The importance of this is based on the simple premise that this election is about one thing, which is the state of the place.
Is it getting better, or not?
Do you see a brighter future, or not?
Forget all the other issues and policies because they're frippery. All that matters is the state of your wallet, your finances, your lifestyle, your hopes and your aspirations.
The Government will argue they inherited a mess and it was so big that it takes time to turn it all around.
For a while they had us onside. We believed them, mainly because it was true.
History will show what labour did 2017-23, and particularly 2020-23 is one for the record books.
Things were coming right until the war then the momentum was lost.
It's now back, to a degree. GDP is growing and major sectors like manufacturing and services are in expansion. Jobs are still an issue and confidence is fragile.
So their job is to re-convince you that they had it in hand but Trump got in the way. "Just stick with us and she'll be right".
So, to the poll Horizon did in the early part of this month.
31% say yep, it's Trump's fault. 17% say it was Labour. But 29% say it's on this Government.
Now like all polls, you can read it a million ways. The 31% who say Trump and the 17% who say Labour makes 48%. That is not a majority.
31%, 17% and the 29% blaming the Government makes up 77%, so that’s 23% who don't know.
Between the "don’t knows" and the 48% you can talk your way to victory. But if the 23% of "don't knows" go with the 17%, at 40% that's a lot of people who don’t believe you and you're in trouble.
You could be positive and suggest that the 29% who think it's on the Government is not actually that many, so their argument is landing well.
But they would need to swing a few of the "don’t knows" their way to make sure.
Either way, this is what this vote comes down to. The evidence, although there and growing, is not cemented in enough yet to feel really confident.
On these numbers I would rather be the Government than not.
But on these numbers it is still all there to play for.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
The Government will argue they inherited a mess and it was so big that it takes time to turn it all around.
For a while they had us onside. We believed them, mainly because it was true.
History will show what labour did 2017-23, and particularly 2020-23 is one for the record books.
Things were coming right until the war then the momentum was lost.
It's now back, to a degree. GDP is growing and major sectors like manufacturing and services are in expansion. Jobs are still an issue and confidence is fragile.
So their job is to re-convince you that they had it in hand but Trump got in the way. "Just stick with us and she'll be right".
So, to the poll Horizon did in the early part of this month.
31% say yep, it's Trump's fault. 17% say it was Labour. But 29% say it's on this Government.
Now like all polls, you can read it a million ways. The 31% who say Trump and the 17% who say Labour makes 48%. That is not a majority.
31%, 17% and the 29% blaming the Government makes up 77%, so that’s 23% who don't know.
Between the "don’t knows" and the 48% you can talk your way to victory. But if the 23% of "don't knows" go with the 17%, at 40% that's a lot of people who don’t believe you and you're in trouble.
You could be positive and suggest that the 29% who think it's on the Government is not actually that many, so their argument is landing well.
But they would need to swing a few of the "don’t knows" their way to make sure.
Either way, this is what this vote comes down to. The evidence, although there and growing, is not cemented in enough yet to feel really confident.
On these numbers I would rather be the Government than not.
But on these numbers it is still all there to play for.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
5 comments:
No Mike, the thing deciding this election is the Maori takeover of our government and drain on our economy. But you and the media do not mention this. Why?
You couldn't be more wrong Mike.
It's the racist attitude of Luxon who you will not challenge on Monday mornings.
He fiddles with the economy and pretends that NZ is not sliding even more quickly into an apartheid state while he turns a blind eye.
Mike you are not stupid, you are becoming complicit in the splitting of NZ into ,Maori and others.
Why ?
I agree equality is a very big issue this election. Non equality and the maori grifting/extortion is getting the attention of more and more people.
The unjust use of taxpayer money - we need equality if we are to be successful
Ahh...no. Democracy and equal citizens rights are at stake in our lovely country. Some wealthy people are insulated from this. Those with unlimited wealth have options.
Surely it is the role of the government to manage the economy to the best of their ability, for all citizens? Why do we say, every year, that this issue is what will decide the government? Why don't they diligently apply themselves to this task from day one?
In my circles the race agenda is not a big issue (aprt from me) because the TV and oline and print media ignore it apart from the attacks on old white men
Post a Comment
Thank you for joining the discussion. Breaking Views welcomes respectful contributions that enrich the debate. Please ensure your comments are not defamatory, derogatory or disruptive. We appreciate your cooperation.