This is the genesis of the saying that nothing happens for decades and then decades happen in a week. This past week seems one of those.
Donald Trump has embraced a contemporary meme: “You can just do things,” like using the military to arrest the president of Venezuela, or launching a pre-emptive war against Iran.
Views differ as to the wisdom of this conflict. I mean, for nearly half a century the Ayatollahs have whipped up crowds to chant death to America and rumour has it they were looking for weapons to achieve their ambition.
It seems reasonable to expect that, eventually, America may want to do something about that.
Views differ as to the wisdom of this conflict. I mean, for nearly half a century the Ayatollahs have whipped up crowds to chant death to America and rumour has it they were looking for weapons to achieve their ambition.
It seems reasonable to expect that, eventually, America may want to do something about that.
Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw the US from
the Nato military alliance. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP
Maybe. Maybe not. Today I want to focus on the response by America’s Nato allies.
“This is not our war” stammered Sir Keir Starmer.
“France did not choose this war. We are not taking part in it,” whimpered the French president.
The German chancellor took a similar simpering approach: “Germany is not part of this war, and we do not want to become part of it”.
Even the chain smoking Trump-friendly Italian prime minister declined to muddy her tunic with the messiness of the conflict, while the Spanish leader roused himself from a siesta to assure everyone that Spain would continue its proud tradition of never standing up for her allies.
To reinforce their unwillingness to sully their good names or alienate domestic voters most of Washington’s purported allies refused permission for Uncle Sam’s aircraft to fly through their airspace or use their bases for this expedition.
Fair enough. Iran is not currently killing Spaniards, Frenchmen or Germans. Why should these nations care if Americans or Israelis die?
But here is the twist. Ukraine isn’t America’s war. Washington does not care if Kiev is overrun by Putin’s stormtroopers. Instead, Trump’s priority is constraining China, and if the price of a rapprochement with Russia is sacrificing Zelenskyy then that is a price he may embrace.
If the Brussels menagerie of invertebrates want to play at realpolitik in refusing to assist their Nato ally in its fight with Tehran why would the United States sacrifice its wider geopolitical agenda to placate Europe?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, talking about Nato, told the media, “I think there’s no doubt, unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we are going to have to re-examine that relationship.”
The Europeans can claim Nato is a defensive alliance and attacking Iran is not defending the United States. This is true. But Ukraine is not in Nato. Nor was Kosovo, Bosnia, Libya or Chad - all examples where Nato nations sought and obtained American help for non-defensive operations.
The decision by Europe not to assist the Americans isn’t unprecedented. Many declined to get involved in Vietnam or Iraq, but actively refusing to allow US planes to use their airspace or US bases on their territory is unprecedented.
Nato has fractured. If we are wondering what happens next, we can look back to our own history. In 1985, we declared ourselves to be nuclear-free. How brave. There was some drama regarding the American don’t-ask don’t tell policy about nuclear powered or armed ships and we moved from being an ally to a friend.
Protected by our isolation and strategic irrelevance, we maintained our virtue while others took responsibility for global security. But the alliance that was central for that security has shattered with the finality of a porcelain vase dropped onto asphalt.
It does not appear that the US president can unilaterally withdraw from the Nato alliance, but does that matter? If Russian tanks were to re-enter the Baltic this summer no amount of pleading from Old World capitals is likely to persuade the current president to sacrifice American lives to preserve an alliance he sees no value in.
Perhaps a new president can create a re-set? Again, look to our history. ANZUS collapsed forty years and ten prime ministers ago. The relationship has improved, but we remain very, very, very good friends, with some intelligence sharing benefits. There are no commitments beyond that.
We have no allies, only unreliable friends in a dramatically more chaotic and fractured world dominated by predatory superpowers where the guardrails against the use of force have been dismantled.
Military adventurism has returned to Europe and the Middle East. It seems probable that this contagion will spread to Southeast Asia.
Today it seems unimaginable that we could be compelled back into armed conflict, but the speed with which events have moved in the last week has proved how quickly old certainties can dissolve.......The full article is published HERE
Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers’ Union and a regular opinion contributor for Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective
Maybe. Maybe not. Today I want to focus on the response by America’s Nato allies.
“This is not our war” stammered Sir Keir Starmer.
“France did not choose this war. We are not taking part in it,” whimpered the French president.
The German chancellor took a similar simpering approach: “Germany is not part of this war, and we do not want to become part of it”.
Even the chain smoking Trump-friendly Italian prime minister declined to muddy her tunic with the messiness of the conflict, while the Spanish leader roused himself from a siesta to assure everyone that Spain would continue its proud tradition of never standing up for her allies.
To reinforce their unwillingness to sully their good names or alienate domestic voters most of Washington’s purported allies refused permission for Uncle Sam’s aircraft to fly through their airspace or use their bases for this expedition.
Fair enough. Iran is not currently killing Spaniards, Frenchmen or Germans. Why should these nations care if Americans or Israelis die?
But here is the twist. Ukraine isn’t America’s war. Washington does not care if Kiev is overrun by Putin’s stormtroopers. Instead, Trump’s priority is constraining China, and if the price of a rapprochement with Russia is sacrificing Zelenskyy then that is a price he may embrace.
If the Brussels menagerie of invertebrates want to play at realpolitik in refusing to assist their Nato ally in its fight with Tehran why would the United States sacrifice its wider geopolitical agenda to placate Europe?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, talking about Nato, told the media, “I think there’s no doubt, unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we are going to have to re-examine that relationship.”
The Europeans can claim Nato is a defensive alliance and attacking Iran is not defending the United States. This is true. But Ukraine is not in Nato. Nor was Kosovo, Bosnia, Libya or Chad - all examples where Nato nations sought and obtained American help for non-defensive operations.
The decision by Europe not to assist the Americans isn’t unprecedented. Many declined to get involved in Vietnam or Iraq, but actively refusing to allow US planes to use their airspace or US bases on their territory is unprecedented.
Nato has fractured. If we are wondering what happens next, we can look back to our own history. In 1985, we declared ourselves to be nuclear-free. How brave. There was some drama regarding the American don’t-ask don’t tell policy about nuclear powered or armed ships and we moved from being an ally to a friend.
Protected by our isolation and strategic irrelevance, we maintained our virtue while others took responsibility for global security. But the alliance that was central for that security has shattered with the finality of a porcelain vase dropped onto asphalt.
It does not appear that the US president can unilaterally withdraw from the Nato alliance, but does that matter? If Russian tanks were to re-enter the Baltic this summer no amount of pleading from Old World capitals is likely to persuade the current president to sacrifice American lives to preserve an alliance he sees no value in.
Perhaps a new president can create a re-set? Again, look to our history. ANZUS collapsed forty years and ten prime ministers ago. The relationship has improved, but we remain very, very, very good friends, with some intelligence sharing benefits. There are no commitments beyond that.
We have no allies, only unreliable friends in a dramatically more chaotic and fractured world dominated by predatory superpowers where the guardrails against the use of force have been dismantled.
Military adventurism has returned to Europe and the Middle East. It seems probable that this contagion will spread to Southeast Asia.
Today it seems unimaginable that we could be compelled back into armed conflict, but the speed with which events have moved in the last week has proved how quickly old certainties can dissolve.......The full article is published HERE
Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers’ Union and a regular opinion contributor for Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective
1 comment:
Maybe if Trump had had the common sense, and also courtesy, to pre-warn his NATO colleagues of his intentions they would have been more amenable to his subsequent requests for assistance?
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