As the 2026 election approaches, many politically engaged New Zealanders find themselves in an uncomfortable position.
The polls are neck and neck. The country appears deeply divided. Yet for a growing number of voters, the choice is not between two inspiring visions for New Zealand. It is a choice between two parties they believe have both failed to confront the same underlying issue.
For years, New Zealand has witnessed the steady growth of race-based governance, co-governance arrangements, tribal influence within public institutions, and the increasingly common assumption that ancestry should influence political power.
Many voters expected the current Government to draw a clear line.
Instead, they see hesitation.
They see a Government willing to challenge some excesses while leaving much of the underlying framework untouched. They see endless consultation with iwi, continued deference to tribal interests, and little appetite for addressing the wider constitutional questions that concern many ordinary New Zealanders.
Meanwhile, the alternative is hardly attractive.
Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori appear committed to accelerating many of the very policies that concern these voters. If elected, few expect the left bloc to slow the momentum of co-governance or race-based decision making. Most expect the opposite. Many expect a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori Government to accelerate a wider constitutional agenda that includes co-governance, race-based decision making, expanding Treaty claims, growing tribal influence over public policy, and increasing recognition of Māori sovereignty concepts.
This leaves many New Zealanders politically stranded.
The National Party appears increasingly reliant on a simple election strategy: reminding voters how much worse the alternative would be.
And perhaps they are right.
Many voters will ultimately support National because they fear what a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori Government might deliver.
But governing through fear of the alternative is not the same as winning genuine voter support.
It is not the same as providing leadership.
It is not the same as addressing the concerns that helped elect the Coalition Government in the first place.
The appointment and promotion of figures such as Tama Potaka, formerly a Maori Party member and a lead negotiator in a Treaty of Waitangi claim, has only reinforced concerns among astute voters that influential voices within National remain sympathetic to many of the concepts the party's supporters expected it to challenge.
Fairly or unfairly, many now question whether National is managing the agenda rather than reversing it.
National campaigned under the slogan "Fixing the Basics, Building the Future." The first part resonates with most New Zealanders. A stronger economy, lower inflation, disciplined spending, and better public services are all worthwhile goals. But it is the second part that increasingly troubles many voters.
Exactly what future is being built?
If National believes it is constructing a future founded on equal citizenship and democratic accountability, it has done little to articulate that vision. Instead, many voters see continued deference to iwi interests, ongoing expansion of Treaty-based arrangements, and a reluctance to confront the constitutional implications of race-based governance.
The result is growing uncertainty about whether National is genuinely changing direction, or merely managing the speed of travel.
This raises a deeper question.
What value is a thriving economy if political equality continues to erode?
What good are stronger growth figures if New Zealand continues down a path where tribal organisations are treated as constitutional partners rather than interest groups?
What is the point of increasing national prosperity if taxpayers are continually expected to fund ever-expanding settlements, consultation processes, cultural programmes, and tribal negotiations, while facing increasing demands for special recognition and influence based on ancestry?
Economic growth matters.
Jobs matter.
Lower inflation matters.
But many voters believe equal citizenship matters too.
In fact, they believe that for the future of New Zealand, it matters more.
A prosperous country built upon unequal political rights is not the New Zealand they thought they were voting to preserve.
That is why the 2026 election presents a dilemma.
For many voters, the question is no longer whether the left bloc would accelerate race-based policies.
They believe it would.
The real question is whether National has the courage to stop race-based policies.
Until that question is answered convincingly, a significant number of New Zealanders will continue to feel trapped between a rock and a hard place.
National may yet win the election. But winning through fear of the alternative is a poor substitute for winning because voters believe you will do what you promised.
Geoff Parker is a passionate advocate for equal rights and a colour blind society.
Many voters expected the current Government to draw a clear line.
Instead, they see hesitation.
They see a Government willing to challenge some excesses while leaving much of the underlying framework untouched. They see endless consultation with iwi, continued deference to tribal interests, and little appetite for addressing the wider constitutional questions that concern many ordinary New Zealanders.
Meanwhile, the alternative is hardly attractive.
Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori appear committed to accelerating many of the very policies that concern these voters. If elected, few expect the left bloc to slow the momentum of co-governance or race-based decision making. Most expect the opposite. Many expect a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori Government to accelerate a wider constitutional agenda that includes co-governance, race-based decision making, expanding Treaty claims, growing tribal influence over public policy, and increasing recognition of Māori sovereignty concepts.
This leaves many New Zealanders politically stranded.
The National Party appears increasingly reliant on a simple election strategy: reminding voters how much worse the alternative would be.
And perhaps they are right.
Many voters will ultimately support National because they fear what a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori Government might deliver.
But governing through fear of the alternative is not the same as winning genuine voter support.
It is not the same as providing leadership.
It is not the same as addressing the concerns that helped elect the Coalition Government in the first place.
The appointment and promotion of figures such as Tama Potaka, formerly a Maori Party member and a lead negotiator in a Treaty of Waitangi claim, has only reinforced concerns among astute voters that influential voices within National remain sympathetic to many of the concepts the party's supporters expected it to challenge.
Fairly or unfairly, many now question whether National is managing the agenda rather than reversing it.
National campaigned under the slogan "Fixing the Basics, Building the Future." The first part resonates with most New Zealanders. A stronger economy, lower inflation, disciplined spending, and better public services are all worthwhile goals. But it is the second part that increasingly troubles many voters.
Exactly what future is being built?
If National believes it is constructing a future founded on equal citizenship and democratic accountability, it has done little to articulate that vision. Instead, many voters see continued deference to iwi interests, ongoing expansion of Treaty-based arrangements, and a reluctance to confront the constitutional implications of race-based governance.
The result is growing uncertainty about whether National is genuinely changing direction, or merely managing the speed of travel.
This raises a deeper question.
What value is a thriving economy if political equality continues to erode?
What good are stronger growth figures if New Zealand continues down a path where tribal organisations are treated as constitutional partners rather than interest groups?
What is the point of increasing national prosperity if taxpayers are continually expected to fund ever-expanding settlements, consultation processes, cultural programmes, and tribal negotiations, while facing increasing demands for special recognition and influence based on ancestry?
Economic growth matters.
Jobs matter.
Lower inflation matters.
But many voters believe equal citizenship matters too.
In fact, they believe that for the future of New Zealand, it matters more.
A prosperous country built upon unequal political rights is not the New Zealand they thought they were voting to preserve.
That is why the 2026 election presents a dilemma.
For many voters, the question is no longer whether the left bloc would accelerate race-based policies.
They believe it would.
The real question is whether National has the courage to stop race-based policies.
Until that question is answered convincingly, a significant number of New Zealanders will continue to feel trapped between a rock and a hard place.
National may yet win the election. But winning through fear of the alternative is a poor substitute for winning because voters believe you will do what you promised.
Geoff Parker is a passionate advocate for equal rights and a colour blind society.
14 comments:
Every economy - strong or weak - exists inside a society. If the social model is not supported by citizens, the nation will flounder and fail.
Overall everyone in NZ wants a performing economy due to its benefits. But they are divided over the social model. Some want democracy, others want an ethnocracy based on ancestral superiority.
Sooner or later - this polarization will impede economic growth and prosperity and destroy overall social cohesion.
This is the consequence of division which is becoming deeper.
If one really wants to understand who runs the country look to the Public Service.
The bureaucrats run political ideology either parallel to, or against whoever they see as ally or foe.
The MBIE immigration example is clear that if they choose to be obtuse and misleading they will do so.
The current government may very well be willing to challenge the 'race based' (among the many) issues but when they have senior, middle management bureaucrats fighting against them it will always be one step forward three back....the same is seen in the climate ideology, when the IPCC (or the like) changes stance the NZ public servants carry on as if the new information is cancer.
Until we have governance with balls to send clear messages to the bureaucrats with menace of sacking (if not implemented) then nothing will change and this country now with zero real political/governmental will, which panders to every niche social justice cause will become the next banana quasi state in the Pacific...
This National government can be summed up with "what you see is not what you get".
What we have got and are going to get is slow economic growth or decline, more co-governance and a lot more migrants
Con job and on the other side nut jobs
Is it time for Seymour to step aside? ACT should be hoovering up votes at the moment, but they are going backwards.
David has held it together for a long time, but he comes across as a bit of a clever dick. Monotone and almost uncomfortable. They/he needs to look at a new face. One with some charisma and spontaneity. Or they will just fade away and head back into the 5% zone of death.
Yes, I too wonder if National has the courage to stop race-based policies. I also wonder if they have accepted the argument for co-governance and are prepared to let it run its course.
I suspect that the Maoris will trash New Zealand. That would then rid the country of the present indolent Parliament. The question then becomes: Will there be sufficient left of our country to put it back together in a better revitalized form.
In my opinion, there is still sufficient of New Zealand now to revision the country into a fantastic world-leading nation, like we did in the old days but perhaps even better.
What a crying shame it would be if it were irredeemably wrecked just to satisfy elite Maori egotism.
Goblins and taniwhas and all those who fear the powers of mystic creatures.
That's who run this mediaeval shire.
Luxo is just waiting until he gets a second term mandate then it’ll be slash and burn on all things woke or race based. Just you wait and see.
Completely disagree CXH.
Hon David Seymour is eloquent and intelligent .He does not read prepared speeches as many on the left do . He answers questions on media standup or in Parliament with clarity and without obfuscation.
What is wrong with an occasional smile ?
It is often said that a fish rots from the head. This seems manifestly true if we look at the quality of our Parliament. The last govt was a fetid swamp of deception, deceit and lies. The present govt promised major improvements and delivered nothing. It is hard to avoid the view that ticking any box on an election paper is voting for a catastrophic and destructive future. But that has been the plan for, maybe, the last 40 years. A bolthole in Australia would make a lot of sense.
Basil, I agree that he is eloquent and intelligent. He can answer on the fly. All good, but he also comes across as a bit too smart and condescending. With Luxon and National in general being so bad, ACT should be eating their lunch. So why aren't they? For me, David comes across as the guy who knows/thinks he is the smartest in the room and enjoys showing it. Personally they need a fresh face going forward.
Anon@9.18 surely you jest? He had a golden opportunity to let Seymour do the dirty work and let the TPB do the work but, no - he deliberately spiked it.
Humpty Dumpty fully deserves his fall, for he misled the nation, and you are truly dreaming if you think he will change.
CXH, I suggest we wait till after the ACT annual meeting this weekend . Maybe the ACT 2026 election announcements will be well timed .
While skipping lunch is OK, it might be a magnificent election dinner in November.
All ACT MPs are good value. They are certainly our best chance to move forward. I look forward to the election launch to come.
Not sure sure about the ACT analysis. Otherwise a strong, masculine article from one of BVs most brilliant minds. We need men like this to take us forward. Keep it up Geoff, fabulous stuff.
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