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Friday, October 13, 2023

Robert MacCulloch: For goodness sakes, some people you just can't help


For an entire week, this Blog has been focused on one issue - the false claim made by the PM that NZ's GDP growth rate is better "than every country, other than Japan" which he made to Hosking on Newstalk ZB. I saw it as crucial to the election campaign, which centers on economic credibility and in particular cost-of-living issues. The latest IMF figures, released two days ago, put NZ close to bottom on GDP growth - we're on track to be 180th out of 189 countries next year (and way down this year as well). I've checked the OECD Quarterly Growth Figures - since the PM inferred at one stage it maybe these numbers he's talking about - and NZ is certainly not 2nd after Japan there either.

So my point is that I've tried like a dog to put the truth out there - and I know many MPs receive this Blog - and thousands of folks have been reading it the past week and re-posting. But then in the Leaders Debate last night, the PM repeated his claim that NZ is beating every country other than Japan on the GDP numbers... and Luxon let it go.

How could he? His opponent was stating that Labour is a superior economic manager to National based on our GDP performance and it is not true. How on earth could Luxon not challenge him on the most crucial issue of economic competence? Luxon could have won the debate hands-down and election in that one moment - by showing his command of the OECD & IMF numbers and calling Hipkins' out as being deceptive. Once the PM knew if he could get away with that, he knew could get away with anything.

My political analyst friends in the US say folks expected John Kerry to lose the Presidential Election in 2024 when he got labelled a coward by George Bush & the Republican Party for not helping his fellow soldiers more in Vietnam when they came under enemy attack, even though Kerry had received three Purple Heart military medals when George Bush had been serving in the National Guard in Texas and dodging the draft. They said that for Bush to win the debate & label Kerry a coward when Bush had not served proved Kerry could not win a debate even when he held all the cards.

It seems to me that National has held all the cards on the economy and should have easily won these debates on the GDP growth numbers & cost-of-living since it's so clearly in tatters. To not win easily winnable debates with all the numbers on your side, and when Bloggers like me have handed them the evidence on a plate, beggars belief.

Sources:
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryName=350

Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.

5 comments:

Kawena said...

If New Zealand is second only to Japan, the rest of the world must be in a parlous state. More "lies, damned lies, and statistics" from our dear leader! What we need is a little more truth and honesty. It seems to me that we can only be "second to" and second last if there are only three in the race. Never mind Chippie, after Saturday take a break!
Kevan

Peter said...

It truly does beggar belief, Robert. But this whole election was handed to National on a platter for, on almost any and every front, Labour and the Greens have left the country dismally wanting. Through incompetence and fence-sitting, Luxon could well snatch defeat from the jaws of what otherwise should have been a certain victory. Of course, the MSM have played their not inconsiderable part too, but still...

One can only despair and hope for the best - for we will otherwise be a basket case if they lose, or have to rely on Winston.

Anonymous said...


Peter,
Spot on. And, last night's master class in lying by Hipkins was a gift.

Are we witnessing incompetence or fellow-travelling by National? This is not normal.

Anonymous said...

I swear that any single one of the tens of thousands of talented people still living in NZ could have, on their own, delivered a country in far better shape after these past 6 years than the whole parliamentary edifice combined. How would one person achieve such a feat? Simply by doing absolutely nothing. "Don't break what works, don't spend money you don't have".

Basil Walker said...

Robert ,
Thank you for confirming the GDP growth rate misnomer by Chippy at the debate . It makes me nervous that basic proven information and understanding seems irrelevant to Mr Luxon .
I rate the continued misuse of fact about non existent methane problem a similar issue when the IPCC has stated undeniably the previous methane information is wrong by factor of 300-400%.
Methane is an issue that should have disembowled Hon James Shaw but he escaped along with his spurious university degrees.