From the start of the war with Iran, it was clear that the stakes couldn’t have been higher.
If the United States and Israel were to succeed in neutralising the Iranian regime, the outcome wouldn’t just have been the removal of a monstrous threat to Israel, the Iranian people and the world.
It also would have reshaped global politics by tearing apart the web of evil spun by Russia, China and North Korea, at the centre of which squatted the regime on which they all depended — the Islamic Republic of Iran.
If, however, the United States were to lose that war and the Iranian regime remained as a threat, Russia, China and North Korea would be galvanised by the perception that mighty America was in fact a paper tiger, and the whole free world would be placed in even greater danger.
The early successes of the war, which so greatly weakened Iran, suggested that the first option was eminently possible. But now the picture looks very different.
In an article in Foreign Affairs, two pro-Islamic regime analysts, Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr, gloat over what they see as an Iranian victory over America. They write: “The war has given rise to a new Iran, one that will reshape the [Middle East] and influence the course of geopolitics for years to come.”
Despite the fact that this is an Iranian propaganda line, it’s hard not to conclude — incredible as this may seem — that US President Donald Trump is now actually dancing to the tune of Tehran.
On April 8, a ceasefire was declared between Iran and the US-Israel alliance. Since then, Iran has continued to launch attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on Gulf states.
On Tuesday night, it launched drone attacks on Kuwait killing one person and injuring more than 60. Other missiles were intercepted by US and Bahraini air defences.
Since the purported ceasefire with America, Iran has used its proxy army Hezbollah repeatedly to attack Israel military and civilian targets from Lebanon. Unsurprisingly, Israel has responded fiercely.
On April 17, after the Iranian regime — which was behaving like the mafia in the Strait of Hormuz — outrageously complained that Israeli retaliation against Hezbollah was preventing the strait from reopening, Trump pressured Israel into a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Since that ceasefire, 14 Israel Defence Forces soldiers have been killed there. No country could be expected to soft-pedal its defence in such a situation.
To defeat Hezbollah, Israel needs to destroy its nerve centre in the Beirut district known as the Dahiyeh. On Monday, it was about to do so. Alarmed by this very real threat to its vital proxy, Iran threatened to walk away from negotiations with America. As a result, Trump ordered Israel not to attack Beirut and declared another ceasefire.
Three hours later, Hezbollah fired a barrage of missiles at Israel. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, a Hezbollah drone crossed into northern Israel, sending 25,000 Israelis running once more into the bomb shelters. That day, Israel and Lebanon agreed to another dubious ceasefire between the two warring sides.
It is, of course, intolerable for Trump to prevent Israel from doing what it needs to do to protect its citizens against such attacks. Moreover, Trump’s statements appear to fly in the face of reality.
Iran is continuing to wage war against America, Israel and their allies. Throughout it all, however, Trump continues to insist that the United States will only act in self-defence; that the ceasefire is holding; and that Iran is begging for a deal.
On Wednesday, the US president said talks with Iran were “going very well” and that an agreement could happen this weekend. Yet Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said “no tangible progress” has been made in negotiations.
No surprise there: the pattern has set in of Trump making bellicose statements, Iran dangling concessions, Trump backing off, Iran repackaging those concessions as further threats and demands, Iran renewing its attacks and America declaring that negotiations are resuming.
So why is Trump apparently allowing himself to be played like a sucker? And how is Iran able to play him?
After all, the regime has been gravely weakened by the war. America’s naval blockade is having a devastating effect on the Iranian economy, with a 90 per cent drop in exports, oil production slashed in half and electricity supplies severely restricted.
The answer is that Trump is in a trap of his own making through two fundamental and related mistakes.
He thinks he can negotiate the end of the war. The first rule of negotiation, however, is to do so from a position of strength.
Trump could have used Israel as leverage to weaken Iran by crippling Hezbollah. Instead, by holding Israel back from delivering the decisive blow against Iran’s proxy army, he has enabled Iran to use Hezbollah as leverage against Israel.
He has thus weakened his negotiating position. That’s because he thinks his strategy is a winning one.
He thinks that when his blockade of Iranian shipping really starts to bite and Iran runs out of money and food, the regime will start to negotiate seriously to avoid the country being totally destroyed.
But the Tehran regime is run by fanatics who will sacrifice the people, the economy and the country in accordance with their belief that the Shia messiah will be brought to earth through an apocalypse.
Trump thinks every problem can be solved by a deal that only he has the skill to pull off. He doesn’t seem to grasp that some agendas are so uncompromising they are simply non-negotiable.
Trump’s insistence on a deal has given Tehran the scent of victory in its nostrils. For the regime, a deal represents the surrender of America. Every negotiation is viewed as a sign of American weakness and a spur to redouble its attacks.
For the regime, the purpose of these negotiations is not to get the best deal possible for Iran. It’s to force America to surrender.
America’s apparent failure to grasp this is potentially tragic. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the regime is now willing to discuss parts of its nuclear programme that it previously refused to negotiate, signalling potential movement in the talks.
But any deal will be worthless. The Iranian regime is a world-class cheater that has never kept to the terms of any deal it’s ever made, never observed any ceasefire, telling lies reflexively in accordance with the Islamic principle of taqqiya which makes it mandatory to lie in the cause of Islam.
In any event, what exactly is there to negotiate if Trump’s terms are, as they purport to be, the unconditional surrender of Iran?
Behind Trump’s strategic errors, however, lies a more profound — and profoundly worrying — issue. The Iran war is deeply unpopular with the American people. In part, that’s because Trump has never made the case to them that it’s being waged because Iran poses a mortal threat to America itself.
But mostly it’s because American humiliation in Iraq and before that Vietnam, along with decades of anti-West propaganda in American schools and universities, has now made Americans viscerally averse to “boots on the ground” anywhere and any U.=S troops being placed in danger.
A culture that no longer accepts the need for sacrifice in the cause of a just war is a culture that has no future. That’s the desperate situation now of Britain and Western Europe. America is in danger of going the same way.
What started as the United States finally grasping that it had no option but to neutralise Iran, because it was getting perilously close to obtaining nuclear weapons to hit the “Great Satan,” now threatens to turn into a repeat of the 2015 nuclear deal debacle.
That was when Iran used bait-and-switch tactics until the Obama administration surrendered America’s security to fanatics who would eventually get the bomb.
President Trump is now at serious risk of turning into a second Obama. Not just Israel but also the entire free world should be alarmed.
Melanie Phillips is a British journalist, broadcaster and author - you can follow her work on her website HERE
If, however, the United States were to lose that war and the Iranian regime remained as a threat, Russia, China and North Korea would be galvanised by the perception that mighty America was in fact a paper tiger, and the whole free world would be placed in even greater danger.
The early successes of the war, which so greatly weakened Iran, suggested that the first option was eminently possible. But now the picture looks very different.
In an article in Foreign Affairs, two pro-Islamic regime analysts, Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr, gloat over what they see as an Iranian victory over America. They write: “The war has given rise to a new Iran, one that will reshape the [Middle East] and influence the course of geopolitics for years to come.”
Despite the fact that this is an Iranian propaganda line, it’s hard not to conclude — incredible as this may seem — that US President Donald Trump is now actually dancing to the tune of Tehran.
On April 8, a ceasefire was declared between Iran and the US-Israel alliance. Since then, Iran has continued to launch attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on Gulf states.
On Tuesday night, it launched drone attacks on Kuwait killing one person and injuring more than 60. Other missiles were intercepted by US and Bahraini air defences.
Since the purported ceasefire with America, Iran has used its proxy army Hezbollah repeatedly to attack Israel military and civilian targets from Lebanon. Unsurprisingly, Israel has responded fiercely.
On April 17, after the Iranian regime — which was behaving like the mafia in the Strait of Hormuz — outrageously complained that Israeli retaliation against Hezbollah was preventing the strait from reopening, Trump pressured Israel into a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Since that ceasefire, 14 Israel Defence Forces soldiers have been killed there. No country could be expected to soft-pedal its defence in such a situation.
To defeat Hezbollah, Israel needs to destroy its nerve centre in the Beirut district known as the Dahiyeh. On Monday, it was about to do so. Alarmed by this very real threat to its vital proxy, Iran threatened to walk away from negotiations with America. As a result, Trump ordered Israel not to attack Beirut and declared another ceasefire.
Three hours later, Hezbollah fired a barrage of missiles at Israel. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, a Hezbollah drone crossed into northern Israel, sending 25,000 Israelis running once more into the bomb shelters. That day, Israel and Lebanon agreed to another dubious ceasefire between the two warring sides.
It is, of course, intolerable for Trump to prevent Israel from doing what it needs to do to protect its citizens against such attacks. Moreover, Trump’s statements appear to fly in the face of reality.
Iran is continuing to wage war against America, Israel and their allies. Throughout it all, however, Trump continues to insist that the United States will only act in self-defence; that the ceasefire is holding; and that Iran is begging for a deal.
On Wednesday, the US president said talks with Iran were “going very well” and that an agreement could happen this weekend. Yet Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said “no tangible progress” has been made in negotiations.
No surprise there: the pattern has set in of Trump making bellicose statements, Iran dangling concessions, Trump backing off, Iran repackaging those concessions as further threats and demands, Iran renewing its attacks and America declaring that negotiations are resuming.
So why is Trump apparently allowing himself to be played like a sucker? And how is Iran able to play him?
After all, the regime has been gravely weakened by the war. America’s naval blockade is having a devastating effect on the Iranian economy, with a 90 per cent drop in exports, oil production slashed in half and electricity supplies severely restricted.
The answer is that Trump is in a trap of his own making through two fundamental and related mistakes.
He thinks he can negotiate the end of the war. The first rule of negotiation, however, is to do so from a position of strength.
Trump could have used Israel as leverage to weaken Iran by crippling Hezbollah. Instead, by holding Israel back from delivering the decisive blow against Iran’s proxy army, he has enabled Iran to use Hezbollah as leverage against Israel.
He has thus weakened his negotiating position. That’s because he thinks his strategy is a winning one.
He thinks that when his blockade of Iranian shipping really starts to bite and Iran runs out of money and food, the regime will start to negotiate seriously to avoid the country being totally destroyed.
But the Tehran regime is run by fanatics who will sacrifice the people, the economy and the country in accordance with their belief that the Shia messiah will be brought to earth through an apocalypse.
Trump thinks every problem can be solved by a deal that only he has the skill to pull off. He doesn’t seem to grasp that some agendas are so uncompromising they are simply non-negotiable.
Trump’s insistence on a deal has given Tehran the scent of victory in its nostrils. For the regime, a deal represents the surrender of America. Every negotiation is viewed as a sign of American weakness and a spur to redouble its attacks.
For the regime, the purpose of these negotiations is not to get the best deal possible for Iran. It’s to force America to surrender.
America’s apparent failure to grasp this is potentially tragic. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the regime is now willing to discuss parts of its nuclear programme that it previously refused to negotiate, signalling potential movement in the talks.
But any deal will be worthless. The Iranian regime is a world-class cheater that has never kept to the terms of any deal it’s ever made, never observed any ceasefire, telling lies reflexively in accordance with the Islamic principle of taqqiya which makes it mandatory to lie in the cause of Islam.
In any event, what exactly is there to negotiate if Trump’s terms are, as they purport to be, the unconditional surrender of Iran?
Behind Trump’s strategic errors, however, lies a more profound — and profoundly worrying — issue. The Iran war is deeply unpopular with the American people. In part, that’s because Trump has never made the case to them that it’s being waged because Iran poses a mortal threat to America itself.
But mostly it’s because American humiliation in Iraq and before that Vietnam, along with decades of anti-West propaganda in American schools and universities, has now made Americans viscerally averse to “boots on the ground” anywhere and any U.=S troops being placed in danger.
A culture that no longer accepts the need for sacrifice in the cause of a just war is a culture that has no future. That’s the desperate situation now of Britain and Western Europe. America is in danger of going the same way.
What started as the United States finally grasping that it had no option but to neutralise Iran, because it was getting perilously close to obtaining nuclear weapons to hit the “Great Satan,” now threatens to turn into a repeat of the 2015 nuclear deal debacle.
That was when Iran used bait-and-switch tactics until the Obama administration surrendered America’s security to fanatics who would eventually get the bomb.
President Trump is now at serious risk of turning into a second Obama. Not just Israel but also the entire free world should be alarmed.
Melanie Phillips is a British journalist, broadcaster and author - you can follow her work on her website HERE
18 comments:
How can one negotiate/deal with an entity which has its fingers and toes crossed behind its back?
The real problem is that half of America, plus most of the West, would prefer Iran to win than allow Trump any success. They are so blinded by hatred of one man, they would burn their society to the ground than allow him to succeed.
Melanie Philips exposes clearly why it is so damaging for the United States to be under the influence of a 5th column pushing Jewish interests to the clear detriment of America's interests. War with Iran is an Israeli aim, not an American one. In fact, it hurts America.
Jews like Melanie don't care about anyone's interests except her coethnics in Israel, to the point that they find it intolerable when larger powers like the United States resile from advancing the Jewish agenda. The United States would demonstrably be better off having close relationships with Iran rather than Israel. The reason they don't is because there is not an Iranian 5th column undermining the United States, but there is a Jewish/Israeli one.
Further to my previous comment, Melanie Philips, and most other Jewish commentators, are engaged in a practice called "Hasbara." That is, under the guise of advancing the interests of "the entire free world" as she puts it, she and others are actually pushing an exclusively Jewish ethnic agenda. "Hasbara" is the Hebrew term for public advocacy, and strategic communications by Jews used to promote Israel's image, policies, and narrative to international audiences.
Quite why an Iran that can stand up to Israel is a matter for the entire world, and not just Israelis and diaspora Jews, is never really explained, and is an unevidenced and unexamined presupposition.
As I have tried to explain , but get censored for is that this is a highly religious war , and without understanding the Judeo - Christian perception on the land of Israel and its people and instead assessing it on only secular terms , it is not possible to understand , why Trump and a fraction of America believe it is significant.
As others including myself have commented on occasion, wars between Israel and its Muslim neighbours are indeed driven to a large extent by religious considerations. No knowledgeable commentator describes it "only in secular terms". But Anon 821 has only half the religious story: the Muslim half that says their god granted Palestine to the Jews initially but then transferred it to the Muslims after the Jews had shat their nest. The relevance of all this bullshit today is that the ultraorthodox parties in the Knesset want to reclaim the lands occupied by the ancient Kingdoms of Israel and Judea while the Muslim fundamentalists want to reclaim all of Palestine. And never the twain can meet.
'From the River to the Sea ' chanting faction of pro-Palestine want to wipe Israel and the Jews out altogether.
Your intense dislike of historical Judaism and their God, illustrated here by colourful language , I believe biases your perspective , Barend . A significant proportion of the world still believe in that God, and many of them are in America.
A significant portion of the world believe in lots of silly things, Anon 1148. The appeal to the authority of the masses has no credibility. Even less so when you add that many Yanks believe in it - so what? The land of naivete and self-righteousness taken to the extreme, whether they're god-botherers or secular. And I'm the one who's biased?
Now perhaps we can get back to the issue. I agreed with you that the Palestine issue was indeed largely a religious one (what informed commentator would not?) and pointed out that you had omitted the Muslim perspective. Perhaps it is your "intense dislike of [Islam] [that]... biases your perspective"?
Israel no longer has the luxury of claiming its ancestral rights to the homeland.
Given its current occupation is as a result of a UN sponsored creation, and the abuse of that severignty by most muslim states, particularly Iran, its sole focus needs be the defence of its people. Religious freedoms or heritage have little to do with the modern struggle for survival.
You'd better tell that to the Greater Israel crowd, Clive. They're the ones who continue to award themselves the 'luxury' of building those illegal extraterritorial settlements from which gangs of thugs terrorise local Arabs. If Israel's priority was with defending its people, it would rein those Zionist expansionists in.
Oh really
The “expansionists” as you call them are responding to the repeated attacks from Iranian Islamic proxy states either in Lebanon, the West Bank or Gaza. The only way to successfully accommodate these attacks is to extend the boundaries they have to defend.
As with the attacks from Gaza and Sth Lebanon
It is no longer safe for Israelis living just across the border.
My guess is that Hezbolah and Hamas will now have to do their shooting from a distance that gives the Israelis time to defend against these attacks. If that means occupying land across the border then that is the price Arabs will pay for their stated desire to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth.
What would you do faced with a similar situation of a homeland under constant threat? They have no choice.
All these Woke hand wringers need to wake up to reality.
Clive, the Greater Israel project goes back to the 19thC before the modern State of Israel was even founded and even longer before the Islamic Republic of Iran was born.
Ironically, it was the Persians (Iranians) who liberated the Jews from bondage in Babylon (Iraq) in the 6thC BCE. That got Cyrus I a lot of brownie points from the Jews but they're probably still regretting that aspect of their imperial history over in Teheran (just joking..... I think).
You ask me what I would do if I were in a similar situation. Let's just focus on this one. I would do a deal whereby I would force those illegal extraterritorial settlements to close down in return for the recognition of my internationally recognised borders. Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco already do. Saudi Arabia has said that it will do so once the Palestinian issue of resolved - the road is clear for negotiations.
I am no "woke hand wringer", Clive. It is a serious error of judgement on your part to treat me like one.
How do you deal with people ( Iran and its terrorist proxies ) who, unlike the other Arab states you mention have nothing to do with the daily attacks, have only one objective and it sure as hell doesn’t involve the recognition of the Jewish State.
You may not consider yourself woke Barend but your oft self proclaimed superior knowledge of history suggests you are a denier of reality.
Too bad.
How do you deal with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, you mean, Clive?
Israel will need to show good will by (with apologies to other readers for having to labour this point) removing those illegal extraterritorial settlements and withdrawing from Lebanon and Gaza on condition that hostilities against the Jewish state as defined by its internationally recognised borders cease. This may sound like a tall order but it is doable providing Bibi Netanyahu can rein in the ultraorthodox or simply pull the rug from under them electorally.
It is of vital importance that Riyadh be brought round to recognising Israel. Saudi Arabia is the world capital of Sunni Islam and other Sunni states that have not done so yet would follow suit. A severely weakened Iran - leader of the Shia section of the Muslim world - would find itself with few if any nations prepared to lend it any support.
This may all sound pie-in-the-sky but if Clive has any better ideas, I'd love to hear them. After all, he's the one who claims to have the grip on reality.
My final comment
Of course that is who l mean!
And the answer appears to be - you can’t any other way than through the use of ultimate force .Agreements that last are always based on mutual trust and that just happens to be the missing ingredient when dealing with these low life.
Previous Presidents Biden and Obama have failed dismally trying to do this and it is becoming obvious that Trump , for all his good intentions in wanting to save lives, will end up having to abandon the negotiations as well.
My guess is that a renewal of the combined US and Israeli targeted attacks will begin again within the next week or so.
And you are wrong suggesting l am the one claiming to have a handle on reality.
What l said was - you obviously don’t!
"Ultimate force"? Are you suggesting nuking them, Clive?
Not that you are advocating any sort of solution here, just seemingly intent on keeping the violence going. Real helpful, that.
An ultimate solution simply has to be a negotiated one. And it MUST include Israeli abandonment of the Greater Israel project.
Incidentally, your sweeping use of the term 'low life' tells me quite a bit about you, and the news ain't good.
Barend
You will hopefully understand why l am forced to break my promise of no more comments in this exchange.
If you are game enough to re read my last email you will note the accuracy of my predictions in light of today’s Trump decision to resume limited strategic attacks on Iran’s infrastructure.
It is also worth noting that today is the final 60th day of Trump’s deadline for negotiations.
Time’s up so he is keeping his word of resorting to the only other option.
Your suggestion that he was contemplating a nuclear strike is as absurd as your idea that the Palestinian question would be solved by negotiations.
It all makes your self proclaimed authority on Middle Eastern history sound a little silly don’t you think?
And that really is my last word in this exchange.
Clive, you have problems reading English composition. I did not claim DJT was contemplating a nuclear strike - you implied it by the term "ultimate force".
I am no authority on ME history and have never claimed to be, but I do have a knowledge base that appears to dwarf yours.
Anyway, you appear to regard yourself to be a prophet of sorts, so I guess you can write the news in advance from now on, it saves us all from having to get it from the newspaper or internet.
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