Pages

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Professor Robert MacCulloch: Who should NOT be next Governor of the Reserve Bank.


Its official. Soon-to-be former Governor Orr of the Reserve Bank of NZ has gone into hiding. Meanwhile the media, both national and international, are speculating as to who the next Governor, will, or should, be. So here is who the next Governor should not be, with brief reasons. Note that each one of these names has been touted either in the Herald, or by Bloomberg News, or the likes of Business Desk, or National Business Review:

= Treasury Chief Economist Dominick Stevens. Why not? He was Westpac Chief Economist for a decade. The idea of a former Big Monopoly Bank Economist becoming Governor who cuts capital requirements, which the NZ Initiative, Business Groups, and the Big Banks are lobbying for, so they can make bigger profits, only to be bailed out again, is morally wrong.

= Assistant RBNZ Governor Karen Silk. Why not? She's a former "senior executive" from - you guessed it - Big Monopoly Bank Westpac, and to top it off, she has no economics qualifications. Former Governor Orr hired her. Say no more.

= Acting Governor Hawkesby. Why not? He's the preferred choice of former Governor Orr, which rules him out before we get started. Like Silk, Orr hired him. Not worth discussing as a contender.

= RBNZ Board Chair Neil Quigley. Why not? Quigley is a mate of Steven Joyce and Vice Chancellor of Waikato University. He's the one who caused the omni-shambles that has now become the Reserve Bank. How come? He hired (former) Governor Orr in the first place, and pushed for the renewal of his contract just over one year ago. He sits as the ultimate architect, along with Orr, of the high inflation, and now stagnation NZ is experiencing. He should resign.

= Current Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold. Why not? Amazingly the NZ Herald's economic correspondent, Liam Dann, touted him for the job of Governor. Dann says, "Prior to joining Westpac, Eckhold spent 12 years at the International Monetary Fund, working on monetary policy, foreign exchange, and financial stability issues. Would he be interested in the job? “I think it sounds like a great job,” Eckhold replied. Again, the idea of a Big Monopoly Bank Economist becoming Governor, when he is is currently designing ways to make even bigger monopoly profits for that industry is too outrageous to even contemplate.

= Another Big Bank Economist, like ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley, or Kiwi Bank Chief Economist Jarod Kerr. Why not? The Herald's Liam Dann likes these chaps - he's always interviewing them. Again, letting Big Bank Monopoly foxes inside the chicken coup is a non-starter.

There is a world of talent out there. But the best profile is emerging: someone who knows their stuff by virtue of having a high-level mix of qualifications in economics, as well as experience in Central Banking, and is not seeking to use the job to become a Kardashian-style influencer. Humility and modesty would be a nice change. And someone who is not associated with wildly pushing either a strongly leftist or strongly rightist agenda. And since international factors are so important these days, someone with that background, who has proved they can cut-the-mustard overseas, but also has the best interests of NZ at heart. 

Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.

1 comment:

Robert Bird said...

How about Javier Milel.Afuera!!