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Friday, February 21, 2025

Dave Patterson: Is China Rehearsing for War?


Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has made clear to European leaders that the US national security focus is on China. All indications are that the Trump administration is right to reorient its attention more fully on the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) dangerous escapades in menacing its neighbors and the Indo-Pacific region.

Over the course of the previous administration, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) intruded more into Arctic waters near Alaska, challenging the US presence; aggressively imperiled the Philippine naval forces; and routinely penetrated Taiwanese domestic waters. Such behavior raises concern that what might appear to be training exercises are rehearsals for perilous aggression.

China Is the New Focus

While attending meetings at NATO headquarters last week, Hegseth made clear that the United States is turning more of its diplomatic and military focus to the Indo-Pacific. As Liberty Nation News reported:

“Hegseth said he was expressing ‘directly and unambiguously’ that ‘stark strategic realities’ keep the US ‘from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.’ The reason is not difficult to understand. The US has an imperative to focus on the threat to the security of its borders, and America must address a ‘peer competitor in the communist Chinese,’ which is capable of menacing the US ‘homeland and [its] core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.'”

The US spotlight on the Indo-Pacific could not come at a more opportune time. The PLA Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) have, over several years, increased the tempo of their military training and exercise events. Furthermore, the CCP-approved harassment of the Philippine Coast Guard and commercial fishing vessels in the South China Sea and around the small islands and atolls Manila claims sovereignty over have intensified.

A recent assessment of PLA operations in the Indo-Pacific is sobering and should be taken seriously. What might have been considered regular military training or exercises has taken on a more ominous dimension. RealClearDefense published a Defense One report on how the Indo-Pacific regional commander, Admiral Sam Paparo, assessed the situation in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Paparo’s explanation of what China is up to created a more intense sense of urgency for the United States and its regional allies to employ an effective bulwark against the CCP’s overt aggression. In commenting on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) behavior, Paparo warned, “The Chinese actions — which just this month have included sending multiple spy balloons, naval vessels, and military planes around the island — are ‘rehearsals for the forced unification of Taiwan to the mainland … [China’s] increasingly complex multi-domain operations demonstrate clear intent and improving capability.'”

It’s not just China’s preparation for invading Taiwan that worries Paparo. According to the US Naval Institute’s USNI News quoting Paparo, “On the military side, he said joint Russia-Chinese naval exercises ‘have become more sophisticated in the North Pacific’ and joint bomber patrols are more assertive in testing the United States’ exclusive economic zone. They also share anti-satellite capabilities and advanced submarine technologies.”

Beijing Growing Bolder in the Arctic

As the US national security gaze moves further North, the Arctic is a growing concern as China and its ally Russia push their presence into the polar region. A Forbes article recently observed, “Nations like the US, Russia, and China are jockeying for influence, not only to access the Arctic’s vast natural resources but also to secure strategic military and trading advantages. Greenland, in particular, is shaping up to be a geopolitical hotspot, and it’s no wonder that Trump has repeated his interest in acquiring the island.” Military adventurism by China and Russia is most disturbing. Achieving military dominance in the Arctic could secure all the commercial advantage the Sino-Russian alliance would desire.

The Moscow-Beijing partnership has given China greater purchase in the northern Pacific, particularly the Arctic. “Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been making unprecedented concessions to China when it comes to Arctic affairs,” the news service Global Insights reported in December 2024. China’s efforts to dominate the Indo-Pacific in the South China Sea, the Bering Sea adjacent to US sovereign waters, and the Arctic present a significant challenge to Donald Trump’s national security team. Hegseth’s recognition of the threat and taking action to spotlight where the United States must focus its military capability and resources are encouraging. The United States must cede any advantage to the growing China threat.

Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

In the meantime places like the Cook Islands are letting China in the front door, which is the back door for us.

The Jones Boy said...

Of course China is "rehearsing for war". Every army in the world rehearses for war. That's their job and hardly a novel concept. But China has more to gain from war than most countries. Historical grievances, a failing economy, national pride; all potent reasons for going to war. And that's before the damage they can cause to the West from destroying Taiwan's micro-chip industry and blocking maritime trade through the South China Sea. Add to that Donald Trump's indifference to honouring America's defence commitments, and why shouldn't China test his resolve? They have nothing to lose by playing war games, particularly around Taiwan, because they expect Trump to abandon the Taiwanese exactly like he abandoned the Ukranians. After all, Taiwan would have started the war by refusing to accept mainland hegemony. The days of trusting America to do the right thing are over. It gives MAGA a whole new meaning. Make America Gutless Again. And we are all less secure as a result.

Hugh Jorgan said...

Jones Boy - Trump hasn't "abandoned the Ukranians" per se, he's cuddling up to Putin to isolate China. He knows the EU will cover Ukraine's back and Putin won't risk a wider conflict.