Sunday, December 11, 2022

Stuart Smith: Local Governments’ Natural Hazard Information Based on Inaccurate Model

Great news! COP 27 confirmed at their recent conference in Egypt that the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expects the global temperature to increase by only 2.5 0C by 2100.

Not such great news is that the IPPC’s former prediction of a 5 oC increase, which triggered some – including our Prime Minister – to declare a ‘Climate Emergency’, was based on a model that has proven simply implausible.

The IPCC based their prediction of a 5 oC increase on an extreme model: RCP 8.5 which is a Representative Concentration Pathway of 8.5 watts of radiative forcing per square metre. While all the RCP scenarios or models run hot, RCP 8.5 assumed that the world would increase coal consumption beyond known reserves. An implausible assumption that has proven to be impossible for the IPCC to defend.

This implausible worst-case scenario underpins NIWA’s projected sea level rise and flood maps, which, if not updated, could unfairly impact property values.

The Local Government Official Information and Meetings Bill currently before Select Committee will, if passed, require councils to include natural hazard information, including the impact of climate change, on land information memoranda (LIM), which is attached to the property title.

Many properties will appear on these maps at risk of inundation by flood or sea-level rise that clearly will not happen. It is essential that if such information appears on a property title, it is accurate; clearly, the current maps are questionable at best.

Sea levels have been steadily rising for 20,000 years. Still, the Ministry for the Environment, NIWA and others are advising central and local governments to use sea-level projections some of which predict a rise up to 1.09 metres by the end of the century, based on the implausible RCP 8.5 model!

Even the Reserve Bank has got in on the act and produced a paper on climate change! When I asked Governor Adrian Orr what RCP they were using, he had no idea! Given that his job is to model the economy, it was staggering that he had no idea what assumptions the RBNZ was using.

RCP 8.5 also underpins the Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP); given the costs and restrictions it will impose, it must go back to the drawing board.

So, why was RCP 8.5 so enthusiastically taken up?

It is a vehicle to control the economy and every aspect of our lives. The ERP sets out transport policy, how we heat our homes and even tries to influence what we can eat.

The demonisation of agriculture underpins the move against meat and paints the agricultural sector as a climate villain.

Without going into the details, the work by Myles Allen et al from Oxford University has shown that we only need reduce agricultural emissions by 10% by 2050 to meet our international climate change obligations. This development is excellent news for everyone except the anti-farming lobby, which includes the current government. Let’s support our farmers, who are the most efficient producers of protein in the world.

Public pressure can make a difference, and I urge you to put pressure on your council to ensure that inaccurate information is not added to your home’s LIM. Your property value may depend on it.

Stuart Smith is a N Z National Party politician who has been a member of the House of Representatives for the Kaikōura electorate since 2014. This article was first published HERE


Rob Beechey said...

Well said Stuart. Doesn’t it confirm the obvious that Stuff and the rest of the MSM choose not share this revelation. NZCPR and Breaking Views platform is delivering a powerful realisation that there is no substance or credibility behind this ideologically driven Marxist Govt.

David P said...

It is so difficult to understand why some people who are elected to 'represent' us in Parliament can be so set on destroying the lives of New Zealanders while subscribing to some lunatic theory of a reset society.

Anonymous said...

It's not hyperbole to say they are just traitors with an agenda. They don't need to understand anything. They are detached from the realities of life because they are blind idealogues spawned of privilege. Their eyes will never see.