Ian Bradford: Isn’t the increase in Carbon Dioxide coming from natural causes not humans?

The IPCC and climate alarmists would have us believe that the Carbon Dioxide that humans  put into the air is causing global warming, and all kinds of other weather events. Well let’s look at an alternative.  

Let’s begin with the following graph which many would have seen before.

There are two things we can get from this graph put together using proxies. Proxies are physical characteristics like tree rings that indicate either temperature at the time or amount of CO2.

I’ve circled two places in red. (The blue line is the earth’s temperature and the black line is the CO2 concentration).  In the encircled part on the left the temperature of the earth has dropped to 12 deg C but the CO2 has risen, then as the temperature of the earth rises the CO2 falls.  On the right, the earth is steady at a temperature of 22 deg C, but the CO2 level steadily falls off to the present.  So this suggests strongly that there is no connection between the earth’s temperature and the amount of CO2.

The second thing we obtain from this graph is that the amount of CO2 from natural sources changes. No humans about for almost all of this graph time, so we cannot say humans were contributing to CO2. All the CO2 came from natural sources. There was wide variation from about 400ppm to 7000ppm. 

The IPCC keep saying that since the Industrial revolution the amount of CO2 from natural sources has remained the same. Can we believe this, since it has constantly changed throughout time.  

Now let’s look at this sketch provided by the IPCC. 

We don’t need to worry about any units as it is only the ratios we need. Humans contribute 29 units, and nature contributes 439 + 332 = 771 units. 

Total units is 29 + 771 =  800

So fraction of human contribution is 29/800 =  0.036 or approximately 0.04. This is 4 parts in 100 or 4%.  So 96% of all CO2 comes from natural sources. So it is this nasty 4% that causes global warming!  Now the natural CO2 and the human caused CO2 go up into the atmosphere. The Human CO2 keeps separate from the natural and that’s how we know it is the human CO2 that causes the warming. Well that’s a lot of rubbish isn’t it. So how do we know it is the human CO2 that causes warming as they will all be mixed up together. What the alarmists are saying is that 4% of Carbon Dioxide (a tiny amount), has much more effect than 96% of Carbon Dioxide.  

The concentration of CO2 at present is about 420ppm (parts per million). So the percentage of CO2 from all sources is 0.042%. But the human contribution is just 4%. So 4% of 0.042 is 0.00168%.  So in the atmosphere, in every 1 million gas molecules, 16 of them are human caused CO2. What a powerful army those 16 molecules are. 

We should mention the forgotten greenhouse gas-water vapour. Water vapour has on average 20,000 ppm. Those 16 human produced Carbon Dioxide molecules are simply 16ppm.  So there is 1,250 more water molecules than human caused Carbon Dioxide.  But the climate alarmists just ignore water vapour.  It’s still those 16 nasty Carbon Dioxide molecules that cause everything. 

The Sources of Natural CO2

The natural sources of Carbon Dioxide are: The oceans, decomposing vegetation and other biomass, wildfires, respiration from animals and plants, and, volcanoes.  The IPCC diagram above tells us that natural sources account for the majority of Carbon Dioxide released into the atmosphere.  The oceans provide the greatest amount of Carbon Dioxide of any natural  or anthropogenic source.   The ocean stores 50 times more Carbon Dioxide than the atmosphere, and 20 times more than land plants and soil.  Right, so most of the Carbon Dioxide is in the oceans.  

Some reports (Woods Hale Oceanographic Institution), for one, state that the oceans are warming, though not uniformly. One report states that the most warming is taking place around the tropics

All the oceans appear to be warming. The Indian Ocean which has warmed by 1Deg C since 1950, and the Nth Atlantic Ocean, exhibit strong warming trends. The Western Tropical Indian Ocean has been warming for more than a hundred years, i.e. since 1920. If this is the case then humans have played no part in this warming as it began at least as early as 1920. There is obviously some other reason for the warming. In fact, it appears the real reason for the warming has not been established yet.  The accelerated warming in recent decades can be put down to increased frequency of El Nino events. The warming of the oceans, plus the slowing of the Gulf Stream, is enough to put large quantities of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere. Remember, most of the Carbon Dioxide is in the oceans.  The warm pool in the Indian Ocean is expanding. 

 There seems to be agreement that the Gulf Stream is slowing. The Gulf Stream is responsible for transferring heat from the tropics to the northern parts of the world.  So the fact that most warming of the oceans is happening around the tropics, fits in well with a slowing of the Gulf Stream because the water is not flowing out of the tropics with any speed so it will just keep warming. 

      

This is a large scale ocean current in the top 1000m of the Atlantic. The current transports warm salty water northwards throughout the Atlantic and then in the sub-polar North Atlantic the water gets cold , becomes more dense and sinks to below 1000m and flows back southwards. This is what happens under normal conditions.  Now the climate alarmists claim that because of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet is melting and putting fresh water into the ocean in the northern latitudes.  This fresh water is diluting the salt water and making it less dense. So the top 1000m is not sinking like it should do, and so the circulating current is affected.  This is slowing down the Gulf Stream. The Greenland ice sheet is indeed melting, but not from global warming, but from underneath. Japanese researchers under Dr. Genti Toyokini of Tohuku University recently discovered a flow of molten rocks known as a mantle plume rising up beneath the island. It melts Greenland’s ice from below. The plume has two branches and the second one arises under Iceland and is responsible for the active volcano in recent times there. 

So now we know why the Gulf Stream is slowing.  This means increasingly warmer water is piling up in mid latitudes. More warm water will build up near the tropical areas. This increased heat energy in the water could cause stronger and more frequent hurricanes. There are already patterns of more severe heat waves and storms resulting from weaker ocean currents. 

An article by  Woods Hale Oceanographic Institution  from 2021 states: Hotter oceans hold more Carbon Dioxide, which causes sea water to become more acidic.  They then say the pH of the ocean is now around 8.1 representing a 25% increase in acidity. This is misinformation of the first order (or is it disinformation?). Let’s deal with the first part. You have a can of Sprite in the fridge. You take it out and pull the tab. There is a small fizz due to a small amount of pressure which you release. You pour it into a glass. You can see the bubbles of Carbon Dioxide coming off.  By the end of the day all the Carbon Dioxide has gone, because the liquid has warmed up. We say the Sprite has gone flat. So hotter oceans hold LESS carbon dioxide. The colder the ocean the more Carbon Dioxide it contains. 

Second part: The IPCC say that the pH of the oceans has increased by 0.1 since the beginning of the Industrial era. So if the pH is 8.1 now it was 8.2 then. The percentage drop in pH is then  (8.2-8.1)/ 8.2 X 100 =   1.2%

So the pH has dropped by just 1.2%.  The scary 25% quoted is the drop in Hydrogen ion concentration, not the pH.  The sea water is not becoming more acidic. It is becoming less alkaline.  The sea water has been alkaline most of geological time. The pH has to drop below 7 for the sea water to become acidic.    

Now the Gulf Stream has been slowing for at least 40 years, probably longer. So those areas of ocean around the equator and mid latitudes have been warming for that time. This means the oceans have been putting out large quantities of Carbon Dioxide for that time also. Here’s the increase in Carbon Dioxide since 1958 when Mauna Loa the recording station began. 

The graph on the right gives the period 2019 to 2024. No particular anomalies can be seen. The graph on the left gives a steady increase in CO2 from 1958. No dip in the graph can be detected while Covid lockdowns were in force. 

Now in the period 2019 to 2021 the world was dealing with Covid. 

The Journal of Environmental and Public Health in June 2023 stated : “The global crisis caused by the Covid 19 epidemic has led to an unprecedented reduction in daily Carbon Dioxide emissions.”  They cited the following reasons:  Energy consuming sectors were severely affected and also caused a reduction in foreign investment. Millions of people stayed at home. Industrial sectors were shut down. Coal mining was halted. Domestic travel and air travel decreased and so imports and exports decreased. 

Several articles say that the flow of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere was reduced. In April  2020 daily emissions of Carbon Dioxide fell by about 17%. 

This graph shows a reduction in CO2 emissions for April 2020 of about 20 million tonnes.  

Mauna Loa can detect Carbon Dioxide with an accuracy of 0.2ppm. There does not appear to be any change in the Mauna Loa graphs.  In fact many articles say although the emission of Carbon Dioxide was reduced the Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere continued to grow at the same rate. ( Local Carbon Project, 2020, Caltech March 2020, Journal of Environment al and Public Health, 2023, Fiona Harvey, Environmental Correspondent, June 2020.) 

So reducing the anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide had NO effect. Doesn’t this suggest that if the anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide was INCREASED by 17 % there would be NO change to the rising CO2!!  It would keep rising at the same rate.  So if CO2 keeps rising at the same rate even though humans reduced CO2 emissions by 17%, then it will keep rising at the same rate if human emissions are increased by 17%. 

To sum up:

1.      Natural Carbon Dioxide emissions have changed continuously over geologic time

2.     Natural sources of Carbon Dioxide FAR outweigh human contributions. Human contributions are only 4%. So apparently, the other 96% of CO2 from natural sources does nothing. 

3.     The oceans are warming.

4.     The Gulf Stream is slowing due to undersea volcanoes melting the Greenland ice sheet from underneath. This puts fresh water into the ocean, which hinders the circulation of the Gulf Stream, and slows it. 

5.     The slowing of the Gulf Stream means the water around the tropics and in mid regions gets warmer than usual, as it is not taking the heat away effectively. 

6.     The gradual slowing of the Gulf Stream coincides with the increase in Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. 

7.     Warmer water holds less Carbon Dioxide than cold water, so as the ocean warms more Carbon Dioxide is pushed out into the atmosphere. Bear in mind that most of the natural CO2 exists in the oceans.       

8.     Graphs from Mauna Loa showing Carbon Dioxide levels, show no change during the pandemic when Carbon Dioxide levels fell considerably at some stage. If a 17% decrease in CO2 levels doesn’t show up, then an increase of 17% of CO2 will not show up either. The rate of CO2 increase did not change during the pandemic. All this suggests the increase in CO2 comes from natural sources NOT human sources. 

The climate alarmists would not want the increase in CO2 to be coming from natural sources.

All those taxes and other restrictions on humans would have to go. Nothing humans could do would stop CO2 entering the atmosphere from natural sources. As long as the Gulf Stream keeps slowing, and the oceans keep warming, the Carbon Dioxide will come out of the oceans and keep increasing in the atmosphere.

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.