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Friday, November 14, 2025

Ryan Bridge: We need economic headroom


I've seen a lot of commentary in the past few days about our government debt position.

We're up over 40% of GDP - that's doubled on pre-Covid.

There are those on the left who say that's too little. We should borrow more. Forget a debt ceiling, borrow more and throw it at the public service and create some jobs - any jobs.

This is what Carney is doing in Canada. His budget would double Ottawa's debt to $80-odd billion.

They've got Trump tariffs and weak domestic demand, so, he's getting out the deficit and trying to revive it.

Make no mistake, if a Labour-led government were to get in, that is the approach we'd have taken here.

Chris Hipkins has made that very clear. TPM and the Greens would make sure of it, too.

What we haven't heard from them yet is how much more they're wanting to borrow. Remember Robertson has a debt ceiling of 30% of GDP. Well, didn't that go well?

The fact is it's popular to spend more. It sounds like you're doing something. The more you spend, the more you care, goes the theory.

Average public debt ratio to GDP for advanced economies is roughly 110%.

So, we're well under that. But we're a small, isolated and trading-exposed country in the middle of trade war.

What we need is headroom. Morningstar, who've just given the government AAA credit rating, said as much.

And as for those banks making massive profits?

Well, turns out that's actually quote important, too. Morningstar said we weathered the housing market correction so well because of well-capitalised banks that are also very liquid, and they have strong buffers to absorb losses.

So not all is as it seems. Bank profits and seemingly stingy insistence on returning books to surplus not only keep our interest costs down, but also keep us afloat during tough times.

Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.

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