Basically, we're evenly split.
As many of us are in favour of Labour's plan as are against it.
The results are interesting, though. The details.
So, more Aucklanders hate it more than the rest of the country.
45% of Aucklanders oppose it. Only 32% support it.
Now, Auckland holds the keys to the kingdom, electorally, as Labour found out in stunning defeat at the polls two years ago.
Auckland lockdowns collapsed their vote. As did the cost of living.
So, if you're National, that's where you focus your anti-CGT campaign.
Its' also interesting, and the Herald piece on the poll makes this point, in areas where people are doing well, where house prices haven't caved. There's more support. In areas feeling poor because their house price has fallen through the floor, they don't like it.
So basically, you have squeezed-middle voters telling you they feel too poor to support another tax.
And so, you end up with this fight between people who like the sound of an idea, and people who feel it will threaten their chance of growing wealth.
Then you've got to ask yourself, will the tax do what it says on the label? Will it pay for millions of extra doctor's visits? Where will these doctor's magically appear from? Does this party have a good track record with delivering on promises, practically if they tell you how much but not really how?
You could look at this poll and think it's a win for capital gains. And it is. Sort of. But there's plenty of fodder for an anti-capital gains campaign which is no doubt being workshopped by some ad agency as we speak.
Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.
4 comments:
I am opposed to Labour's CGT but do give them credit it is an attempt to offer up a solution. National can't win the next election on a negative campaign and will need to point to clear policies that offer solutions to the country's problems.
I’m very confused by people wanting more taxes. Why? What reason could you possibly have to want to pay more to the state? I genuinely tie my mind in a pretzel trying to understand the mindset.
Brainwashed by social and colonial guilt......
Bridge says ""So basically, you have squeezed-middle voters telling you they feel too poor to support another tax"".
If correct, it just shows how ignorant middle-voters are about tax. They clearly don't understand how the absence of a CGT currently adds to their existing tax burden. Particularly the PAYE-paying wage and salary earners who can't structure their affairs to get out of paying income tax, but who would probably never be subject to a CGT. They would sing a different tune once they understood how CGT could help reduce their personal income tax rate. People forget how well It worked for Douglas when he introduced GST. That's the carrot the pollies need to offer to get CGT over the line. Not a promise to add to the black hole that comprises Vote Health, which is a totally different conversation.
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