Where are the
so-called “experts” from the business sector and especially the university
business schools, concerning our post-Covid19
economic and social futures, for both are inextricably enjoined?
The little that has
appeared in the media so far is extremely shallow and spectacularly lacking in
real, innovative and profitable opportunities. Perhaps these” experts” are
hesitant to express their views for fear of being exposed for the shallowness
of their ideas?
It is patently obvious
that the coalition government is devoid of real-life business experience, relying on “experts” as their chosen path. But all we
have heard so far is:
a. The economic fallout will be real and severe;
b. the Reserve Bank can come up with billions of dollars through quantitative easing (printing more money), “helicopter” (ie free) money; and possibly, yes, taxing savings.( Oldies beware!)
c. Don’t expect economic life to return to pre-Covid19 levels
So, where are the experts who are capable of developing scenarios which
will turn the Covid 19 disaster into a spectacular entrepreneurial opportunity
for our wider economy?
Strangely, they are
muted or silent.
Even a cursory review
of the innovative opportunities available to us post-Covid19 reveal a huge
array of possibilities:
1. Tourism.
If you believe the
government and it’s sychophantic media, tourism is stuffed. No overseas
visitors; airline shutdowns; rental vehicles piling up in yards; and so on.
But, around 50% of our tourism industry already relies on domestic tourists. This
can be substantially increased because domestic tourist will be (hopefully)
virus-free. We are blessed to live in a country with some of the best
tourist-attractions in the world-scenery; wines; places of interest; a clean environment, in
spite of what the Greens keep telling us; relatively cheap accommodation; and
service staff who really do know what they are doing - if 4 million overseas
visitors a year is an indication. Increasing our domestic tourism via
“specials”, etc is a no-brainer! In doing so, they will in turn require
transport, accommodation, food, entertainment; and so on.
Has government not
realised that we already have a world-class tourism infrastructure? We do not have to invent it from scratch.
And 50% of the pre-Covid19 market is
already here, so let’s use it.
2. International
Education
In spite of some
academics bemoaning the loss of international students, the future of education
lies in online programmes. The Open University in the UK, and some US universities
such as MIT already offer really good
quality programmes online, and to a much lesser extent, Massey University in
NZ. If I were engaged in our universities, I would be recruiting hundreds of
staff to design and deliver quality, online programmes for a market which is world-wide. All NZ
universities score well on international ratings.
Students do not need
to physically come here. Regional tutors, tutorials and examinations can easily
be managed off-shore. What is the problem?
3. Primary Industries
There is an old and
well-worn term called “value-added processing” which holds that most of our
exports from New Zealand could be pre-processed for export. Research in one of our largest dairy factories
revealed that the 20kg blocks of cheese
we export go through some 10 further processes off-shore, before ending up on
dinner tables in Japan.
Then there is forestry.
Apparently some of our timber exported in log form is pre-processed in Asia then
re-exported back to New Zealand for use in building and construction! Further
processing is clearly possible here, as is furniture making, pulp and paper
production, and so on.
It goes without saying
that with a looming world food shortage, probably exacerbated by Covid19, New Zealand
needs to considerably up it’s game with more production, more pre- processing
and new food products. Let’s recognise, applaud
and encourage our exporter heroes, rather than dump on them, as the
Greens would have us do.
4. Secondary
Industries
In the 1970s and 80s,
New Zealand produced a very wide range of consumer and industrial products
ranging from clothing and footwear, through whiteware and electrical
appliances, to engineered products, tanneries, textiles, packaging, furniture and a whole host of assembly industries
including motor vehicles. Whilst many( not all by any means) components were
imported, the assembly and distribution sectors were large and vibrant. In more
recent times, we have seen virtually everything we purchase today, anywhere, is
made in China. Unbelievably, many food products we see in our supermarkets are
also imported-canned fruit, specialty condiments, cheeses, fish products and so
on. The only person to recognise our ability to do much more for ourselves, is
the NZ First leader who, whilst busy scoring political points from the
pandemic, is at least consistent in saying if we can grow it here (in NZ) or
make it here, we should. A widespread revival of secondary industry would solve
most of our economic problems in a very short space of time. But it seems the
Labour Party is intent on fostering international – pre-Covid19 trade deals
instead.
5. Extractive
Industries
Another no-brainer, where,
with suitable investment (and in spite of the Greens ideological opposition), many
of our natural resources could and should be processed further, here in New
Zealand. If necessary, take ownership of such industries as smelting, oil and
gas, mining, ironsands; expansion of re-cycling; waste processing; and so on.
6. Small and Medium
Enterprises
This sector provides
most personal and household services, most of the innovation and most of the
new jobs. We are at least seeing some evidence now not only of their importance
but also how many might adapt their businesses to online versions. Most are
capable of operating within the Covid19 health and safety guidelines of social
distancing and contactless delivery-even the local fish and chip shop can
operate by combining shop-front, hole-in-the-wall service and home
deliveries-as can most other local small businesses. Restaurants and bars could
easily construct self-contained booths to ensure social distancing, etc. And, how
many builders, for example, engage more than one or two tradies on the job at
any one time? I doubt they would stand around holding hands! And the
lawn-mowing contractor? House painter? Window cleaner?. Not under Alert Level
4.
At least under Alert
Level 3, some can now return to work.
If we do not support
and encourage small businesses to get moving and to develop new ways of doing
business, our economy will collapse. And this does not account for the jobs,
other necessary services and above all, the taxes the government is going to
need to ensure we have a future.
Summary
Governments cannot
distribute or re-distribute wealth unless it has first been created-and I am
talking about real wealth, not printed money or money delivered by
“helicopter”, which reminds us of the “cargo-cult” mentality of some third
world countries.
Yes, our government (with
the possible exception of various individuals such as the Health Minister of
all people) has acted responsibly in attempting to combat Covid19 and full
marks for doing so, but let us not be distracted by all the hype and melodrama
of the daily Covid19 briefings. We are entitled to expect a protective response
from our government, regardless of whatever particular political party or person is
fronting this crisis. It is the very least they should be doing, rather than
pitching their response as some sort of miraculous or divine intervention. A
clear balance is needed between ongoing public health issues, not just Covid19,
and the economic well-being of all New Zealanders. The economic opportunities post Covid19 are endless - if
we seek to take them - but we should not expect nor allow the state to do it
for us.
Henry Armstrong is retired, follows politics,
and writes.
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