Labour and its allies have pulled ahead of the Government in the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll, with opposition parties reaching 50 percent support in August, up four points from July.
In contrast, backing for the National led coalition dropped 4.5 points to 46.5 percent, its lowest level this year. Within the Government, National fell to 29 percent, ACT remained steady on 10.5 percent, and New Zealand First slipped 2.5 points to 7 percent.
Labour led the Opposition’s rise, gaining three points to 34 percent which is its highest level in nearly a year. The Greens climbed to 13.5 percent, while the Māori Party eased back to 2.5 percent.
Roy Morgan said these results would translate to 62 seats for Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party in a 120 seat Parliament, compared to 58 seats for the Government. Labour would hold 42 seats, the Greens 17, and the Māori Party three. National would secure 36 seats, ACT 13, and New Zealand First nine.
Support for smaller parties outside Parliament stood at 3.5 percent. This included 3 percent for The Opportunities Party, while the rest was spread across groups such as the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party, and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
The Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 83.5 in August, with 53.5 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction and 37 percent saying it is heading in the right direction. Consumer confidence slipped by 2.7 points to 92, although it remained higher than Australia’s.
A clear generational divide is evident. Younger voters, particularly women under 50, strongly favour the Opposition. Among women aged 18 to 49, 76.5 percent back Labour, the Greens or the Māori Party, compared to just 20 percent supporting the Government. Younger men also lean to the Opposition by 51 to 41.5 percent.
Older voters favour the Government. Women aged 50 and over support National, ACT and New Zealand First by 60.5 percent to 39 percent, while men over 50 back the coalition by 66.5 percent to 31 percent.
Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine said “support for Labour increased 3% points to 34%, the highest level of support for the party since August 2022, when former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern still led the party.
Support for the Greens was up 2% points to 13.5% and the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 2.5%.
“There is now a clear age split emerging with the Labour led Opposition now favoured by both younger women and men for a second straight month,” Levine said. “This support is clearly driven by younger women with their support for the Opposition well over triple their support for the Government.”
Levine noted there was some positive news for the Government, with the Reserve Bank cutting the Official Cash Rate in August to 3 percent, the lowest level since 2022.
“While the latest annual growth figures show the economy has shrunk by 1.1 percent compared with a year ago, the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year are providing renewed support to the economy,” she said.
The poll surveyed 873 New Zealanders by landline and mobile between July 28 and August 24.
Broadcaster Chris Lynch is an award winning journalist who also produces Christchurch news and video content for domestic and international companies. This article was originally published by Chris Lynch Media and is published here with kind permission.
Labour led the Opposition’s rise, gaining three points to 34 percent which is its highest level in nearly a year. The Greens climbed to 13.5 percent, while the Māori Party eased back to 2.5 percent.
Roy Morgan said these results would translate to 62 seats for Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party in a 120 seat Parliament, compared to 58 seats for the Government. Labour would hold 42 seats, the Greens 17, and the Māori Party three. National would secure 36 seats, ACT 13, and New Zealand First nine.
Support for smaller parties outside Parliament stood at 3.5 percent. This included 3 percent for The Opportunities Party, while the rest was spread across groups such as the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party, and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
The Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 83.5 in August, with 53.5 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction and 37 percent saying it is heading in the right direction. Consumer confidence slipped by 2.7 points to 92, although it remained higher than Australia’s.
A clear generational divide is evident. Younger voters, particularly women under 50, strongly favour the Opposition. Among women aged 18 to 49, 76.5 percent back Labour, the Greens or the Māori Party, compared to just 20 percent supporting the Government. Younger men also lean to the Opposition by 51 to 41.5 percent.
Older voters favour the Government. Women aged 50 and over support National, ACT and New Zealand First by 60.5 percent to 39 percent, while men over 50 back the coalition by 66.5 percent to 31 percent.
Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine said “support for Labour increased 3% points to 34%, the highest level of support for the party since August 2022, when former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern still led the party.
Support for the Greens was up 2% points to 13.5% and the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 2.5%.
“There is now a clear age split emerging with the Labour led Opposition now favoured by both younger women and men for a second straight month,” Levine said. “This support is clearly driven by younger women with their support for the Opposition well over triple their support for the Government.”
Levine noted there was some positive news for the Government, with the Reserve Bank cutting the Official Cash Rate in August to 3 percent, the lowest level since 2022.
“While the latest annual growth figures show the economy has shrunk by 1.1 percent compared with a year ago, the sharp cuts to interest rates over the last year are providing renewed support to the economy,” she said.
The poll surveyed 873 New Zealanders by landline and mobile between July 28 and August 24.
Broadcaster Chris Lynch is an award winning journalist who also produces Christchurch news and video content for domestic and international companies. This article was originally published by Chris Lynch Media and is published here with kind permission.
9 comments:
Maybe the younger voters need a young, conservative thinking, inspiring person who doesn't want the country divided, to relate to? In Britain, Australia and the US they have these younger citizen journalists and identities pushing back on woke, They have very large followings. They get the message out. We don't have such a person in New Zealand. People like Tommy Robinson, who I acknowledge may not appeal to everyone, has a certain genuineness, audacity and charisma.He has the persona of a "person of the people". He is not really a conservative but certainly has the backing of British citizens of all ages.
Can we (that's the royal 'we') please ignore all polls until 3 months out from the election. I don't know about everybody else, but I'm sick of hearing about them. Why have they become a 'thing' across the entire parliamentary cycle?
Sometimes countries have to learn the hard way Chris. When Zimbabwe decolonised by killing white farmers and taking over their farms, the whole country was plunged into poverty. Hyper inflation mean't that the zim dollar was worth nothing. Many workers on those farms no longer had homes or money to send their kids to school. Nz will become as equal a basket case.
Let me play Devil's Advocate. I am a young, educated, working NZer. I spend half my income on rent and realise that under the current socioeconomic regime I have zero chance of ever owning a home. I can barely make ends meet as it is and any thoughts my partner and I may have along the lines of starting a family have to be quashed because that would see me and my offspring enter a poverty cycle from which there is no escape.
I see two political camps. One promises more of the same, and tells me that the other lot would see the ruin of the country. That other lot promise me a better life which they say they will finance by taxing the wealthy and the productive sectors.
Who am I going to vote for?
(NB reader note the writer of this comment is a septuagenarian.)
PS to preceding hypothetical situation: there is no 'Bank Daddy and Mummy' to draw on on either side.
50% of all voters have a below average IQ!
And taking Barend's apt comments a step further those voters might not see the various issues and rhetoric about ''Maori'' rule and co-governance as of importance because the media they read or see, if they have time, dismiss it as a minority , racist scare campaign driven by old grumpy mainly men. After all if it was true our media are honest and would report it. And some of these gruntfuttocks go on about some pjf (fund). That is another conspiracy. And why should I care ? if I do not own a house/land there is nothing to take away from me and, in any case, those older folks are well off and should be taxed on capital and assets as they caused my problems.
By definition in any Normal Distribution (hump in middle, tails going out left and right as mirror images) a tad under 50% of the population is below the mean (average). But is there a relationship between IQ and position on the L to R political spectrum? Hermann Goering had an IQ of 138 (highly talented), about the same as that of Vladimir Lenin (estimated at 135+). A lot of research over the past decades has suggested that high IQs are associated with social liberalism and at the same time fiscal conservatism. In other words, live and let live, but if you're in govt, I expect you to watch the pennies and be frugal and responsible about spending public money. This combination does not fit in neatly with the left-to-right political spectrum that most people seem to have in mind.
Barend, your scenario is excellent. You get people thinking, and thats important. There have been numerous studies on instant vs delayed gratification. The left will provide that instant hit, but leave a mess in the mid to long term. The centre are mostly about sacrificing the short term for longer term well being.
Unfortunately there are just too many entitled losers in this country who want something without having to lift a finger for it....NOW.
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