David Farrar: Can you waka jump when you have overhang?

It seems clear that the Tamihere faction wants to expel Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Takuta Ferris from Te Pati Maori, and possibly to also waka jump them from Parliament, causing by-elections.

At first glance they should be able to do this, as you only needs a two thirds majority in caucus to expect MPs under the Electoral Act. So four of of six in favour would qualify.

But there may be another aspect to it, which could be interesting. The criteria for expelling an MP is that:

the parliamentary leader reasonably believes that the member of Parliament concerned has acted in a way that has distorted, and is likely to continue to distort, the proportionality of political party representation in Parliament as determined at the last general election

Now at the 2023 election, Te Pati Maori’s share of the party vote only entitled them to four MPs. They won six electorates so two seats are overhang. You could argue that having two MPs leave Te Pati Maori doesn’t distort the proportionality of Parliament,. but actually enhances it!

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.