Dave Patterson: China Ends 2025 With Large Provocation

As the calendar year 2025 ended, China conducted one of its most provocative exercises, threatening Taiwan. In the final days of December, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the China Coast Guard (CCG) conducted a joint training operation called Justice Mission 2025 in the Taiwan Strait and other waters surrounding Taiwan. This was the second such exercise that year, simulating a blockade of major Taiwanese ports to shut down transportation to the island as a prelude to an invasion. The first was called Strait Thunder-2025A, conducted April 1-2 of last year, and it had similar objectives.

China Is Stepping Up Its Taiwan Blockade Exercises

There is no secret regarding the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) intentions to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. In a New Year’s speech, the PRC President Xi Jinping announced quite clearly that Taiwan’s days as an independent and autonomously governed state are numbered and that progress toward that end is the goal.

As the US Naval Institute’s USNI News reported, “Chinese President Xi Jinping made no mention of the drills in his New Year Message on Wednesday, naming Taiwan only twice in his speech: touting the establishment of Taiwan Recovery Day in 2025, and saying that reunification with Taiwan was unstoppable.” Beijing has become so bold and brazen in recent years as to demonstrate how the PLAN, supported by the CCG, will carry out the invasion and subjugation of the island state.

The People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command conducted Justice Mission 2025, which involved up to 18 PLAN warships and 14 CCG vessels. The Wall Street Journal published an insightful analysis of the Chinese exercise, explaining:

“Beijing said it was performing maneuvers that would be needed to isolate and seize Taiwan – demonstrating how Chinese forces would try to strangle the self-ruled island and pressure it to surrender or else embark on a painful and risky amphibious invasion. Beijing claims the self-ruled island as its own territory, to be seized by force if necessary … On Tuesday, China fired 27 rockets from its eastern coast, some landing closer to Taiwan’s main island than ever before, said Lt. Gen. Hsieh Jih-sheng, a Taiwan military intelligence official.”

Furthermore, as the WSJ sees it, the PRC wants the US and Japan to stay out of China’s efforts to take control of Taiwan either peacefully or by force if necessary. Both the US and Japan have, however, made it clear they intend to keep Taiwan safe from a hostile takeover. The US recently approved the sale of over $11 billion in weapons to the Taipei government. Japan’s Prime Minister’s recent comment indicates that Japan “could be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan – a remark about a so-called ‘Taiwan contingency’ that drew fury from Beijing,” the WSJ reported.

Justice Mission 2025 was particularly significant not only because it demonstrated the PLAN’s tactics, techniques, and procedures for establishing an impenetrable blockade around Taiwan, but also because it conducted invasion rehearsals. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed: “The exercise reportedly included rehearsals of amphibious and air assault operations off Taiwan’s east coast as well as long-range rocket fire.” ISW also noted that the exercise did not include PLAN aircraft carriers, suggesting that the training was “intended to practice only part of a larger blockade operation.” What should be of interest to the US and its allies is that the blockade drill included counter-intervention operations designed to prevent any attempt by the US or others to come to Taiwan’s aid.

The Flip Side to Beijing’s Drills

There is, of course, a flip side to China’s audacious and threatening maritime drills close to Taiwan. The US, its allies, and the Taiwanese military forces are now aware of precisely how the PLAN and CCG intend to attack Taiwan to force reunification, if it comes to that. The exercise reveals how the PLAN warships would integrate and coordinate with the CCG vessels.

Furthermore, the PRC’s maritime rehearsal identified exactly where its warships and amphibious vessels would be positioned to conduct a blockade in preparation for an invasion. Understanding these locations is useful for pinpointing where US Naval vessels could engage the PLAN if necessary. The frequency of the PLAN’s exercises is instructive of the timing of a potential invasion of Taiwan. Having two major blockade drills in one year may be a harbinger of a conflict sooner than even the most pessimistic geopolitical wonks would otherwise anticipate.

Conducting an effective blockade of Taiwan is an act of war, and it’s essential if China is going to implement an invasion of the island state. Breaking such a blockade is equally critical if, in the event of an attempted invasion, resupplying necessary weapons, ammunition, and civilian foodstuffs and other essentials for day-to-day living were to be provided in sufficient quantities. An active blockade operation would be a warning signal that an amphibious and air assault is not far behind. The numerous drills foretell the location of the incoming enemy. The US, its allies, and the Taiwanese armed forces can practice, too.

Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE