other councils’ money.

Under the direction of a senior council officer Thurrock borrowed from about 150 local authorities across the UK with little public scrutiny. These loans were not for direct funding of council services, or investing in infrastructure – instead they financed solar farms more than a hundred miles away.

Sean Clark, Thurrock’s director of finance, oversaw the investment of £604m in the solar industry, investments he says were prompted entirely by intermediaries approaching him with money-making opportunities. In an extraordinary interview with The Bureau, Clark wondered whether he had gone too far. At last count Thurrock owed other councils an unprecedented £1bn.

What neither Clark nor the council will disclose is which local authorities he borrowed from or what companies he invested in. To do so, they say, would harm Thurrock’s commercial interests and put off potential lenders.

However, an investigation by The Bureau has discovered the council has poured at least £74m, and possibly hundreds of millions more, into a single company, Rockfire Capital, whose financial model raises serious questions over how likely it is that the public money would be recovered in full if the business failed. This revelation comes at a time when many councils’ finances have been hit hard by the coronavirus crisis.

The situation in Thurrock is arguably the most stark example yet of the commercialisation of local councils, with town halls across the country turning to increasingly inventive money-making schemes to replace funding cut by central government. In 2018, the Bureau revealed that Spelthorne council had borrowed £1bn to play the property market, despite having an annual budget of just £22m. These schemes are made possible by easy access to cheap financing, in Thurrock’s case from other councils.

Thurrock, which is in Essex, describes itself as “unashamedly” focused on revenue, and says the returns from its investments have been put back into services. But the Conservative-led council has not been fully open with The Bureau or the wider public about how those profits were made.

John Kent, the former Labour leader of Thurrock council, called on the current administration to come clean. He said: “People absolutely need to be aware that the council has borrowed £1bn – that’s billion with a b.” He claimed that the council had declined to give elected members or the public adequate details of precisely how it invested the money.

Full story

8) Word Of The Week -Experts
Andy Shaw, Spectator Life, 22 May 2020

Definition:
A person who has special skill or knowledge in some particular field. An authority.













Model experts at work …..

Derivation:
The UK government ordered a national lockdown after following the science from experts in pandemic modelling. They have discovered that the authority of science can be used both to justify a policy and excuse it afterwards when it fails.
For many years politicians have launched waves of initiatives which are ‘evidence-based’ or ‘follow the science.’ The rules for engagement with experts are simple:

1. Pick your favourite expert
Politicians recognise that ‘evidence-led’ policy is difficult when there is such a range of evidence, that leads us in different directions. When dealing with contradictory evidence, it is important to ensure that any policy is evidence-led, by carefully selecting experts who will produce the required evidence in support of a proposed policy. The careful selection of experts enables policy-led evidence to be produced in support of evidence-led policies

2. Produce a number, any number
In modern times, experts use computer programmes to produce numbers that inform policy. Computer models can generate a series of forecasts and predictions on demand, by applying the appropriate assumptions. Some programs randomly produce numbers until an appropriately large number is generated. The big, scary number provides the evidence required to justify a radical policy.

Full post

9) Join Our Webinar Tomorrow: Dodgy Computer Models, Dodgy Policies
GWPF, 27 May 2020










Our next webinar is on Mathematical Models and Their Role in Government Policy. With  @HarryWilkinsonn, Prof Chris Essex, Prof Gordon Hughes and Dr Benny Peiser. Don't miss it!

Register here 

10) And Finally: UN Climate Conference Delayed Until Winter 2021
STV News, 27 May 2020

The UK is proposing that key UN climate talks postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic will be held in November 2021, it has emerged.

In a letter to UN member states, the UK has proposed the Cop26 talks, which were originally due to be held in Glasgow in November 2020, could be moved to November 1-12 2021.

At the beginning of April, an announcement from the UN’s climate body, the UNFCCC, and the UK Government said the summit would be pushed back to 2021 in light of the global pandemic, with dates to be decided.

According to the PA news agency, the proposed dates, which come after wide-ranging consultation, will be decided on by the UNFCCC’s Cop bureau, with discussions on the topic at the bureau’s next meeting on May 28.

Cop26 is the most important round of talks since the global Paris Agreement to tackle climate change was secured in 2015.

This year marks the date by which countries are expected to come forward with stronger emissions cuts to meet the goals of the deal.

Plans submitted so far put the world on a pathway towards more than 3C of warming, though the Paris Agreement commits countries to curb temperatures to 1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

But with countries around the world grappling with coronavirus, and many putting citizens in lockdown, governments have prioritised the immediate global health crisis.

Full story

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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