Estimates of illicit tobacco use in Aotearoa New Zealand differ sharply. Although tobacco industry-funded studies suggest the illicit tobacco market is large and growing rapidly, independent research has consistently found much lower levels.
However, evidence that border seizures have increased, alongside rapid growth in Australia’s illicit tobacco market, suggests Aotearoa must act now to prevent illicit tobacco from becoming established and undermining efforts to reduce smoking.
For years they have denied there is a problem, but finally the evidence is so overwhelming, they can’t deny it. This is progress I guess.
First, Aotearoa should accede to the World Health Organisation’s Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. This requires parties to control the tobacco supply chain by licensing all importers, distributors and retailers, thus creating greater accountability throughout the supply chain.
Regulators would allocate licences after applicants underwent a “fit and proper person” assessment and licence holders would have to maintain detailed sales records, to enable monitoring. Licensing would enable regulators to manage the location and number of tobacco retailers, helping prevent clusters of outlets near schools or in lower-income communities.
This will actually grow the black market. The harder you make it for legal retailers, the easier you make it for illegal retailers.
Second, stronger regulation must occur alongside expanded border enforcement. Illicit tobacco threatens communities’ wellbeing and puts Aotearoa’s biosecurity at risk. Customs and the Ministry for Primary Industries need additional funding to support greatly expanded screening alongside investment in advanced detection technologies capable of identifying and intercepting illicit imports before they reach the domestic market.
Agree here.
Third, enforcement must include the domestic market. Reports of illicit tobacco sales through existing retailers, at pop-up stores, via in-person and online markets, and from private houses, suggest suppliers are already developing diverse distribution channels; these require a swift and decisive response to shut them down.
Also agree.
Fourth, penalties for non-compliance must increase. The reported low cost of producing illicit cigarettes, means laws need to be fit-for-purpose. Penalties for supplying illicit tobacco must be severe and Smokefree Enforcement Officers should have powers to impose store closure orders and large on-the-spot fines. Other penalties should include imprisonment and deportation, where appropriate.
Again I agree. Excellent.
Fifth, as well as integrating processes to detect and deter illicit tobacco trade, Aotearoa needs comprehensive surveillance of illicit tobacco activity, including ongoing analyses of border interceptions and domestic seizures, monitoring of social media marketplaces and research into purchase patterns. Regular monitoring of reported illicit tobacco use, including prices paid, products used and their sources, would help target resources and provide baseline data to evaluate measures taken.
Also fine.
Finally, and crucially, Aotearoa needs more effective measures to decrease smoking prevalence, including maintaining the high excise taxes that have reduced smoking prevalence and remain a key reason why people who smoke try to quit. Proposals to freeze or lower excise taxes will increase smoking rates; that may enhance tobacco companies’ profits, but it will lead to more completely avoidable deaths.
Here is where their ideology interferes. There can be no doubt that the massive increase in the cost of legal tobacco has fuelled the explosion in the black market.
Increasing the price through excise tax was once a very good measure to decrease smoking. Ten years ago I was saying that excise tax increases would be better than the unproven theory of plain packaging. And the excise tax increases worked – until they didn’t. There comes a price point where you have pushed out all the smokers who are price sensitive, and then you just have the hard core who will remain smokers regardless, and they swap to the black market.
This is common sense. Increasing a pack of cigarettes from say $10 to $12 didn’t fuel the black market, but having them go to $36 did. If the retail price was $100 do you think the black market would be more or less than today? More, of course.
Now I agree there is no point in cutting excise tax. The sad reality is that once you have pushed a huge number of smokers into the black market, a small reduction in legal price will not get them back. The damage done is not easily reversible.
But further increases to excise tax is a very dumb idea. It will drive more people into the black market where there is no regulation, no tax, no health warnings etc.
So their points 2 to 4 are fine. Their points 1 and 6 are ideology over evidence.
But credit where credit is due. Just having them acknowledge there is a problem is a big step forward to evidence based policy.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
6 comments:
We need a major Waitangi Tribunal report, costing several million dollars, to investigate and present conclusions that nobody would guess--because, you know, all these WT reports present shockingly original ideas and insights.
Is Farrier a tobacco lobbyist??
Smoking kills so ban it. Being fat kills also, so why no ban on Maccas and KFC?
If smoking is a form of intelligence test then restrictions should be entirely lifted. This would be remarkably beneficial for the country over the next couple of generations. For obvious reasons.
Late last year while I was working in a psychiatric ward a young female patient was busy negotiating with other patients re the sharing of cigs and tobacco. They can't always get leave to go and buy them. She was from a small Taranaki town and told me that at the local hotel (pub really) cigs could be had for half the normal price via under the counter arrangements. She told me the cigs came in illegally via Port Taranaki and crew, in this case Japanese, knew how to get them ashore past any checks and then on to buyers. She was known in the town as a customer and got them via a hotel staff member. I have to be vague about this on here. The high cost of cigs will not stop people who feel they need cigs from buying them, especially people with issues who are comforted by smoking. Lecturing them about smoking serves no purpose other than to wind them up.
I was a smoker for 55 years, habitual for 48 of those. My wife was a smoker for 47 years, coinciding with the time we had been together when we quit 5 years ago.
I was a roll-your-own smoker. For 46 years I started every day with rolling 30 ciggies for my wife's Old Holborn tobacco tin. Now there's true love if ever there was.
We spent most of the past 46 years outside NZ in countries where just about everyone smokes - PNG, Botswana and Lebanon. I was buying Samson Halfzwaar (Dutch) 50g pouches for a few dollars in Lebanon. Then came Covid19 and economic meltdown and we decided to return to NZ. I looked up the price of Port Royal and it was around $140. No bloody way, says we. So 3 days before travelling back to NZ we locked ourselves in a 4-start hotel room in Turkey (where we'd been waiting 6 months for a place in the MIQ system) and went cold turkey. Th trip was over 3 days/2 nights without entering a country in transit, and then of course a week's quarantine. And we gave up the booze during that time as well, Result: 2 non-smokers who have not had a single puff since.
But if we win Powerball you bet we'll be back onto the weed the next day (same day if any outlets are still open). The excuse about healthcare costs for dying smokers to tax smokers out of existence is one huge lie. According to their figures, non-smokers live 14 years longer than smokers. But that's 14 years most of which are post-age 65 so we are into escalating geriatric care costs and of course NZ Superannuation. Do the sums and you'll find that smokers do the system a favour by popping off early. They should be subsidising us and thereby encouraging us to die younger and save the State all those costs!
Post a Comment
Thank you for joining the discussion. Breaking Views welcomes respectful contributions that enrich the debate. Please ensure your comments are not defamatory, derogatory or disruptive. We appreciate your cooperation.