Heather du Plessis-Allan: Winston's going to be part of the new Government, isn't he?

I feel like we need to deal with the elephant in the room- Winston’s going to be part of this Government, isn’t he?

Nobody’s saying it out loud, but I think we can all see that it’s absolutely going to happen.

Take the cue from the fact that he was offered the Speaker’s job.

And as far as I can see, they’re going to need him because at the moment - assuming that they win the Port Waikato by-election – ACT and National look like they will have 62 seats out of 122 seats in Parliament.

That is not enough. Because if even one MP goes rogue, that means they only have 61 seats out of 122. What’s half of 122? 61- and that becomes a hung Parliament.

Effectively, they have actually only got one seat spare. And the thing is, MPs go rogue.

Gaurav Sharma, case in point. Or they misbehave like Kiri Allan or they quit like Jacinda Ardern. And if that happens too early in a term, you’re off to a by-election and then suddenly that one majority is under threat.

I would say that they almost certainly need Winston Peters and his caucus of 8, just to give them a bit of insurance and a bit of breathing room in case funny things happen.

It is possible that when the specials come in – that they could, in fact favour the Nats and ACT. It’s unlikely, but it could increase their majority and maybe drop that overhang down so they need less of a majority.

Even then, it’s tight and it’s unlikely. Chris Bishop himself has said that they’re actually expecting to lose at least one seat, which makes it more likely that they’ll need Winston.

Now the question is- will including Winston as insurance make the future Government more stable, or less stable than just going it alone?

I would say in answer to that question, counter-intuitively, including Winston actually makes everything more stable than just National and ACT. Because once Winston’s in there- he generally plays nicely once he’s inside the tent.

But a Government just one seat away from losing a majority is a Government that’s always at threat of somebody doing something funny.

Basically what it means is that every single MP in National and ACT gets to become a deal breaker on anything they care about.

All they have to do is threaten to walk away and the whole Government’s in trouble. They have too much leverage, too much threat in internal negotiations.

From what I can see, short of something majorly unexpected happening in favour of National and ACT- they’re going to need Winston.

Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show.