Ian Bradford: Climate and Weather Are Not the Same - and thinning clouds cause the warming.

A number of weather events have been happening lately that have been associated with climate change by the climate alarmists. Weather events do not in general, signify climate change.

Weather is real and observed as well as being chaotic and non linear. There are no regular patterns with weather. Weather is part of our physical world, climate is not. You can look out your window and see weather. You cannot see climate by looking out your window. Climate is an abstract concept. That means it exists in thought or as an idea, but does not have a physical existence. We know most climate predictions are made using a computer. So clearly there is no physical existence. In fact, it is likely no one living at present will notice any climate change. When scientists talk about global warming they are talking about 1.1 deg C since the Industrial Revolution in 1850. We don’t know whether it is true or not, but the alarmists say most of the warming has occurred in recent years. So to get around this let’s take 80 years from year 1900. 80 Years is an average life span. So for someone who lived from 1900 to 1980 the temperature increase was just 0.5 Deg C. Given a lifespan of about 80 years can anybody detect a rise of 0.5 deg C over their life? No of course they can’t.

More than $1 trillion is spent every year to fight a climate crisis that doesn’t exist. That money is squandered but no actual life is saved by this spending. Bjorn Lomberg argues that we should first focus our resources on more immediate concerns, such as fighting malaria and other serious diseases, as well as assuring and maintaining a safe fresh water supply which can all be addressed at a fraction of the cost and save millions of lives in our lifetime.

It is a real tragedy that trillions have been spent to reduce CO2 and transition away from fossil fuels, with may thinking that the “climate problem” was caused by carbon pollution. If we are going to call carbon dioxide carbon then I suppose water becomes hydrogen.

The US Supreme Court has ruled that carbon dioxide is NOT a pollutant. It is not a pollutant because it is not harmful to human beings, animals or plants. We breathe out carbon dioxide with a concentration of about 40,000 parts per million, so if it is a pollutant we are all polluting.

NASA says CO2 is responsible for 70% of the Earth’s increased greening. Greenies and alarmists should look at the pollutant dihydrogen oxide which is present in our rivers in greater quantities during a flood!

Let’s look at weather events in two locations, one of them very recent.

Firstly, what is meant by a 100-year flood zone? This is not a guarantee that the area will flood once every hundred years. It is in fact a 1 in a 100 (1%) probability that the area will flood in any one year. The area covered by a 100-year flood is called a floodplain. Flood maps help authorities plan where houses can be built.

WEATHER IN THE UK

UK’s weather is very local and not a reliable proxy for global weather patterns. Its unique location between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Europe means it is influenced by a complex mix of air masses and weather fronts leading to highly variable and often unpredictable conditions.

Being an Island, the UK is heavily influenced by the surrounding ocean, particularly the Atlantic. The proximity to the sea leads to milder temperatures, especially in winter, compared to inland areas of similar latitude. Five main air masses converge - polar and tropical, maritime and continental. The interactions between these air masses create weather fronts resulting in frequent changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind. The prevailing westerly winds in the UK bring frequent depressions and their associated weather fronts from the North Atlantic. The Gulf Stream, a warm ocean current brings warmer waters towards the UK contributing to milder winters. So the UK’s weather is a product of its specific geographical and meteorological circumstances. Natural variability governs the weather in the UK and it will always change in non linear and chaotic ways. Climate does not govern the weather in the UK at the present time.

THE RECENT TEXAS FLOOD

July 2025 saw a flood event in central Texas triggered by a rare and potent meteorological configuration.

While meteorological extremes initiated the July 2025 flood event, the morphology of the Guadalupe river, its shape, behaviour and flows, was pivotal in transforming heavy rainfall into a catastrophic flash flood.

The upper basin’s physical geography, drainage configuration, and valley structure, contributed to the rapid concentration, and rapid propagation of floodwaters.

Known as “Flash Flood Alley”, the terrain of the upper Guadalupe river basin amplified the July 2025 flood through a combination of steep slopes, shallow soils, and karstic geology. (Karstic limestone is limestone that has been shaped by water creating plains and sinkholes). The steep slopes limited infiltration and led to rapid soil saturation under intense rainfall. Additionally, narrow valley sections created hydraulic bottlenecks, accelerating flow and increasing flood depth, particularly affecting residential areas and campsites.

Prior to the July 2025 event Texas had already experienced elevated soil moisture conditions due to above average rainfall during June and early July. The soil was between 90 and 100 % saturation When intense rainfall arrived the ground was quickly saturated resulting in immediate and rapid surface runoff. In Texas’s steep hill country, the time for water to flow from source to outlet was just one to two hours. So heavy rain can lead to dangerous river rises very quickly.

The July floods in Texas were devastatingly deadly. A CONFLUENCE OF VARIOUS METEOROLOGICAL AND TOPOGRAPHICAL FACTORS WAS TO BLAME. NOT CLIMATE. An overheated atmosphere, saturated with water vapour unleashed record breaking rainfall. The unique terrain of Texas Hill Country funnelled that rain swiftly into the river system, while the region’s hydrology, already primed by previous storms, converted nearly all of it into runoff.

There is very little evidence from the brutal cold period of the Little Ice Age, but various woodcut drawings show that flooding is the major disaster of cooling, not global warming. Colder climates cause a greater difference between Polar temperatures and Tropical temperatures and this difference is more unstable and leads to more severe weather. The Little Ice Age between 1300 and 1850, was marked by significant weather fluctuations including periods of intense flooding. While the Little Ice Age is associated with colder temperatures, particularly in winter, it also brought about more frequent and intense storms leading to widespread flooding in some regions.

The storms of the middle ages are well documented and there are many. I shall mention only two or three.

· The 16 and 17th centuries in England for example, experienced numerous severe rainstorms and floods in the 16thCentury, with rivers overflowing their banks and causing significant damage.

· A major storm in 1570 caused significant flooding from Lincolnshire to London, with rivers overflowing and storm surges impacting the coastline.

· The great storm of 1703. There were 15,000 deaths mainly due to drowning, ships lost, massive damage to buildings and trees.

The list of these storms is almost endless. Tens of thousands of lives were lost.

THE STORMS AND FLOODING WE ARE SEEMINGLY HAVING AT PRESENT ARE NOT NEW. They have happened many times in the past. Times, when humans could not have possibly had any influence on climate change!

Several recent papers suggest that weather events become less erratic and severe during warming periods. Cooling, not warming leads to weather instability.

WHAT DO SOME HIGHLY QUALIFIED PEOPLE THINK IS CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING?

Here’s the report from one.

In his latest newsletter report, German professor Fritz Vahrenholt shows the global average temperature has decreased in June and early July 2025, and has seen a downward trend since January 2025.

United States data for 20 years show no warming trend from the most detailed records on Earth. This explains why the UN dropped global warming hysteria for climate change hysteria. Every weather report on Earth now blames climate change for all rain, winds and storms.

According to Vahrenholt, the primary cause of the current warming is due to cloud thinning and the resulting increase in direct shortwave solar radiation. The warming is primarily due to natural phenomena and NOT CO2. The fact of cloud thinning is based on NASA CERES satellite measurements from the last 25 years.

Vahrenholt cites a connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and cloud formation and sunshine duration. The oceans have warmed, and during high ocean temperatures clouds are said to be more permeable, allowing more sunlight to pass through. This correlation is supported by a publication in Nature Scientific Reports, showing that sunshine duration follows the cycles of Atlantic temperatures.

Since 1980, the sunshine hours in Germany have increased due to decreased cloud cover, and this means temperature has increased.

Varhenholt concludes that current climate policies in Europe and Germany, aiming for net- zero CO2 emissions by 2045 are based on inadequate models.

In summary, Human CO2 emissions are not the driver of our climate. Instead, the main drivers are natural cycles and cloud formation.

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.