Across Europe, this process is playing out exactly in this manner, and the latest instance is Austria.
For years, Austrian politics was a foregone conclusion. Power alternated between the Social Democrats and the conservative People’s Party, often even in coalition.
The country itself straddled East and West – officially neutral, but Western in prosperity and governance. Safe, stable, and the hills were alive.
That political order started to crack when the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) first entered coalition governments more than 20 years ago.
But now, Austria’s old democratic order has collapsed. Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ leader, could become the country’s first extremist head of government since World War II. That is because talks with the other, traditional parties have broken down, and Chancellor Karl Nehammer has resigned.
What happens in Vienna matters outside of this country of 9 million, for two reasons. The possibility of yet another pro-Russian government in Europe will increase Western vulnerability to Putin’s machinations. Second, the Austrian political earthquake may produce aftershocks, especially in Germany.
A Kickl chancellorship would revolutionise Austrian politics. He does not hide his respect for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and his “illiberal democracy” system. Although the FPÖ’s cooperation arrangement with Putin’s United Russia party is officially suspended, the pro-Moscow stance of Kickl’s party remains unchanged.
In March 2023, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Austrian parliament, FPÖ members left the hall in disapproval. With the Kickl chancellorship, Zelensky would probably not even get an invite again.
Joining Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia, Kickl may contribute to a powerful grouping in the European Union. Those three nations could prevent EU-wide agreements on anything from policies on Ukraine to migration.
But this is not just about Austria. Germany heads to the polls in February, and its Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is polling above 20 per cent. The parallels between the FPÖ and AfD are striking: both advocate for anti-immigration policies, both are eurosceptic, and both openly support Russia. They appear as parties from the same playbook. And maybe they are.
A Kickl chancellorship would provide ammunition for the AfD’s argument that it too deserves to be treated as a normal, legitimate political force. The party currently faces a Brandmauer (firewall), i.e. mainstream parties refusing any cooperation with it. But if Austria normalises far-right leadership, how long can this barrier hold?
At the same time, the AfD’s rise is receiving another boost from an unusual source. In the last few weeks, Elon Musk has thrown his weight behind the party by giving its leader, Alice Weidel, a forum on X and calling on Germans to help in what he is now calling the “last chance for a spark of hope.”
The world’s richest man and close partisan of the incoming US President thereby advocates a party watched by German secret services because of its extremism. It is a development so absurd you could not have made it up a few years ago.
Foreign interference in European democracy is nothing new, of course. What is different, however, is that political manipulation and disinformation are emerging from the Silicon Valley and Washington, and not from Moscow.
This may all be part of Putin’s long game. He has fostered discord and political polarisation across Western societies for decades and has built a climate in which even Western billionaires have unwittingly become agents of his agenda.
Putin’s strategy of creating movements sympathetic to his goals is clearly working. Hungary already routinely obstructs EU consensus on Russia policy. Slovakia under Fico has halted military aid to Ukraine. Adding Austria to this bloc would be a big achievement for the Kremlin. Adding Germany with an AfD chancellor would be Putin’s masterpiece, if it ever came to that.
Putin has created an extremism in Europe that is spreading across the continent. It is a pattern that should remind us of the 1930s when authoritarian movements across Europe came to the fore by gradually normalising extremism, one country at a time.
One should be careful with historical parallels but the similarities are too obvious to ignore.
The consequences of what is happening in Austria are economic and political. Austria has very much benefitted from the European integration. As an export-focused economy, it is dependent on single market access.
The FPÖ campaigns against “EU madness” and flirts openly with the idea of an “Öxit” an Austrian exit from the Union. It would be an act of self-sabotage, of course. But it would also push Austria further into Russia’s arms, and that may be the point.
So far, Europe’s traditional parties appear helpless in the face of this challenge. Their normal response – forming broad left-right coalitions to keep the far right from power – has just failed in Austria.
The collapse of the so-called ‘traffic lights coalition’ in Berlin was similar. There, too, parties from opposite ends of the political spectrum formed a coalition mainly to keep the AfD out.
However, these “anti-extremist” coalitions often do not last and are politically costly. By teaming up to sideline extremists, centrist parties risk reinforcing the far right’s depiction of a political elite ignoring the people.
There is only one option for mainstream parties to break this cycle. They must offer voters more compelling answers to their reasonable concerns on immigration, economic security and cultural change. If they do not achieve that, Austria will not be the final domino to fall.
History shows us that the collapse of democracy is rarely the result of a single blow. Rather, it breaks down bit by bit as extremism becomes the rule and the conventional politics gradually falls apart.
Austria is just the latest of these falling dominoes in European politics. Next month, in Germany, we could see another one
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was first published HERE.
The country itself straddled East and West – officially neutral, but Western in prosperity and governance. Safe, stable, and the hills were alive.
That political order started to crack when the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) first entered coalition governments more than 20 years ago.
But now, Austria’s old democratic order has collapsed. Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ leader, could become the country’s first extremist head of government since World War II. That is because talks with the other, traditional parties have broken down, and Chancellor Karl Nehammer has resigned.
What happens in Vienna matters outside of this country of 9 million, for two reasons. The possibility of yet another pro-Russian government in Europe will increase Western vulnerability to Putin’s machinations. Second, the Austrian political earthquake may produce aftershocks, especially in Germany.
A Kickl chancellorship would revolutionise Austrian politics. He does not hide his respect for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and his “illiberal democracy” system. Although the FPÖ’s cooperation arrangement with Putin’s United Russia party is officially suspended, the pro-Moscow stance of Kickl’s party remains unchanged.
In March 2023, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Austrian parliament, FPÖ members left the hall in disapproval. With the Kickl chancellorship, Zelensky would probably not even get an invite again.
Joining Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia, Kickl may contribute to a powerful grouping in the European Union. Those three nations could prevent EU-wide agreements on anything from policies on Ukraine to migration.
But this is not just about Austria. Germany heads to the polls in February, and its Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is polling above 20 per cent. The parallels between the FPÖ and AfD are striking: both advocate for anti-immigration policies, both are eurosceptic, and both openly support Russia. They appear as parties from the same playbook. And maybe they are.
A Kickl chancellorship would provide ammunition for the AfD’s argument that it too deserves to be treated as a normal, legitimate political force. The party currently faces a Brandmauer (firewall), i.e. mainstream parties refusing any cooperation with it. But if Austria normalises far-right leadership, how long can this barrier hold?
At the same time, the AfD’s rise is receiving another boost from an unusual source. In the last few weeks, Elon Musk has thrown his weight behind the party by giving its leader, Alice Weidel, a forum on X and calling on Germans to help in what he is now calling the “last chance for a spark of hope.”
The world’s richest man and close partisan of the incoming US President thereby advocates a party watched by German secret services because of its extremism. It is a development so absurd you could not have made it up a few years ago.
Foreign interference in European democracy is nothing new, of course. What is different, however, is that political manipulation and disinformation are emerging from the Silicon Valley and Washington, and not from Moscow.
This may all be part of Putin’s long game. He has fostered discord and political polarisation across Western societies for decades and has built a climate in which even Western billionaires have unwittingly become agents of his agenda.
Putin’s strategy of creating movements sympathetic to his goals is clearly working. Hungary already routinely obstructs EU consensus on Russia policy. Slovakia under Fico has halted military aid to Ukraine. Adding Austria to this bloc would be a big achievement for the Kremlin. Adding Germany with an AfD chancellor would be Putin’s masterpiece, if it ever came to that.
Putin has created an extremism in Europe that is spreading across the continent. It is a pattern that should remind us of the 1930s when authoritarian movements across Europe came to the fore by gradually normalising extremism, one country at a time.
One should be careful with historical parallels but the similarities are too obvious to ignore.
The consequences of what is happening in Austria are economic and political. Austria has very much benefitted from the European integration. As an export-focused economy, it is dependent on single market access.
The FPÖ campaigns against “EU madness” and flirts openly with the idea of an “Öxit” an Austrian exit from the Union. It would be an act of self-sabotage, of course. But it would also push Austria further into Russia’s arms, and that may be the point.
So far, Europe’s traditional parties appear helpless in the face of this challenge. Their normal response – forming broad left-right coalitions to keep the far right from power – has just failed in Austria.
The collapse of the so-called ‘traffic lights coalition’ in Berlin was similar. There, too, parties from opposite ends of the political spectrum formed a coalition mainly to keep the AfD out.
However, these “anti-extremist” coalitions often do not last and are politically costly. By teaming up to sideline extremists, centrist parties risk reinforcing the far right’s depiction of a political elite ignoring the people.
There is only one option for mainstream parties to break this cycle. They must offer voters more compelling answers to their reasonable concerns on immigration, economic security and cultural change. If they do not achieve that, Austria will not be the final domino to fall.
History shows us that the collapse of democracy is rarely the result of a single blow. Rather, it breaks down bit by bit as extremism becomes the rule and the conventional politics gradually falls apart.
Austria is just the latest of these falling dominoes in European politics. Next month, in Germany, we could see another one
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was first published HERE.
5 comments:
The extreme policies of left/liberals have created the conditions for these right wing parties. Musk pointed out that Alice Weidel is a lesbian and her partner is from Sri Lanka which per Musk isn't exactly the stuff of Hitler.
When Oliver and the other System shills with a platform talk about "democracy" they don't mean the people exercising their agency and supporting parties and policies they judge to best serve their and their compatriots' interests (which is what actual democracy entails), they, in short, mean a system of oligrachic rule by Washington and Wall Street elites, and the "rules-based international order" which is a euphemism for whatever serves Washington and Wall Street's interests, regardless of the implications for anyone else.
Well, it's all over, Oliver. As the System in which Oliver is a propagandist is increasingly recognized for what it is and inevitably collapses under the weight of its falsehoods and contradictions, the better.
What is 'far right"?
And surely if existing parties in power offer convincing arguments to the popular concerns that must make them ‘far right’? Yes?
The German election will be fascinating to see if the changing sentiment promoted by the Don is taking hold.
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