Or if they hadn't, I assumed they would, so yesterday as I watched came as no surprise.
What possible connection is there between a centre-right coalition that extends out to the NZ First nationalism, to the ACT libertarianism, and the National low tax, classic centrist view of the world, and a party that hasn’t even got the 5% and wants to hand out money to everyone, whether they need it or want it or not?
The Opportunity Party is the darling of the media who are showing either another form of bias previously reserved for Labour and the Greens, or an unhealthy obsession, driven perhaps by boredom and the light relief of a new game in town.
Either way the fact is they have had an astonishing amount of coverage for a group that isn't in Parliament, nor have they produced a poll that gets them there.
In other words, we dabble with unusual amounts of energy in mindless speculation.
Also playing into the party's hands is this absurd idea, although clever from a marketing point of view, that they remain open to talk to anyone interested.
The fact that that isn't realistic doesn’t seem to occur to anyone currently knee-deep in their obsession.
My broad rule of thumb when dealing with anyone showing signs of life post an election is at least three credible polls that have them above, and preferably significantly above, the threshold, which in our system is 5%.
They have no candidate that credibly looks to win a seat so the 5% is their sole route in. And as we have said, there isn't a single poll that has them in that position.
So we are, as was pointed out by the Prime Minister, yet again dabbing in a seemingly never-ending pool of speculation and guess work.
Labour could well work with them because they are desperate to replace the Māori Party and because they like taxing people, which also dovetails in with the Green's view of the world.
This is bad news for Opportunity, who still want you to believe they are centrist when they are no such thing.
There isn't a centre right party in the world who has ever spruiked universal incomes.
So they aren't on 5% and they aren't centrist or anywhere close.
So the Government ruling them out is obvious. It's not a surprise, or a shock, or news.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
Either way the fact is they have had an astonishing amount of coverage for a group that isn't in Parliament, nor have they produced a poll that gets them there.
In other words, we dabble with unusual amounts of energy in mindless speculation.
Also playing into the party's hands is this absurd idea, although clever from a marketing point of view, that they remain open to talk to anyone interested.
The fact that that isn't realistic doesn’t seem to occur to anyone currently knee-deep in their obsession.
My broad rule of thumb when dealing with anyone showing signs of life post an election is at least three credible polls that have them above, and preferably significantly above, the threshold, which in our system is 5%.
They have no candidate that credibly looks to win a seat so the 5% is their sole route in. And as we have said, there isn't a single poll that has them in that position.
So we are, as was pointed out by the Prime Minister, yet again dabbing in a seemingly never-ending pool of speculation and guess work.
Labour could well work with them because they are desperate to replace the Māori Party and because they like taxing people, which also dovetails in with the Green's view of the world.
This is bad news for Opportunity, who still want you to believe they are centrist when they are no such thing.
There isn't a centre right party in the world who has ever spruiked universal incomes.
So they aren't on 5% and they aren't centrist or anywhere close.
So the Government ruling them out is obvious. It's not a surprise, or a shock, or news.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
9 comments:
Certainly not to be overlooked is also the fact that one of TOP's candidates was a co-author of He Puapua. While that might not have put Luxon off, it certainly will the majority of New Zealander's once that 'little gem' becomes more widely known, and we know how our PM likes to appeal to everyone. Of course, the public won't hear of this from our leftist msm, who revel in destabilising the coalition.
There is no UBI for pensioners, just a land tax on the family home until the day you die. Nice one TOP
Don't the darling little lefties in the msm own houses? Or if they don't and are renting, have they not stopped to consider how much their rents will increase by, if their BFF's from The Opportunity Party impose land tax on their landlords? Even if that particular tax is not accepted by the left coalition other taxes are coming from the left.
Anon 908 yet again we have a person not understanding how market driven economies function. NZ is market driven, and as a result, the price of rent is set at the boundary of what the market is willing to bear. I’m ok trying to educate one person at a time in economics, it is a slow burn however. The more you know!
Anon 9.36 if taxes rise across the board such as capital gains or property tax , sone investors may selll their properties or stop building new ones. This refuces the housing supply which drives prices up. Look at what is happening in New York right now thanks to Mamdani. Rents are soaring to record levels under his socialist system. Opportunity are further left than Mamdani.
TOP is about wealth transfer and enforced equalisation, not a real concern about property prices. If it was the latter one could easily introduce not a complex CGT with its inevitable accounting loopholes but a straightforward tax on the gross sale prices of properties, say 5pc on the first 500k, 7.5 pc on the next 500k etc and throw the book at the inevitably cunning real estate folk who will try to fiddle. CGTs have not lowered property prices in other countries and I know from my own relatives in UK there are ways to legally work around CGT's to some extent. What we do need in my view is decent quality rental builds, like some I see MSD doing, but no just for MSD clients but for those of us ( me included) who would happily sell their larger 3 bedroom home and section and opt to paying rent instead. With some guarantee of long tenure. I do see private apartment blocks going up in my city but the units cost far more than many of us would get for our houses. It is what it is.
This falsehood cannot be allowed to propagate “Look at what is happening in New York right now thanks to Mamdani. Rents are soaring”. This is palpably untrue
New York is thriving as never before. Mamdani has terrified the right because he is succeeding on both social AND economic fronts. The veneer is shattered and Americans will find out that it can be done!
Anon 8.51 how is new york thriving when 57 000 apartments remain empty. A shortage of peoperties increases rents. .
Anon 1252 “sone investors may selll their properties” - Who will they sell them to? More people in home ownership means less people renting means less demand for rent, which pushes rents downward.
Did you happen to learn economics at high school? There are community education classes that cover the basics. Cost is no barrier.
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