The fact Iran and Russia have started to evacuate their people is very significant. With Iran extended due to the conflict with Israel through their proxies and Russia extended with their invasion of Ukraine, neither country is able to prop up Assas as strongly as they did a decade ago.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.
Different parts of the country are held by different military groups and it is far from certain that conflict will stop, if Assad is toppled. Syria could split up, or it could become a failed state, a terrorist haven, or most optimistically a federal state with semi-autonomous regions.
The major armed groups are.
The major armed groups are.
- Syrian Armed Forces. Offical Armed Forces. Backed by Iran, Russia, Hezbollah
- Free Syrian Army. Big-tent grouping led by defectors. Backed by US, UK, Turkey
- Syrian National Army. Backed by Turkey
- Syrian Democratic Forces. Mainly Kurdish. Backed by US, UK. Opposed by Turkey
- Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham. Sunni Islamist. Backed by Turkey. Opposed by US. Associated with Al-Qaeda until 2017. They are the group that has captured two cities.
- Syrian Armed Forces. 1/10
- Free Syrian Army. 6/10
- Syrian National Army. 3/10
- Syrian Democratic Forces. 7/10
- Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham. 2/10
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.
4 comments:
By "geopolitically his fall is a good thing" I presume Mr Farrar means it suits Washington's geopolitical agenda. They hated Assad because he wouldn't kowtow to them.
A major reason for the collapse is that Hezbollah had to remove its elite units to defend the south of Lebanon against the Israeli invasion (which they did extremely well). So now we have a vacuum with charmers like al-Qaeda, ISIS and al-Nusra (rebranded as HTS) vying for local control.
My bet is that Syria will end up fractionated like Yemen and Libya. It will be interesting to see how long it will take ISIS and al-Qaeda to get their act together and start launching big attacks on the West again.
Hezbollah was actually protecting Europe by backing Assad and keeping the pressure up on those terrorist groups. (If you can understand that, pat yourself of the back - you are the 1 in 1000 Westerners who understand the Middle East!)
Minority communities in Syria will be trembling in anticipation to see what their fate will be - they were protected by the Syrian Constitution and defended against ISIS by the Syrian army and some Muslim militias.
If you think anything approaching a modern democratic state is now around the corner for Syria, you are a dreamer.
In the Middle East, you don't choose between good and bad. You choose between bad and worse.
To me it seems like such a great shame. For a long time we've led to believe he was a tyrant, but no, a keeper of stability and a very intelligent and reasonable man. The only good thing is, is at least he and his family were not murdered.
The colour revolutions keep on coming....Meddlers.
Are you serious. 'Assad was a good man" Just like Sadam Hussein was a good man! Tell that to the many thousands tortured and killed by both these tyrants
I see no point in the 'good man'/'bad man' dichotomy. I'll leave that to those whose ethical reasoning hasn't gone far beyond the kindergarten stage.
This is the real world - more pointedly, the real Middle East - where you need strong leaders to hold things together or the whole show descends into a hellish chaotic shambles with groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda running the show at the local level.
The choice 10 years ago was between al-Assad and al-Baghdadi (self-declared Caliph). Now it'll be between........ well, we'll wait and see who the wonderful West anoints as successor. Experience suggests the best we can hope for is another shambles.
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